I reckon Turnbull's the man because he's hungry and the ALP don't look like breaking through. Beazley and Costello have been around too long and look shopsoiled. The longer Pete lounges around waiting for the Prime Ministership to drop in his lap, the more likely he is to be overtaken by those waiting in the wings. Andrew Robb looks like a perfect future Deputy - pretty solid.

On the ALP side, Rudd looks like the best option because he at least has a go. While Gillard is intelligent, there'd have to be some doubts about her ability to handle the rough and tough stuff that a PM would be subject to. The glimmer twins (Steven Smith and Wayne Swan) don't look strong enough to me, while Tanner would make the perfect deputy. For mine, that only leaves Rudd from the current bunch.

RobP has the situation by the short and curleys:
"I reckon Turnbull's the man because he is hungry and the ALP don't look like breaking through."
Profound!
Turnbull has the form, the ethics, the principles,the resources to do it; the ALP the desperate needs:
John Howard retires, Costello gets the nod pre-election in spite of everything. Turnbull jumps ship, out-stacks the stacking powers of ALP's right, and is considered as the necessary equipment for the party's obtaining government; and takes them to power. (As Bob Hawke pointed out, what is the point of having good policy if you can't attain governnmet).

Well forget anyone from the ALP left, while rounding up the strays from the left the majority slipped away.
Its these new conservative voters that will vote for the next ALP goverment.
Just days ago I too heard Bill shorten talk, for about the tenth time.
He spoke very well and impressed me and female listeners never missed a word.
It will take some one from the party right to turn this around, while Howard is increaseingly abandoning his battlers and they him, policys and leadership are needed.
Those who decry the likeness of both partys overlook the fact its majority voters who demand centerist goverments.
And from my view a change is a must.

From your feedback, I gather the following - that Costello is a clear favourite but not a certainty to become the next PM. The longer he waits the more it diminishes his appeal.

Also Costello does not have a brand identity - ie. he is missing in action on a number of key issues. Costello really must push his own view of Australian values and outline how he fits within this.

It is a tough balance because he can appear disloyal for doing so. How Costello places himself on issues he doesn't fully agree with Howard on in the next 12 months will be vital. Will he be a values free zone? or will he overplay his hand? or will he get it right?

It's high risk stakes for Costello. If he overplays his hand he may move out of favour with his party, but if he simply stays in the shadows people will wonder what the fuss was all about.

As for the ALP - well it's a limp wristed handbag of a rag - not much to say. Oh that's unfair. I think they are doing a lot better than many claim and are a good chance at the next election if only they listen to Craig Emerson on policy and disregard anybody who had a hand in that collossal misjudgement - Medicare Gold!

Belly, if working people have to rely on the likes of Bill Shorten, as a leader, an awu{Australia's Weakest Union}man, then it will be a sad day, it seems as what people in the street say is correct " it doesn't matter who wins, they are both the same" the ALP is supposed to provide not only an opposition, but an alternative government, Shorten is so right wing, he is probably a mirror image of Howard. It's time the ALP provided a raft of policy, and went about selling it, it's either the "we agree" tactic, or the 'opposition for the sake of opposing" tactic, which is why the ALP has lost the previous elections. They need to come up with a constructive set of policies accross all portfolio's that will apeal to ordinary Australian's that is the only way they will win. The ALP has a disturbing history, of ignoring it's members to give people like Shorten "safe seats" instead if the Party thinks he is so great, why not put him up in a marginal seat, so he can win one extra for the Party? An alternative is what people are searching for, not a duplicate of the USA, two conservative parties, why can't the ALP come to the centre of politics instead of the right, if they did, they may find people really appreciate an alternative, and vote for them. Howards popularity is down, but Beazley's is not up, what does that tell you, as an ALP activist?

Do you truely hold the view that you are always right? that those who have a differing view are always wrong?
My AWU has at times had problems all unions have.
That hated but well know lefty slur Australias Weakest Union is leftist junk mail.
It will not go unnoticed that radical unions sometimes thugs and mugs bought Howards rath on the whole movement.
Seak your leftist utopia but you will seach in vain it will never get a start in Australia.
The AWU a great Australian union has helped the NSW ALP right give Australia and our state great direction and leadership, remind me of Australias last leftist Prime Minister.
And who from the left last ruled NSW?
And those who once denounced the AWU on construction sites have stoped! might well be because they have been unable to match AWU service levels and growth in membership.
Howard is the workers enemy but if I must defend our first union that lives and grows still today be aware winners are grinners.