I’ll venture a proposition of my own.

A decade hence the bulk of the Egyptian people will be even poorer and more desperate than they are now.

There is immense power in saying 'no'. 'We will accept this no longer.' Repressive governments depend on implicit consent of most of the population. The police simply cannot cope with a body of citizens who will no longer accept the government.

stevenlmeyer's prediction may be correct. However, it may not. I think his prediction would have had a better probability if Mubarak had stayed in power.

Stevenmyer is right the Egyptians have a much bigger problem than government.
Read this;

http://www.postcarbon.org/blog-post/250866-egypt-s-warning-are-you-listening

Joseph Camillieri

“we can fairly say that never before has a movement of this kind made an effective use of the new Information technologies to foster the politics of empowerment and participation”

What about the degree of empowerment and participation in the governance of our country?

What additional power we have that will prevent us from falling into the trouble of countries like ones in the Middle East and Africa?

We certainly cannot have the luxury of appointing an auditor to tell us how our taxes and rates are spent by the administrators we elect.

Joe, one further proposition worthy of attention concerns the program of economic reform on which the Mubarak government embarked in 2004. This involved a reduction in the tariff burden from nearly 15 per cent to 5 per cent; trade liberalisation; reduction of the company tax rate from 40 per cent to a 20 per cent flat rate; and income tax at a maximum rate of 20 per cent. The privatisation program also was started again. As a result, Egypt increased its GDP growth from 3 per cent per year in 2000 to around 7 per cent.

It could be argued that, in initiating these reforms, the Mubarak government effectively signed its own death warrant. Corruption and repression meant that ordinary Egyptians shared too few of the economic benefits while they watched their rulers becoming ever richer. Hence, the revolution.

It remains to be seen whether the army, possibly the most professional in the Middle East with the exception of the Israeli army, will both continue the economic reforms and ensure the benefits flow more broadly throughout the community. If not, as you say, a Pyrrhic victory indeed.

Bill G

Bazz

Interesting link. Thinks.

I happened to hear this segment on the BBC World Service over the weekend:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/p00dpqbd/Business_Weekly_Egyptian_Economics

The problems Egypt faces are not going to be solved by wannabe bureaucrats waiting for the government will give them a job.

Bill G

You are quite right. The Egyptian economy has actually been expanding in recent years but it has not benefited most Egyptians much.

However I do not think the Mubarak Government had much choice. It was either liberalise or see the Egyptian economy implode - which is probably going to happen anyway.

While Mubarak is gone I do not see the current ruling elites - which include senior military officials - give up power any time soon. Most likely they will co-opt the Muslim Brotherhood or elements within the Brotherhood.

Steven, yes having such a large youth population bears ill tidings for
their future.
I guess, malnutrition will probably be the best family planning.

A number of people have been comparing Egypt to Turkey.

I think this piece in Newsweek demonstrates that's wishful thinking.

http://www.newsweek.com/2011/02/20/egypt-isn-t-turkey.html

Truth is, when it comes to Egypt I think it's a case of FUBAR.

I was in Egypt since the revolution started and until now with me extended family.
From what I have seen here on ground, most of the author's comments are correct. The revolution is focussed on social justice, wealth distribution and a modern democratic civil state. Most youth interviewed on TV are well read, good thinkers and have amazing sense of nationalism.

The military council confirmed that they will hand over power before October and Egyptians have no reason not to trust their military.

The concern is the same with most revolutions: hijack attempts.

Well F_H

Maybe you're right to be optimistic. Maybe not. Only time will tell.

I knew a lot Iranians in South Africa back in the 1970s. They wanted out from under the Shah. They did not want the mullahs. But that's what they got.

Who knows what the Egyptians will get? I have less faith in the military than you. My guess is that the present elite - which includes many senior military officers - will co-opt elements within the Muslim Brotherhood and remain in power.

However I remain confident of my prediction. Whatever happens in the next few weeks and months, a decade hence the bulk of Egyptians will be poorer and more desperate than they are now.

Hi Steven,

Every country is different.
The Egyptian revolution was unique in a sense that all people from all walks of life, ethnicities, education and income went to the streets (8 to 10 Million). It was not a revolution of the poor like other examples you refer to. There is also the time and internet factor which educated and aligned people a lot on what a modern state is and should.

For decades, the Muslim brotherhood is the scarecrow used on western nations to justify defending the status quo. I think the US administration recently discovered that along with the EU.
Also, an average Egyptian will tell you that the MB movement only became powerful under the existing regime. They gained some power by investing in schools and hospitals as a substitute to ailing government services due to corruption and dysfunctional management.
My prediction is that the MB movement is likely to decline with adequate public services in Egypt over the next few years.

Lets see,

F_H wrote:

>>For decades, the Muslim brotherhood is the scarecrow used on western nations to justify defending the status quo>>

Maybe. But, truth to tell, I cannot understand why anyone outside Egypt would care whether the Muslim Brotherhood or the Australian Sex Party ruled in Cairo. We do business with Saudi Arabia whose government is probably on a par with any hypothetical M-B government. We did not intervene in Taliban ruled Afghanistan until they allowed their territory to be used to launch an attack on the US. Is the Taliban any better than the MB?

Most people in Australia opposed the invasion of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq even though Saddam was about as horrible a dictator as could be imagined – though it must be said that Gaddafi seems to be trying to outdo him. Would an MB government be worse that Saddam or Gadaffi?

In the end what business is it of ours?

>>My prediction is that the MB movement is likely to decline with adequate public services in Egypt over the next few years.>>

If I believed that public services in Egypt would improve I would agree with you. But since I don’t actually care whether the MB rules in Egypt this is of no concern to me.

However, for reasons that have been discussed on this thread I think that Egypt has passed the point of no return. I do not think they will be able to feed themselves, provide jobs for their youth bulge or rescue themselves from growing poverty. My forecast is that while a small elite will continue to get richer the bulk of the population will go on getting poorer, hungrier and more desperate.

Well, we’ve placed our bets. Now we need to wait and see what happens.

But I want to repeat that for me the issue is not who rules in Cairo. It’s whether whoever does rule can pull Egypt back from the brink of starvation. I don’t think anyone can.

Hi Steven,

I think your last comment is correct. The wealth distribution, unemployment and corruption were cumulative problems over decades. The newly appointed minister of finance is one of the best people in this field but he got a lot to work on.

Here is a link if a Bloomberg interview since its of interest to you

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xh1eku_radwan-says-egyptys-budget-gap-to-widen-after-mubarak_news

Only time will tell,

Fellow Human;
The basic problem is that there is insufficient arable
land for the increased population now that they have lost their oil
income as peak Egyption oil occurred in 1996 and they now import oil.
The income for food subsidy is not there to pay for the now increased
price of food.

These are fundamentals that no politics can overcome.
I gather that tourism is now the largest income source.

I have to agree with Bazz. As Auguste Comte said, demography is destiny.

Total fertility rate in Egypt is down from its recent highs but with an average of 3.0 children per woman is still well above replacement levels. The latest UN population projections for Egypt forecast a population of around 125 million by 2050, an increase of 45 million above the current level. This is an enormous increase for a country that is already unable to feed itself.

I don't see the price of food going anywhere but up. A rich country such as Singapore or an oil producer such as Saudi Arabia should be able to pay for food imports.

But poor Egypt? I just don't see it. All I see is famine.

And it gets worse if countries upstream from Egypt decide to build dams on the tributaries to the Nile and use some of the water themselves. There are indications this could happen.

See:
http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/20110207/gift-nile.htm

That is a new era business formula - the state takes the spendings and the private firms take the gain. Nice hah?