The idea of either Costello or Beazley leading Australia is the stuff of nightmares. McCarthy sums up very well what is surely the opinion of the electorate on Costello. As for Bealey, well he is a two time loser, and the ALP is due for another leader anyway - if there is one in the current shower, that is

I think people have quickly forgotten that Mr Howard was once viewed with similar eyes before he got to prove himself.

I think we emphasise too much on the fear factor of a new PM, the longer Johnny is in the harder it is for us to see someone replace him, that is all.

In essence, Australia is a ship and their will still be a ship regardless of their being a new captain.

John Howard most would agree is by no means the Greatest PM who has ever governed the country. He is not the Andrew Johns or Micheal Jordan of his discipline. He is part of a team.

We need strength, Yes, and we will get it. Leadership does that. Kim Beasley will Be the Man.

There really is a void in national Australian politics at the moment. All that power with absolutely no principles. And I think that the proposed Anti-terror laws and new industrial relations regime is about setting Howard's vision for Australia in concrete, and for the long term.
Corin McCarthy seems to wonder where democracy will lead to in Australia. And seems a little bewildered. I think that Howard is playing to destroy our democracy. Politics won't be about vision if "Emperor Howard" gets his way. It would be about eliminating realistic contenders, keeping a show Opposition and maintaining a state of emergency. If you want to know who the successors to Howard might be, keep an eye out for the Far-Righters in the Liberal Party, that's my opinion.
Just start reading those proposed anti-terror laws and consider the way that Ruddock ran DIMIA; and by the way - we do not have a bill of human rights in Australia.
Not looking good at the moment - there are no obvious leaders-in-waiting, and the rules are about to be changed in nasty, brutish ways...

My guess is McCain, Brown and .... Turnbull.

Sadly I find myself agreeing with RobP, if nothing changes on the Labor side of politics, the only three or four possible contenders I can see are Stephen Smith, Lindsay Tanner, Julia Gillard or Kevin Rudd, who are capable of leading the Labor Party with any chance of turning the leadership question around. Kim Beazley, has been a good Minister in the past, but he has shown over the previous nine years he is not cut out for the leadership. A fresh face is required now, to make a mark before the next election, if Labor are to have any chance of success, with Peter Costello being a member of Hillsong religous cult, I can't see people warming to him, and Malcolm Turnbull probably has a chance as a fresh face, all the confidence that being a multi-millionaire provides, and he has proven leadership qualities in the Republic debate, has released his own policies, in the face of Costello, if the Liberals win the next election, I would not be surprised to see Malcolm Turnbull at the helm.

Mmm Shonga, I think you are right about Beazley- he just dosn't have the gift of the seven-second news grab. But I would edit your list to just two- Stephen Smith and Julia Gillard. Although I think that Rudd is a highly competent policy person- he always comes across in interviews as well across his portfolio etc- he dosn't have much presence. Tanner just hasn't been getting any face-time lately, and I can't see it happening anytime soon.

As for the Coalition, I don't think they would promote Turnbull- they seem to have a strong sense of order, in terms of people 'waiting their turn', and he is not even a Minister at this stage. I think Petey will be it- none of the other senior ministers stand out as electable to me... Downer is an idiot, Abbott is too polarising, Andrews has no presence... and Ruddock looks and talks like he has eaten too many lemons in a sitting. Not to mention having presided over the Immigration Dept debarcle

"Beazley has suffered because of his earlier small-target strategy, even though he holds strong values."

That's news to me. I doubt that anyone in the country could state Kim's "values" including himself. This is because of the Labor Party's concern with popular opinion rather than principles. They've done more backflips than a circus performer attempting to use as their platform some ill defined "Aussie" identity from the past as their mainstay. Trouble is, there never was an Aussie identity, and if there was it changes every other day.

Let's face it the Labor Party is waaay out of touch and anyone from their current ranks, at least federally, has been carefully selected by the dysfunctional Party process over the last 20 yrs.

In essence ..a dud.

After five more years of John Howard, Australia will be a fascist state and talk of the next PM will be irrelevant.

I am not at all complacent regarding some orderly ongoing democracy in this country. I fully expect the issue of voluntary voting to get a good run in this current term. Perhaps another $55+M advertising campaign telling us how its our CHOICE wether we vote or not. Why should the poor and disenfranchised vote? There is no party prepared to look out for them.The ALP is riddled with the idiot sons of former ALP luminaries, i wont name them.

i somehow doubt that turnbull cares who is in line ahead of him.

Ok: "Howard for his part has mastered "high alert politics". Australians feel as threatened as the Americans and the British. This is breathtaking because it shows how the public has responded to Howard's constant message on international security and terrorism. It appears an absurd claim given there has been no attack on mainland Australia, but the public has taken it on trust."

I'll admit that with the Sydney raids, I have some explaining. Apologies for the leap into the abyss followed by the crash. Unlike most journos I'll happily accept the criticism.

Thanks for your comments so far. I thought the piece a little too much a "sketch" looking for detail. It is very difficult to do justice a topic (Australia and the change of world leaders) that requiries a book.

That said I think the sketch has allowed for your ideas to fill the gaps. Bravo for doing so.

Corin

I believe that the world will be a better place when Messrs. Bush, Blair and Howard have left the political scene. Who will replace them? Someone better I hope.

Corin McCarthy, don't be too hard on yourself, Howard has form, when it comes to not telling the truth. How do we tell when he is or is not? 80% of people surveyed thought he was telling pork pies, and given his track record, Children overboard, the never ever GST and many more, how can people trust this man, it's impossible, his theory is as old as Nepolean, divide and conquer, and have people anxious, so that they are much less likely to change horses. It is typical Liberal Party approach, like his predecessor Pig Iron Bob Menzies and "the reds under the beds", this is only an updated version, Australians seem to forget why we have employed ASIO, and the Federal Police, it is to keep us safe, they have been around for decades, and the arrests in Sydney and Melbourne proves it. Personally I believe we are under little chance of attack, as these agencies always have suspects under survielance, since Hodel St nearly 30 years ago.

Whoever replaces Blair and Bush are matters for the public and politicians of UK and USA respectively, Australia is a bystander in such matters and will need to adapt to whatever outcome the electoral processes of those sovereign nations resolve.

As for Australia - John Howard will not go on forever and change will happen. When it does I am sure the Liberal coalition will resolve the issue in their usual exemplary manner.

They have never been so bereft of talent or desparate as the Labor opposition who basically threw all their support behind a bipolar thug, a cynical strategy which has resulted in a deeper malaise and aggrevated decline in their political fortunes.

Sadly Costello and Beazley have no colours to show us; a bit like the hapless emperor without any clothes really.

Costello languishes like an evergreen aspidistra in Howards ever present shadow and Beazley, indeed most of the ALP, base every move on what Howard does - they rely on him to come up with an idea to agree with - terorrism and the like - or an initiative that they can oppose because some one told them thats what an opposition does.

The ALP for the longest time has forgotten that an opposition is supposed to present the image of a government in waiting, a viable alternative and a model of leadership.

Costello like the spoiled prince of the sun god is just waiting for the current ruler to drop off his perch - no one has told him the old buggers feet are so firmly glued to that stick that even when he's dead his supporter will try to kid us he's just resting.

Costello's only real claim to fame was the Dollar Sweets case against the unions a very long time ago - since then, particularly in governemnt, he's been on auto-pilot assuming his rise to the top is gauranteed.

We need niether Costello or Beazley to show us their colours - and I suggest beige is the best we'll get - so much as we need new ideas.

Gee, it's great that all you educated people know this, but their are a bunch of idiots out there that do the real voting.

They are the same people that go, "Look McDonalds is really healthy now, let's all feed our inner children" and walk off merrily skipping to the golden arches with the lovely acoustic tune from the ad in their heads.
They also go, "Oh John Howard's workplace agreements aren't so bad, look at the lady nursing her baby, and listen to the lovely acoustic tune, well, he's right we need to do this so we can move ahead." And then they continue watching Australian idol to see about the more important votes that are being counted.

It doen't matter who we vote for, if the US and England vote for the right wings we will get them too. We don't have minds of our own.

As a Labor party activist we have to understand the party lost the last two elections Howard did not need to break into a trot to win.
Crean/Latham? good lord how could eather win?
However the party has swallowed that humble pie and the chances of Gillard ever leading us are zero.
The party can no longer endlessly look for leftist votes to gain power while turning its back on the new conservatives we helped Howard creat.
While Kim will struggle to win he would lead extremly well,however Steve Smith and Bill Shorten hold the future of ALP voters no other will do.
Shorten should win one of about 15 byelections to remove ALP dead wood in the second quarter of next year.

Belly, can u tell me exactly what has Bill Shorten ever done? He as i understand it was an Organising Works graduate from the ACTU now defunct Organising Centre. He allegedly has a wealthy Father in Law. I have heard some say he is the Business Community ALP canditate.I have seen him speak and have been less than impressed. Belly i am desperate for a new Labor Leader, but it sure aint Billy.I have heard others talk about Mark Butler the SA LHMU Leader. He is from the left so i suspect his prospects are dim. He certainly has the ability, although i hear his background is the Libs, with two former direct relatives Liberal State Premiers. The poor punters , is there a clever Train Driver on the horizon.

I reckon Turnbull's the man because he's hungry and the ALP don't look like breaking through. Beazley and Costello have been around too long and look shopsoiled. The longer Pete lounges around waiting for the Prime Ministership to drop in his lap, the more likely he is to be overtaken by those waiting in the wings. Andrew Robb looks like a perfect future Deputy - pretty solid.

On the ALP side, Rudd looks like the best option because he at least has a go. While Gillard is intelligent, there'd have to be some doubts about her ability to handle the rough and tough stuff that a PM would be subject to. The glimmer twins (Steven Smith and Wayne Swan) don't look strong enough to me, while Tanner would make the perfect deputy. For mine, that only leaves Rudd from the current bunch.

RobP has the situation by the short and curleys:
"I reckon Turnbull's the man because he is hungry and the ALP don't look like breaking through."
Profound!
Turnbull has the form, the ethics, the principles,the resources to do it; the ALP the desperate needs:
John Howard retires, Costello gets the nod pre-election in spite of everything. Turnbull jumps ship, out-stacks the stacking powers of ALP's right, and is considered as the necessary equipment for the party's obtaining government; and takes them to power. (As Bob Hawke pointed out, what is the point of having good policy if you can't attain governnmet).

Well forget anyone from the ALP left, while rounding up the strays from the left the majority slipped away.
Its these new conservative voters that will vote for the next ALP goverment.
Just days ago I too heard Bill shorten talk, for about the tenth time.
He spoke very well and impressed me and female listeners never missed a word.
It will take some one from the party right to turn this around, while Howard is increaseingly abandoning his battlers and they him, policys and leadership are needed.
Those who decry the likeness of both partys overlook the fact its majority voters who demand centerist goverments.
And from my view a change is a must.

From your feedback, I gather the following - that Costello is a clear favourite but not a certainty to become the next PM. The longer he waits the more it diminishes his appeal.

Also Costello does not have a brand identity - ie. he is missing in action on a number of key issues. Costello really must push his own view of Australian values and outline how he fits within this.

It is a tough balance because he can appear disloyal for doing so. How Costello places himself on issues he doesn't fully agree with Howard on in the next 12 months will be vital. Will he be a values free zone? or will he overplay his hand? or will he get it right?

It's high risk stakes for Costello. If he overplays his hand he may move out of favour with his party, but if he simply stays in the shadows people will wonder what the fuss was all about.

As for the ALP - well it's a limp wristed handbag of a rag - not much to say. Oh that's unfair. I think they are doing a lot better than many claim and are a good chance at the next election if only they listen to Craig Emerson on policy and disregard anybody who had a hand in that collossal misjudgement - Medicare Gold!

Belly, if working people have to rely on the likes of Bill Shorten, as a leader, an awu{Australia's Weakest Union}man, then it will be a sad day, it seems as what people in the street say is correct " it doesn't matter who wins, they are both the same" the ALP is supposed to provide not only an opposition, but an alternative government, Shorten is so right wing, he is probably a mirror image of Howard. It's time the ALP provided a raft of policy, and went about selling it, it's either the "we agree" tactic, or the 'opposition for the sake of opposing" tactic, which is why the ALP has lost the previous elections. They need to come up with a constructive set of policies accross all portfolio's that will apeal to ordinary Australian's that is the only way they will win. The ALP has a disturbing history, of ignoring it's members to give people like Shorten "safe seats" instead if the Party thinks he is so great, why not put him up in a marginal seat, so he can win one extra for the Party? An alternative is what people are searching for, not a duplicate of the USA, two conservative parties, why can't the ALP come to the centre of politics instead of the right, if they did, they may find people really appreciate an alternative, and vote for them. Howards popularity is down, but Beazley's is not up, what does that tell you, as an ALP activist?

Do you truely hold the view that you are always right? that those who have a differing view are always wrong?
My AWU has at times had problems all unions have.
That hated but well know lefty slur Australias Weakest Union is leftist junk mail.
It will not go unnoticed that radical unions sometimes thugs and mugs bought Howards rath on the whole movement.
Seak your leftist utopia but you will seach in vain it will never get a start in Australia.
The AWU a great Australian union has helped the NSW ALP right give Australia and our state great direction and leadership, remind me of Australias last leftist Prime Minister.
And who from the left last ruled NSW?
And those who once denounced the AWU on construction sites have stoped! might well be because they have been unable to match AWU service levels and growth in membership.
Howard is the workers enemy but if I must defend our first union that lives and grows still today be aware winners are grinners.

Belly, Do you have a problem with literacy? I mentioned nothing in my post concerning "the left", What I asked was why dont the ALP move to the CENTRE, perhaps you also have a cmprehension problem, as you say the awu is increasing it's membership, which is very true, but nyou fail to mention how it is doing that. In Queensland, is it done by the awu undercutting other unions, e.g former Australian company MIM Mt Isa Mines site, the awu applied to cover the whole site, and of course MIM were delighted, they would rather contend with the awu, than other unions who actually represent their members with gusto. My opinion is one formed from personal experience with the awu, when my wife woked for Townsville's Casino. She had a problem, my union the ASU would bend over backwards to assist me in any workplace grievence I had, but when I went to the awu on behalf of my wife, the Branch Secretary had to be pressured into taking some action, and then, did nothing for my wife, that was of any use.
The awu seems to gain members through agreements with employers rather than recruiting new members any other way, as they take the company's side in every dispute that I have been involved with them.
I once worked at a nickel refinery, had to join as part of the conditions of the job, as the awu had made an agreement with the employer, and any issue that arose the organiser would turn up and ask us to go back to work, even if we had a safety issue. We had to, as a group apply pressure to him, to actually represent us, all you "left paronoia" of utopia ect suggests that the right is always right, and never wrong, if this is the case, I repeat, God help the workforce,

Well yes I in fact do have a problem with literacy, see I left school at age 12 years and ten months for good.
I had rarely atended in any case, work and helping to feed the survivers of my 15 siblings came first yes 16 kids.
My reading was learnt far later and writeing was harder still, spelling and gramar?asking a bit much.
But in what way is IQ messured by good formation of letters? how can your opinion be of more value than mine because of differing life experences?
My union ,my members are growing and thats fact.
We gain membership because we outservice others and get results without threats and fear tactics.
Each card I HAND OUT EVERY SINGLE ONE! has these words from me given with it as it comes back signed,^I will NEVER let you down^
And I MEAN IT!
If I could come to your wifes worksite I would work free of charge to fix her problems honestly!
See I have a fatel flaw, with my sole my very heart and guts I think it is an honour and a priveledge to be a union official.
That 24/7 a union official must understand he sits in a seat others fought for and he is duty bound to leave it better for those to come.
Indivuals do let this movement and those who own it the workers down in all unions.
I will not withdraw my remarks about leftist unions my union is right with those who always elect Australian goverments , middle Australia.

workers and working class values did not begin with unions.

Belly, i am sure your hearts in the right place. However calling the AWU a top Union is risable. Wake up and smell the Roses. I am sure you are a loyal foot soldier with no influence over AWU machinations, however take it from me, they are Grubby, grubby and downright untrustworthy. Your Billy is the Big End of towns reserve player, just in case Labor ever gets back in to power.You cant back him and claim to back the workers.One of his best mates is the head of the Institute of Public Affairs. Before u respond, check out who they are and what they do.

Rainier “workers and working class values did not begin with unions. “

I agree with that statement

However

I am a worker – presently 6 day a week between a government role, a finance company role, a computer company role and a consultancy company role.

My parents might have been called “working / middle” class (that is working class and broke because they scraped enough together to afford to pay a house mortgage and call themselves middle class). I perosonally only measure myself by socio-economic grouping – a classless state usually associated with the degree of financial independence.

“Working class” is just a label which means nothing to anyone who can think.

“working class values” is an oxymoron which is really an absence of real values and bland acceptance of the lowest common denominator.

As for unions – workers and working class values are the drums which the union movement beat in their soulless rant to divide and conquer.

As I heard on the Radio in the past few days – the problem with the union movement is they have focused on confrontational issues of power and control and ignored the real aspirational opportunities which abound.

Working class means nothing to anyone who can think!? be confedent in your self its ok, but are you just a bit to easely convinced?
My AWU yes it is mine but far from a foot soldier I speak for me.
For my lifes expeareances and for the great AWU.
Finding Shorten in the center is calming for me, my every brain cell tells me that is the only place voters look for leadership in Australia.
Long ago the light on that hill turned off, like middle Australia I eat and live well, but look for reforms crafted by a careing goverment not hacked out with an axe.
Can you not understand radical unionism far from protecting workers rights bought this on us?
Far from shrinking the AWU has held its membership and without effort became a refuge for unionists who find and seak us out as a refuge from radicalism.
My heart is indeed in the right place, with ALL unions and ALL workers against Howard till death.
In time soon to come prisons will hold many who will not back down to Howard both officials and members will be arrested, at that time I will have little doupt that I at least am both proud AUSSIE and working class.

Go Belly.

Belly
i appreciate your personal background, and your passionate expression of your desire to better the conditions of 'workers'.

Have you ever thought of applying your passion to self employement ?
Clearly you have drive.
I've seen the unions at work near me... Johnson tiles and the thuggery which went on there. You might be 'Mr Clean' and even 'Mr Holy' when it comes to tactics, and this is commendable. If only more were like you.

I suppose you have already thought of this, but.... do you see the situation between 'workers' and 'employers' as one of class warfare ?

I can accept a degree of organization of employed people, because there are times when things do need to be resolved collectively.

Sadly, it often deteriorates (with encouragement from certain Union reps) into a 'Them/Us class warfare' type of mentality.

From that point, it becomes all about "How much can we get out of this mongrel boss" who, in turn is by now thinking "Screw them, they don't care about the competitiveness of the company.. "

So, somewhere between these 2 extremes there is room for a constructive, (not class based) cooperative and positive contribution from labor professionals (and I would class yourself in that category) who can offer help in such matters.

It should NEVER be about 'getting more' for the 'workers' it should always be about "making the company a more productive and competitive industrial force, with an inclusive rewarding culture"

Personally, I think it begins and ends in the Scriptures for all levels of society.

"If my people, who are called by My Name.. will humble themselves and pray, and seek my face, then will I hear from Heaven and heal their land" (II Chronicles 7.13)

David, I hope you don't mind if I agree with you here. After years of being an employee, I am now self-employed and far, far happier as a result.

My experience with unions has generally been worse than my experience with employers. I have never been involved with an employer who worked on the basis of hatred.

As for leaders, the Liberal Party needs to be dragged back to its liberal roots - there is nothing even vaguely liberal about the party under Howard. Labor, meanwhile, would do well to find itself a leader of some sort. Beazley is as inspiring as last week's soup.

Ever tried self employment? yes and it worked for a while but I paid too much in wages and employed one person too many.
How do I tell you of why I am a beleaver in trade unions ? the history that they have in bringing justice to those who only have labour to sell?
First place me firmly just and only just left of center, I can never beleave the world owes me or anyone a liveing.
I can not suport leftist dreams or actions that fail to understand most by far of Us are from the middle.
Thugish unions ? yes without doupt they not only exist but some put us in the position of all unions , but not just unions please ,workers under threat by this IR reform.
No person should be a union official who fails to understand its an honour, preveredge , and a duty to represent the people who own the union workers.
Yes a duty, duty to act with pride and fairness, to understand the boss needs to make a liveing from his investment to be able to pay his workers.
But to also understand some bosses are [thankfully not all] grubs who regard workers as slaves.
I must stay away from my thoughts on radicalism in unions, I want to be free to continue to serve my members for a while yet.
But yes unions need to refocus and some slugs who are non productive leachs need to go now.
Unions must replace leaveing people only with proven performers who understand this is not just a job.
So yes reform unions , and rebuild we will but please understand unions are not all alike my union is branded weak because we talk issues out not declareing war.
Like the Labor party and in truth the conservatives, unions are driven by factions I proudly sit in the most productive faction with Labors NSW right and the AWU.
One thing you can bank on bad bosses will grow and if only you could come for one day with me you would understand that.

Belly "Ever tried self employment? yes and it worked for a while but I paid too much in wages and employed one person too many."

I have been self employed for the past 20 years or so.

During that time my "fortunates" have waxed and waned.

However, during that time, I have lived my life and never kow-towed to the demands of employer or union. I have walked away, never to return, from jobs and turned my back on massive incomes rather than allow someone to think they "owned me". I have never sought union intervention or withdrawn my skills to suit their agenda.

We have one life, and an expectation to live it to the full. No boss nor union official.

Self employment is a fabulous lifestyle provided you are prepared to pay the price for it. Self employment requires energy and inventiveness. Self em[ployment demands self-esteem and self-reliance. Through self employment we develop our own self to a greater degree than being someone elses servant (either boss or union official).

We have (theoretically) but one life - why waste it building up someone elses ego when you could be building your own character, spirit and individuality.

Belly and Boaz have a conversation. Its time to end this blog. It is clear all intelligent commentary on the lead article has come to an end.

No not so we drifted a bit that I will grant you my beleaf in A new revitalised alp stands unchalanged.
And my view that new leaders such as Shorten and our Greg from the actu along with Steven Smith are that team.
However this union official fails to fit the mold of class warrior that many seem to find in the union/Labor movement.
That unrealistic view is out of a distant past.
Labor will continue to find its self in the center of politics the home of all Australian goverments, unions will find new strengths on the same block.

Belly reinforces the point. Blog ends.

It doesn't really matter who comes to power.

As long as Australians remain apathetic, self interested and willing to accept lies from their leaders, they will get the leaders they deserve.

Only when they start demanding higher standards, an objective media and a focus on things wider than the economy, will there be a chance of better leaders emerging.

The problem with the statement above is that the Howard Government, with the passive help of the ALP, is fostering a social environment of crisis. People withdraw into a kind of political apathy, all while playing up how well things are really going for themselves. But in this environment the popular will lashes out and destroys anything that the media can paint as 'elitist', even things such as the rule of law and human rights. This only makes things worse and entrenches these populist, and truly pathetic, leaders in positions of power. Such a nasty vicious cycle...