I wonder whether Syria could split into three mutually antagonistic statelets? In some ways that may be the best outcome.I would not like to be an Alawite, Kurd or Christian in Syria if the rebels win.

If the Kurds in the North of Syria are able to join forces with their fellows in the North of Iraq both Turkey and Iran would face major headaches. One or both may become embroiled in an unwinnable war.

A de facto Kurdistan could become to Turkey what Afghanistan was to the Soviet Union.

And what would be the fate of Hezbollah if it lost its supply lines from Iran through Syria? Would that tilt the balance of power in Lebanon?

For what it's worth I think Lebanon will escape a collapse into total civil war. I don't think anyone wants a repeat of 1975-90. But there could be some bloodshed along the way.

Interesting times.

…And so far the unasked question: where is Israel in all of this? Not “sitting it out meekly” in deck chairs on the Golan Heights I bet! Ho, Ho...

LOL diver dan

I was wondering when someone would bring up Israel. I thought it might be you.

Well here's my tuppeny ha'porth.

On the whole, I think the Israelis would have been happy for Assad to continue, not because he was their friend, but because any replacement could easily be worse. They knew his regime was inherently unstable. They knew it could probably not survive the stress of a war with Israel. So Assad would always be cautious - all bluster with little danger of action.

To put it another way, I think the Israelis and the Assads had developed a modus vivendi.

Now that the rebellion has started the best end game for Israel would probably be the breakup of Syria along the lines I've described. The mutual fear of the bits of Syria for each other would probably overwhelm their hatred of Jews.

It would not surprise me if it turned out the Israelis were providing some assistance to the Kurds. An emergent Kurdistan would provide a major headache for two foes, Iran and the newly Islamist Turkey. On the other hand a beleaguered Kurdistan is likely to pose little danger for Israel.

Another possible outcome could be the emergence of a Saudi dominated Salafist Syria. This would not necessarily be so bad for Israel as it would for Iran. To some extent what we are seeing now in Syria is a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

In general it is always better if your enemies to fight each other. It means they have fewer resources to fight you. And under some circumstances it may be a shrewd move to help the process along.

So, in answer to your question diver dan, I strongly doubt that the Israelis ignited the current conflict in Syria. But now that it's underway I am sure they will capitalise on any opportunities that present themselves. That's what any state surrounded by enemies would do

Syria is full of Western Mercenaries stirring up trouble.They are attacking Syria because it is an ally of Iran.

We could write the same article about the USA which is broke and war mongerering its way around the planet.

When I'd had time to absorb 9 / 11 attack I concluded that the occupants of the World Trade Center were caught in the crossfire of a civil war that was raging across the Islamic world.

Here are some examples:

The Egyptian-American journalist, Mona Eltahawy, squares off against Israel supporter Alan Dershowitz, February 2011.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPjSPBFAB2U

The same Mona Eltahawy on The Guardian website, October 2012:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/video/2012/oct/29/mona-eltahawy-egyptian-sexual-harassed-video

Even if you click on no other links in this post, watch the two videos I've linked above. They' each about 5 minutes.

Whatever you may think of Dershowitz he obviously had a better grasp of the outcomes for Egypt.

From "The Scotsman" newspaper today:
Thousands protest over ‘Islamisation’ of Turkey

http://www.scotsman.com/news/international/thousands-protest-over-islamisation-of-turkey-1-2604592

And here is the much-arrested Nobel-prize winning Turkish author, Orhan Pamuk, also in the Guardian yesterday:

Europe is turning away from Turkey – and the rest of the world

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/26/europe-turning-away-turkey-world

The title is misleading. Pamuk's problem are not Europe but increasing Islamisation in his own country.

His concluding paragraph is:

>>It is clear that this fear is leading Europe to put up walls at its borders, and to gradually turn away from the world. As the slogan of liberté, égalité, fraternité is slowly forgotten, Europe will sadly turn into an increasingly conservative place dominated by religious and ethnic identities.>>

However much the same could be said for Turkey. Istanbul, once a vibrant multicultural city with a large Jewish population is now almost 100% Muslim.

Then we have the ongoing Sunni persecution of Shia, Christians and Ahamdiyya.

See:

Intolerant Indonesia
Feb 13, 2011 10:00 AM EST
In Java, Muslim hardliners target 'apostates.'

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/02/13/intolerant-indonesia.html

Most of the post-invasion carnage in Iraq was due to sectarian conflicts between Sunni and various Shia factions.

And everywhere the Sufis are persecuted:

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2009/01/25/mystical_power/?page=full

Especially latterly in post-revolution Libya

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/25/sufi-muslim-shrine-libya_n_1830495.html

And, as ever, the one common factor is hatred of Jews.

http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/3614.htm

http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/al-ahram-the-jews-caught-a-fat-fish-with-morsis-hate-video/2012/10/25/

And of course there is the case of Malala Yousafzai:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-20125347

With that many pathologies rife in the Muslim world imagining an American or Jewish plot behind every outbreak of violence seems a bit silly.

Well Stevenlmeyer have a look at this site http://www.ae911truth.org/ There are now over 1700 Architects and Engineers + ( 15000 other supporters) willing to lay their reputation on the line saying that not only the towers were a controlled demolition but so was building 7.You see Steven it all can be proven in a few short sentences.It is impossible for concrete reinforced steel buildings or plain brick for that matter to come down at near free fall speeds unless some sort of explosive is involved.Then there is thousands of pieces of evidence that absolutely demolish the official conspiracy theory.

There is evidence according to Prof Chris Busby that the USA has not only been using Depleted Uranium in Iraq but some form of new mini-nuke.The birth deformities in Falluja are off the scale.3 children per day are born with serious birth defects.http://www.globalresearch.ca/ So don't lecture us on the tribal infighting.One million Iraqis are dead because Western forces invaded Iraq for their oil.

Arjay,

Please provide link for the "mini nuke" claim. I searched the site you linked to with no success.

More for my scientific curiosity rather than belief in childish conspiracy theories. Will always keep an open mind though.

Thanks for your comments. I'm not going to be drawn in to 9/11 conspiracy theories, but on the original subject, when I was in Israel I spoke to a couple of officials who confirmed that the Syrian conflict was definitely one that Israel would sit out, on the grounds that favouring one side would bring the rest of the Arab world down on the other. I did write in On Line Opinion a few months ago that Assad's actions against his own people would mean an end to any hope of Syria getting back the Golan while his regime or anything like his regime was in power. On another matter I did write (not in OLO) of a former Syrian commander, Abdulateef al-Mulhim, writing in a Saudi newspaper (of all places) that further conflict with Israel was pointless and the money would be better spent on education, healthcare and the improvement of human rights in the Arab world.

Graham Cooke wrote

>>I'm not going to be drawn in to 9/11 conspiracy theories>>

Very wise. I never argue with "truthers" or "birthers."

>>On another matter I did write (not in OLO) of a former Syrian commander, Abdulateef al-Mulhim, writing in a Saudi newspaper (of all places) that further conflict with Israel was pointless and the money would be better spent on education, healthcare and the improvement of human rights in the Arab world.>>

I think every sane person in the M-E knows that. But still the rockets fly.

I once wrote a piece - not for OLO - in which I explained what I would be doing if I were in charge of Sinai after the Israelis left. I would have sent trade missions across Europe inviting investment.

"Sinai is open for business" would have been my message to investors.

"That'll stick it to the Israelis" would have been my message to my constituents. "We'll become the Hong Kong of the Mediterranean."

Instead they chose rockets.

C'est la guerre.

Stezza here is a transcript of an interview with Prof Chris Busby and Russian Today.http://nsnbc.wordpress.com/2011/10/28/us-uranium-to-blame-for-babies-in-fallujah/ Busby says that they found evidence of slightly enriched uranium.He goes on to say that this a suggestion of an entirely new weapon,perhaps a neutron bomb.

He and his team have done the scientific investigation but no one wants to listen.

Stezza here is another quote from Busby supporting the supposition that the US has developed and using a new nuclear weapon which is against all international law.

They took hair samples from women in Fallujah and since hair grows slowly it gave them a long history that traced this enriched uranium back to the time of the US attacks.

Busby," We believe the results show the existance of a new secret Uranium weapon.We have found some US patents for thermobaric and directed charge warheads which employ Uranium Powder to increase their effect.It seems that Uranium weapons have moved from simple anti-tank penetrators used in the First Gulf War,which were basically lumps of metal.Since 2003,it seems the Military has been using something else entirely.Something quite scary."

They also have found evidence of Uranium Weapons in Lebanon and the Baltic States.

ARJAY- it was the force of the upper stories of the Twin Towers collapsing onto the ones below that made those buildings fall in a straight line to the ground.

If there had been any explosives set inside the building of enough magnitude to bring those buildings down, then the walls and windows would have blown out from the inside and we would have seen them exploding outwards, looking from the outside, but the buildings didn’t do this, they fell straight down. Indicating that they collapsed from the weight coming down from above.

Seeing is believing. Experts(like the ones you quote) have been proven wrong many times.
I believe what I saw. Those buildings falling in a vertical line to the ground.

LOL CHERFUL

It turns out there are "experts" to cater for every need.

Want to believe in 9 / 11 conspiracies - we have "experts" to bolster your belief.

Find evolution conflicts with your religion - we can find "experts" to comfort you.

Want to believe that the whole of climatology is a beat up - "experts" available, some with Ph.Ds.

"Scientific miracles" in the koran float your boat - "experts" on tap.

I can find UFO experts, experts who believe the moon is an alien space station, even a few experts who still believe smoking won't harm you.

You name it and we can find the "experts."

I'm thinking of starting a new business. You name your wacky belief and I'll find you an "expert" with a plausible story for whatever taurine fertiliser you want to believe.

CHERFUL

As I said, there's an "expert" for every occasion.

Want to know how to attract Leprechauns?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxyofYuts04

Well, it's more fun than the 9 / 11 conspiracy fertiliser.

CHerful Re 911,you obiviously have not looked closely at the evidence.I've met the founder of http://www.ae911truth.org/ Richard Gage and also Prof Sten Jones ,Prof Neils Harrit and our Dr Frank Legge.Their team of 10 International scientists have found irrutable evidence of Nano Thermite throughout the dust and debris of 911.Their peered reviewed paper has not been disputed.

Nano Thermite in 2001 was only known to a few military on this planet.Very little was known about it. A rag tag bag of a few terrorists who could barely fly a Cessnor would not get their hands on this material.

Here http://patriotsquestion911.com/ you will see 1000's of professional people asking the hard questions.Vladamir Putin there saying he warned the USA that these attacks were impending.

BTW Woody Harrelson and Martin Sheen are starring in a New Film soon to be released called "September Morn" which will address most of your ignorance.

Arjay- According to your linked article this is what these two particular experts based their opinions on.

Dan Barnham:- <Dan “knew” at the outset that something was fishy about 9/11, because both of the buildings Collapsed suddenly and in the same manner.>

Dan McCoy:- <Most of his experience from 1965 to 1985 was in the design of steel-framed skyscrapers. The first of these was the 34-story headquarters for Pacific Gas and Electric in San Francisco, which was designed to resist the impact of an airplane and built at the same time as the WTC towers in New York.

RE: the first experts reason for non belief-- < both buildings collapsing suddenly and in the same manner.>

Picture two airplanes flying at 300km or more an hour going straight through the outside walls of the upper floors, as they did so, they destroyed most of the supporting structures in the outside walls Of both buildings at the same time. Not enough supports for the weight above and it was only a matter of time before these two buildings gave way and collapsed the way they did.
This expert is wrong, because he based his opinion on the wrong belief that it was impossible for two buildings to collapse in the same way in such a short time of each other.
There is no known basis for his belief because two planes have never been flown into two buildings like this in history so his opinion that it is not possible has no evidence to back it up.

2nd expert—bases his belief on the assumed( but never tested in real life) that the steel supports On the twin towers would withstand being hit by an airplane. When tested with the real thing they didn’t stand –end of story.
Kind of like saying the Titanic was unsinkable until 6 of her engine rooms were damaged at the same time.

The thing lacking in a lot of experts is common sense, they want to complicate something that is simple and staring them straight in the face, much like conspiracy theorists.

Stevenlmeyer—
You are most correct in your assessment. It is truly astounding, what so called rational human beings will believe.

It brings to mind the recent incident where a fellow declared himself to be Jesus and before long he had a group of followers. One of his followers (a woman), who was interviewed by a journalist, was university educated, a lawyer, if I remember correctly. I just shook my head in amazement, that someone with such an education could believe that this man was actually Jesus, alive here on Earth in the present day.

It will be hard to find a rational solution to finding peace on earth when millions and millions of mankind is so ready to believe what some silly charismatic fool tells them.

You could certainly sell some people the Sydney Harbour Bridge as a garden ornament for their fish pond. Well, at least you could sell it as a sacred site and a wailing wall, that wouldn't be to difficult.

On the topic of Syria. You could correctly state that the illusion
and delusion of the different religious factions that have divided
Syria into two separate tribes should take much of the responsibility
for the present conflicts.

Illusion and delusion, responsible for the lack of peace on earth.

All religions are responsible for dividing countries, the Christian religion has certainly played it's part over the centuries.

CHERFUL, although Syria doesn't rate a mention I thought you might like to compare 'Why Did the World Trade Center Collapse? Science, Engineering, and Speculation' by Thomas W. Eagar and Christopher Musso published in JOM the Journal of the Minerals, Metals and Materials Society, which I admit met my expectation of rational.
http://www.tms.org/pubs/journals/JOM/0112/Eagar/Eagar-0112.html
with
"Active Thermitic Material Discovered in Dust from the 9/11 World Trade Center Catastrophe" by Harrit et. al.
http://www.benthamscience.com/open/tocpj/articles/V002/7TOCPJ.pdf
The second is a bit of a slog to read closely - but it does include 'Of course, we do not assume that the destruction of the WTC skyscrapers occurred conventionally.' As for common sense it doesn't seem to accept the logic of finding traces of aluminium, iron, etc in micronised dust from buildings made of iron and aluminium nor answers the question of how any implied 'nano-thermite' constituents survived being ignited?

To your comment on illusion and delusion, could be added confusion.

CHERFUL ,This is your nervana site http:///debunking911.com/ See their homepage picture of the South Tower collapsing.See the top third of this building pitching at 22 degrees.According to NIST the National Institute for Standards and Technology,this top third above the plane impact collapsed the lower two thirds.

How did this top third falling over,impact enough energy to collapse the lower two thirds? If you view video footage of the South Tower,it falls over at 22 deg and then vaporises into dust.How does concrete dust, crush thousands of tons of reinforced concrete and make it happen as fast as you falling off that same building? Totally impossible!

Never before in history or since,have concrete reinforced steel building buildings collapsed due to fire.

Arjay, to simplify the anaology,

Varicose veins collapse the same way. One valve goes and increases the weight on the valve below, then it goes and the valve below it now has twice the amount of blood weight it was meant to bear. Then that valve collapses and triple the weight of blood goes on the valve below etc. etc.
The buildings didn’t collapse by fire they collapsed because of those planes destroying the supports for the upper floors.

As for all this chemical component mumbo jumbo, I must admit I do not feel like reading it but
I may make a bit of an effort to do so. It wouldn’t matter what experts say about this or that
Nano what’s its name? How would I know if they are correct or not because I do not know much
About the field they are talking about. That means they can say anything and I have no way of
Knowing if what they say can be proved wrong. Therefore I would be wary of taking their words at face value as like most humans they see things clouded by what they want to believe. I would need the opinions of many experts in this field to sort the grain from the chaff.

Also it wouldn’t matter if your vein valve collapsed at a 22% angle it would still pour down 0nto the next level. If there were set explosions why didn’t we see windows exploding violently outwards.

WmTrevor- illusion,delusion and confusion could cause a contusion.

CHERFUL your veins are not made of concrete or steel.They are flexible living organisms.You are comparing living with non living.

Anyway see 'September Morn' and view it with an open mind.