The Russian defense industrial base’s inability to address munitions shortages will likely hinder the ability of Russian forces to sustain offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023. US and Ukrainian officials told CNN on January 10 that Russia’s daily rate of artillery fire has decreased in some areas by 75%, a historic low since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022.[13] These officials noted that Russian forces may be rationing artillery shells as a result of dwindling supplies, or could be reassessing their tactics. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian forces previously depleted their reserves of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells and other reserves over the summer of 2022 under an assumption that excessive artillery fire would lead to faster results.[14] Cherevaty noted that Russian forces must now transfer additional shells from rear areas in Russia and purchase additional munitions from foreign countries to counteract such shortages, resulting in a reduced rate of fire. Cherevaty added that Ukrainian strikes against Russian ammunition depots and logistics have also inhibited Russia’s ability to unload munitions close to the frontlines, reducing the intensity of Russia’s artillery fire.[15]

Russian sources are increasingly also acknowledging that Russia’s ammunition and supply shortages are decisively impeding the ability of Russian forces to advance. A prominent Russian milblogger (and member of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mobilization working group) stated on a federal TV program that Russian force generation efforts such as mobilization are not sufficient, noting that Russia’s success on the frontlines is contingent upon its economy and military-industrial complex.[16] ISW had previously assessed that the Kremlin’s force generation campaigns are unlikely to decisively affect the course of the war unless Russia addresses its fundamental problems with supplying its war effort in Ukraine. Russian forces achieved some victories in the first stages of the invasion due to Russia’s rapid use of its manpower and reliance on artillery superiority, and the Kremlin’s inability to replace expended personnel and munitions may further undermine its ability to wage protracted combat.

Looks like Klishchiivka has been captured or is close to it.
Russians may soon have fire control over all the roads into Bakhmut giving them an operational encirclement.
- Ukrainians will have to withdraw or stay and risk capture, maybe a week maybe two at most I'd guess.
Siversk, Lyman, Izyum coming.

Kreminna's not likely to happen, AFU sent many troops south to reinforce Soledar a week ago.

'The last days of the Russian Empire' Lol
- It's a slippery slope that one SM...
Almost sounds like you're just begging for someone to get nuked.

AC,

Satellite photos show that about 5000 Russians were killed with an estimated 10 000 severely wounded to take Solidar. This is a huge price to pay for a village that used to hold 10 000 people. As for breaking out to Lyman etc Russia is a long long way from being able to do this. Meanwhile, Ukraine has taken Dibrova and Kusmyne to the east of Kreminna and the army is now on the outskirts of Kremina.

While NATO is shipping hundreds of potent armoured vehicles (and now tanks) to Ukraine, Russia is losing them way faster than it can replace them.

With the oil cap and EU ban, Russia is now selling less oil at a far lower price than it did last year (about $50/barrel), and after running a huge deficit in 2022 the financial outlook for Russia in 2023 is looking dire. Russia's war chest is emptying faster and faster.

AC,

If you want to get some idea of what's happening to Russia's economy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKi6QMGI2N8&t=1303s

Now the idiots in Canberra are sending Australian soldiers off to train Ukraine's, and put us further offside with Russia, a country that is no threat to Australia, but which could become one if we keep pandering to the most corrupt country in Europe that means absolutely nothing to us. Any country that would prefer to be destroyed than come to some arrangement to prevent what is happening is not worth saving. No country from that part of the world could, or would even want to, come to our aid if the same thing was happening to Australia.

Instead of giving aid and equipment that we can't afford to give, we should be looking to our own problems with China and the tinpot blackmailers in our own region,

During WW2, when we had a population of less than 8 million, we had 10 army divisions. Now we have 2! And playground-type equipment, some of which we are giving away to bloody Ukraine.