Remember the Population Bomb. The book was released in 1968 although it was the culmination of ‘scientific’ ‘research’ going back a decade. The claim was that the world’s human population was increasing so dramatically that calamity was within sight and food supplies would be overwhelmed. It was claimed that famine in the US was inevitable and that India was already a lost cause.

By the mid-1970s the assumed truth of the bomb was accepted by most and became a matter of faith for many. Although less hysterical voices were raised against the claims of the latter-day Malthusians, they were either drowned out or ridiculed into silence. This is how ‘scientific consensus’ is achieved in modern science.

This week a new study was released by The Club of Rome which was “carried out by the Earth4All collective of leading environmental science and economic institutions, including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Stockholm Resilience Centre and the BI Norwegian Business School,”. It predicts that “on current trends the world population will reach a high of 8.8 billion before the middle of the century, then decline rapidly.”

Oops. No mass famines. No over-reaching of Gaia’s resources. Yet another case of mass hysteria debunked. (But fear not, there’s plenty of others to replace it).

We didn’t have famine because humankind continued to innovate and find new ways to get more food from the same or fewer resources. The Green Revolution, led by Norman Borlaug (a name most won’t know) defeated the famine. The names of those who remained clear-headed throughout the hysteria will also be forgotten.

Population is declining in most parts of the world. Even China is now officially in decline although their government has probably been hiding a population decline for the past decade.

So, we never get to 9 billion. World population in decline by 2050 and probably halved by 2100. Another scare soon to be forgotten. How long before the Apocalyptic Climate scare suffers the same fate.

mhaze,

There's always a tipping point - wonder when we'll reach it?

Btw, no widespread famines ... here's why.

"It has been called one of the greatest inventions of the 20th Century, and without it almost half the world's population would not be alive today.

A hundred years ago two German chemists, Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch, devised a way to transform nitrogen in the air into fertiliser, using what became known as the Haber-Bosch process."

... "Demand for fertiliser is projected to double in the coming century. In truth, scientists still do not fully understand the long-term impact on the environment of converting so much stable, inert nitrogen from the air into various other, highly reactive chemical compounds.

We are in the middle of a global experiment.

One result is already clear: plenty of food for lots more people.

If you look at a graph of global population, you will see it shoot upwards just as Haber-Bosch fertilisers start being widely applied."
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38305504

mhaze,
It did go off you just didn't hear the bang !

Poirot,

Certainly the invention of modern fertilizer techniques are what allowed the massive population growth in the first part of the 20th century. But that had largely achieved most of its efficacy by the 1960s when the great Population Bomb scare was evolving.

Those who bought the scare already factored modern fertiliser techniques into the equation. What made the difference (and even those who pushed the failed imminent famine scares concede this) was the Green Revolution which used selective breeding to massively improve yields. Norman Borlaug won a Nobel for his efforts here and is credited with saving a billion lives... http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1997/01/forgotten-benefactor-of-humanity/306101/). These new strains of grains increased yields so dramatically that, despite the continued population increase, food production per capita jumped by around 20%.

Despite the best (or worst) efforts of the green lobby, GMA foods seem to be doing the same thing all over again.

Its the effects of the Green Revolution which averted famine in India and allows it to now be a net exporter of food.

Imagine what will happen with continued per acre improvements in yields AND a declining population. We already see it in some parts of the world where marginal lands, that were previously cultivated because of need, are being returned to the wilderness. The US currently has more trees than it did at the time of Columbus although at least part of that is due to the decimation of the buffalo herds.

Still, we can fully expect man's foot-print on the planet to be vastly lower in 2100 than it is in 2023.

expect man's foot-print on the planet to be vastly lower in 2100 than it is in 2023.
mhaze,
Well, if it isn't lower then there won't be a human left to make a foot print !

650,000 extra people will be arriving in Australia over the next two years. It's our own population increase we should be worried about, not world population.