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Observations on events in Egypt : Comments
By Joseph Camilleri, published 21/2/2011The Egyptian revolution upends Western notions of what is possible in the Middle East.
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Posted by Fellow_Human, Tuesday, 22 February 2011 7:24:40 PM
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Fellow Human;
The basic problem is that there is insufficient arable land for the increased population now that they have lost their oil income as peak Egyption oil occurred in 1996 and they now import oil. The income for food subsidy is not there to pay for the now increased price of food. These are fundamentals that no politics can overcome. I gather that tourism is now the largest income source. Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 22 February 2011 9:38:18 PM
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I have to agree with Bazz. As Auguste Comte said, demography is destiny.
Total fertility rate in Egypt is down from its recent highs but with an average of 3.0 children per woman is still well above replacement levels. The latest UN population projections for Egypt forecast a population of around 125 million by 2050, an increase of 45 million above the current level. This is an enormous increase for a country that is already unable to feed itself. I don't see the price of food going anywhere but up. A rich country such as Singapore or an oil producer such as Saudi Arabia should be able to pay for food imports. But poor Egypt? I just don't see it. All I see is famine. And it gets worse if countries upstream from Egypt decide to build dams on the tributaries to the Nile and use some of the water themselves. There are indications this could happen. See: http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/20110207/gift-nile.htm Posted by stevenlmeyer, Wednesday, 23 February 2011 12:58:21 PM
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That is a new era business formula - the state takes the spendings and the private firms take the gain. Nice hah?
Posted by Tatiana, Wednesday, 2 March 2011 1:26:41 PM
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I think your last comment is correct. The wealth distribution, unemployment and corruption were cumulative problems over decades. The newly appointed minister of finance is one of the best people in this field but he got a lot to work on.
Here is a link if a Bloomberg interview since its of interest to you
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xh1eku_radwan-says-egyptys-budget-gap-to-widen-after-mubarak_news
Only time will tell,