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The Forum > Article Comments > Observations on events in Egypt > Comments

Observations on events in Egypt : Comments

By Joseph Camilleri, published 21/2/2011

The Egyptian revolution upends Western notions of what is possible in the Middle East.

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I’ll venture a proposition of my own.

A decade hence the bulk of the Egyptian people will be even poorer and more desperate than they are now.
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Monday, 21 February 2011 9:11:34 AM
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There is immense power in saying 'no'. 'We will accept this no longer.' Repressive governments depend on implicit consent of most of the population. The police simply cannot cope with a body of citizens who will no longer accept the government.

stevenlmeyer's prediction may be correct. However, it may not. I think his prediction would have had a better probability if Mubarak had stayed in power.
Posted by david f, Monday, 21 February 2011 9:36:59 AM
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Stevenmyer is right the Egyptians have a much bigger problem than government.
Read this;

http://www.postcarbon.org/blog-post/250866-egypt-s-warning-are-you-listening
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 21 February 2011 10:05:03 AM
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Joseph Camillieri

“we can fairly say that never before has a movement of this kind made an effective use of the new Information technologies to foster the politics of empowerment and participation”

What about the degree of empowerment and participation in the governance of our country?

What additional power we have that will prevent us from falling into the trouble of countries like ones in the Middle East and Africa?

We certainly cannot have the luxury of appointing an auditor to tell us how our taxes and rates are spent by the administrators we elect.
Posted by skeptic, Monday, 21 February 2011 10:32:54 AM
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Joe, one further proposition worthy of attention concerns the program of economic reform on which the Mubarak government embarked in 2004. This involved a reduction in the tariff burden from nearly 15 per cent to 5 per cent; trade liberalisation; reduction of the company tax rate from 40 per cent to a 20 per cent flat rate; and income tax at a maximum rate of 20 per cent. The privatisation program also was started again. As a result, Egypt increased its GDP growth from 3 per cent per year in 2000 to around 7 per cent.

It could be argued that, in initiating these reforms, the Mubarak government effectively signed its own death warrant. Corruption and repression meant that ordinary Egyptians shared too few of the economic benefits while they watched their rulers becoming ever richer. Hence, the revolution.

It remains to be seen whether the army, possibly the most professional in the Middle East with the exception of the Israeli army, will both continue the economic reforms and ensure the benefits flow more broadly throughout the community. If not, as you say, a Pyrrhic victory indeed.

Bill G
Posted by Senior Victorian, Monday, 21 February 2011 11:14:02 AM
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Bazz

Interesting link. Thinks.

I happened to hear this segment on the BBC World Service over the weekend:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/p00dpqbd/Business_Weekly_Egyptian_Economics

The problems Egypt faces are not going to be solved by wannabe bureaucrats waiting for the government will give them a job.

Bill G

You are quite right. The Egyptian economy has actually been expanding in recent years but it has not benefited most Egyptians much.

However I do not think the Mubarak Government had much choice. It was either liberalise or see the Egyptian economy implode - which is probably going to happen anyway.

While Mubarak is gone I do not see the current ruling elites - which include senior military officials - give up power any time soon. Most likely they will co-opt the Muslim Brotherhood or elements within the Brotherhood.
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Monday, 21 February 2011 11:40:18 AM
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