Steven, yes having such a large youth population bears ill tidings for
their future.
I guess, malnutrition will probably be the best family planning.

A number of people have been comparing Egypt to Turkey.

I think this piece in Newsweek demonstrates that's wishful thinking.

http://www.newsweek.com/2011/02/20/egypt-isn-t-turkey.html

Truth is, when it comes to Egypt I think it's a case of FUBAR.

I was in Egypt since the revolution started and until now with me extended family.
From what I have seen here on ground, most of the author's comments are correct. The revolution is focussed on social justice, wealth distribution and a modern democratic civil state. Most youth interviewed on TV are well read, good thinkers and have amazing sense of nationalism.

The military council confirmed that they will hand over power before October and Egyptians have no reason not to trust their military.

The concern is the same with most revolutions: hijack attempts.

Well F_H

Maybe you're right to be optimistic. Maybe not. Only time will tell.

I knew a lot Iranians in South Africa back in the 1970s. They wanted out from under the Shah. They did not want the mullahs. But that's what they got.

Who knows what the Egyptians will get? I have less faith in the military than you. My guess is that the present elite - which includes many senior military officers - will co-opt elements within the Muslim Brotherhood and remain in power.

However I remain confident of my prediction. Whatever happens in the next few weeks and months, a decade hence the bulk of Egyptians will be poorer and more desperate than they are now.

Hi Steven,

Every country is different.
The Egyptian revolution was unique in a sense that all people from all walks of life, ethnicities, education and income went to the streets (8 to 10 Million). It was not a revolution of the poor like other examples you refer to. There is also the time and internet factor which educated and aligned people a lot on what a modern state is and should.

For decades, the Muslim brotherhood is the scarecrow used on western nations to justify defending the status quo. I think the US administration recently discovered that along with the EU.
Also, an average Egyptian will tell you that the MB movement only became powerful under the existing regime. They gained some power by investing in schools and hospitals as a substitute to ailing government services due to corruption and dysfunctional management.
My prediction is that the MB movement is likely to decline with adequate public services in Egypt over the next few years.

Lets see,

F_H wrote:

>>For decades, the Muslim brotherhood is the scarecrow used on western nations to justify defending the status quo>>

Maybe. But, truth to tell, I cannot understand why anyone outside Egypt would care whether the Muslim Brotherhood or the Australian Sex Party ruled in Cairo. We do business with Saudi Arabia whose government is probably on a par with any hypothetical M-B government. We did not intervene in Taliban ruled Afghanistan until they allowed their territory to be used to launch an attack on the US. Is the Taliban any better than the MB?

Most people in Australia opposed the invasion of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq even though Saddam was about as horrible a dictator as could be imagined – though it must be said that Gaddafi seems to be trying to outdo him. Would an MB government be worse that Saddam or Gadaffi?

In the end what business is it of ours?

>>My prediction is that the MB movement is likely to decline with adequate public services in Egypt over the next few years.>>

If I believed that public services in Egypt would improve I would agree with you. But since I don’t actually care whether the MB rules in Egypt this is of no concern to me.

However, for reasons that have been discussed on this thread I think that Egypt has passed the point of no return. I do not think they will be able to feed themselves, provide jobs for their youth bulge or rescue themselves from growing poverty. My forecast is that while a small elite will continue to get richer the bulk of the population will go on getting poorer, hungrier and more desperate.

Well, we’ve placed our bets. Now we need to wait and see what happens.

But I want to repeat that for me the issue is not who rules in Cairo. It’s whether whoever does rule can pull Egypt back from the brink of starvation. I don’t think anyone can.