I wonder whether Syria could split into three mutually antagonistic statelets? In some ways that may be the best outcome.I would not like to be an Alawite, Kurd or Christian in Syria if the rebels win.

If the Kurds in the North of Syria are able to join forces with their fellows in the North of Iraq both Turkey and Iran would face major headaches. One or both may become embroiled in an unwinnable war.

A de facto Kurdistan could become to Turkey what Afghanistan was to the Soviet Union.

And what would be the fate of Hezbollah if it lost its supply lines from Iran through Syria? Would that tilt the balance of power in Lebanon?

For what it's worth I think Lebanon will escape a collapse into total civil war. I don't think anyone wants a repeat of 1975-90. But there could be some bloodshed along the way.

Interesting times.

…And so far the unasked question: where is Israel in all of this? Not “sitting it out meekly” in deck chairs on the Golan Heights I bet! Ho, Ho...

LOL diver dan

I was wondering when someone would bring up Israel. I thought it might be you.

Well here's my tuppeny ha'porth.

On the whole, I think the Israelis would have been happy for Assad to continue, not because he was their friend, but because any replacement could easily be worse. They knew his regime was inherently unstable. They knew it could probably not survive the stress of a war with Israel. So Assad would always be cautious - all bluster with little danger of action.

To put it another way, I think the Israelis and the Assads had developed a modus vivendi.

Now that the rebellion has started the best end game for Israel would probably be the breakup of Syria along the lines I've described. The mutual fear of the bits of Syria for each other would probably overwhelm their hatred of Jews.

It would not surprise me if it turned out the Israelis were providing some assistance to the Kurds. An emergent Kurdistan would provide a major headache for two foes, Iran and the newly Islamist Turkey. On the other hand a beleaguered Kurdistan is likely to pose little danger for Israel.

Another possible outcome could be the emergence of a Saudi dominated Salafist Syria. This would not necessarily be so bad for Israel as it would for Iran. To some extent what we are seeing now in Syria is a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

In general it is always better if your enemies to fight each other. It means they have fewer resources to fight you. And under some circumstances it may be a shrewd move to help the process along.

So, in answer to your question diver dan, I strongly doubt that the Israelis ignited the current conflict in Syria. But now that it's underway I am sure they will capitalise on any opportunities that present themselves. That's what any state surrounded by enemies would do

Syria is full of Western Mercenaries stirring up trouble.They are attacking Syria because it is an ally of Iran.

We could write the same article about the USA which is broke and war mongerering its way around the planet.

When I'd had time to absorb 9 / 11 attack I concluded that the occupants of the World Trade Center were caught in the crossfire of a civil war that was raging across the Islamic world.

Here are some examples:

The Egyptian-American journalist, Mona Eltahawy, squares off against Israel supporter Alan Dershowitz, February 2011.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPjSPBFAB2U

The same Mona Eltahawy on The Guardian website, October 2012:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/video/2012/oct/29/mona-eltahawy-egyptian-sexual-harassed-video

Even if you click on no other links in this post, watch the two videos I've linked above. They' each about 5 minutes.

Whatever you may think of Dershowitz he obviously had a better grasp of the outcomes for Egypt.

From "The Scotsman" newspaper today:
Thousands protest over ‘Islamisation’ of Turkey

http://www.scotsman.com/news/international/thousands-protest-over-islamisation-of-turkey-1-2604592

And here is the much-arrested Nobel-prize winning Turkish author, Orhan Pamuk, also in the Guardian yesterday:

Europe is turning away from Turkey – and the rest of the world

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/26/europe-turning-away-turkey-world

The title is misleading. Pamuk's problem are not Europe but increasing Islamisation in his own country.

His concluding paragraph is:

>>It is clear that this fear is leading Europe to put up walls at its borders, and to gradually turn away from the world. As the slogan of liberté, égalité, fraternité is slowly forgotten, Europe will sadly turn into an increasingly conservative place dominated by religious and ethnic identities.>>

However much the same could be said for Turkey. Istanbul, once a vibrant multicultural city with a large Jewish population is now almost 100% Muslim.

Then we have the ongoing Sunni persecution of Shia, Christians and Ahamdiyya.

See:

Intolerant Indonesia
Feb 13, 2011 10:00 AM EST
In Java, Muslim hardliners target 'apostates.'

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/02/13/intolerant-indonesia.html

Most of the post-invasion carnage in Iraq was due to sectarian conflicts between Sunni and various Shia factions.

And everywhere the Sufis are persecuted:

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2009/01/25/mystical_power/?page=full

Especially latterly in post-revolution Libya

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/25/sufi-muslim-shrine-libya_n_1830495.html

And, as ever, the one common factor is hatred of Jews.

http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/3614.htm

http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/al-ahram-the-jews-caught-a-fat-fish-with-morsis-hate-video/2012/10/25/

And of course there is the case of Malala Yousafzai:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-20125347

With that many pathologies rife in the Muslim world imagining an American or Jewish plot behind every outbreak of violence seems a bit silly.

Well Stevenlmeyer have a look at this site http://www.ae911truth.org/ There are now over 1700 Architects and Engineers + ( 15000 other supporters) willing to lay their reputation on the line saying that not only the towers were a controlled demolition but so was building 7.You see Steven it all can be proven in a few short sentences.It is impossible for concrete reinforced steel buildings or plain brick for that matter to come down at near free fall speeds unless some sort of explosive is involved.Then there is thousands of pieces of evidence that absolutely demolish the official conspiracy theory.

There is evidence according to Prof Chris Busby that the USA has not only been using Depleted Uranium in Iraq but some form of new mini-nuke.The birth deformities in Falluja are off the scale.3 children per day are born with serious birth defects.http://www.globalresearch.ca/ So don't lecture us on the tribal infighting.One million Iraqis are dead because Western forces invaded Iraq for their oil.