The Forum > General Discussion > The Bomb that failed to detonate
The Bomb that failed to detonate
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So India has more people than China - so what? That wasn't even close to the point.
Canem,
Malthusian thought is based on the idea that if population continues to grow and food production doesn't grow or grows at a slower pace then.....famine. Its been wrong from the outset - even Malthus finally admitted he'd got it wrong. And Ehrlich, who wrote the Population Bomb admitted he'd completely underestimated humankind's ability to increase food production.
Its the same principle we see in lots of other areas - take one trend and assume it will continue while all other related areas remain unchanged and then declare imminent disaster. eg if we continue to use oil but don't look for or find new oil we get peak oil. But we never do.
You say that we are headed for 10 billion by 2050. But that's the point of the thread - new research showing that to be wrong given the current state of population growth. There are very few countries in the world where population is increasing and of those many (like Australia) are only increasing due to immigration and those that still have a higher birthrate than deathrate, are also showing a declining birthrate.
You may not like the numbers but just rejecting them because they tell a story different to that you're used to hearing isn't really valid.
I guess its still possible to argue that the declining birthrates are a phenomena that might reverse, but its clear that every time economic advancement kicks in, we get a slowing in population increases and eventually a declining population.