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The Forum > General Discussion > The Chalmers Report

The Chalmers Report

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Keeping the economy functioning amid growing global
tensions and rising inflation without blowing the budget
will provide a tough test for the Albanese government.
However the government does have a parliamentary majority
so it won't need to make concessions.

Yet economists see Australia withstanding a housing
downturn and higher interest rates through low exchange rate,
stronger population growth, increased business investment
and continued elevated prices for key commodity exports
such as coal and iron ore.

Of course there could be some policy shifts - but these
don't change the economic picture in the near term -
according to Commonwealth Bank economists.
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 29 July 2022 10:33:09 AM
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There are only two parties capable of forming a government in this country, and they are pretty much the same in most things these days. What One Nation or the Greens do or think is irrelevant, and will remain so. All they do is run interference. Unlike the major parties they can do nothing about wages, power prices, or anything else. They might as well not exist as long as we have compulsory voting and compulsory preferential voting. Australian voters have been deliberately prevented from punishing politicians in the way available to voters in other systems.
Posted by ttbn, Friday, 29 July 2022 12:40:05 PM
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Voters certainly managed to punish quite a few
politicians at the last election. They also managed to
reward many.
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 29 July 2022 1:19:30 PM
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A few months ago a particularly prescient member of our group (modesty forbids) opined that "Whoever wins this election is likely to presented with the worst economic outlook faced by any incoming government since 1975."

Unsurprisingly this wasn't a major issue in the election since the Libs didn't want to talk about their monumental economic failures and the ALP didn't want to answer questions about how they'd handle the problems given that they didn't, and still don't, have any answers.

The real problem is that the actual answers to this problem are things that neither party wants to face let alone do.

Reduce the government deficit? Not a chance. The ALP has come in with a series of costly promises and they have learned from Gillard that failing to honour promises is death. So they'll spend, spend and spend. Not as wantonly as Morrison, mind you, but inappropriately nonetheless.

The ALP's best idea seems to be to find savings by making the functions of government more efficient. This is standard for all governments who really don't have any idea where to make cuts. It almost always ends up being more costly.

Real living standards are going to fall. Unemployment is going to rise. The government debt will continue to rise. Inflation also. And interest rates.

At the moment, the ALP can rightly say it's not their fault, but that won't fly in a year's time when things are, if anything worse.

The US is in recession. Germany's, and therefore Europe's, economy was inevitably going the same way, BEFORE Putin started withholding gas. Their problems are worse than those of the US which is saying something given the US has Biden in charge.

And China? Well from Keating on through we put all our eggs in that basket, and the idiocy of that policy is about to become apparent as Xi's hubris unravels.

We are a great trading nation trying to exist in a world where trade is falling off a cliff. The old curse is "may you live in interesting times". Well they don't get much more 'interesting' than this.
Posted by mhaze, Friday, 29 July 2022 1:21:13 PM
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Foxy wrote (hoped) "The Reserve Bank's May Monthly Statement said:...."

Yes let's all put our faith in the Reserve Bank!

The same RBA that told us not so long ago...""The central scenario remains that the condition for a lift in the cash rate [ie interest rates] will not be met until 2024." That Reserve Bank?

The same RBA that told us not so long ago that "Inflation is expected to pick up a little alongside the gradual decline in the unemployment rate, to be 1.75 per cent by mid 2023." Yes let's put our faith in that RBA.

Australians over the past decade abdicated all reason to 'the experts'. Experts who got the lockdowns so wrong and foreign policy so wrong. The RBA utterly failed the nation as it allowed, even cheered, the government into running up a $1 trillion debt while keeping rates low for way too long.

We won't really recover from the disasters of the last 5 years until these 'experts' are hounded out of power to be replaced with people who have some notion of the real world. Chalmers's inquiry into the RBA is a small, a very small, step in that direction
Posted by mhaze, Friday, 29 July 2022 1:36:25 PM
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Thanks for a bit of seance, rather than rhetoric, mhaze.
Posted by Hasbeen, Friday, 29 July 2022 1:38:59 PM
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