The Forum > General Discussion > The lockdown rethink
The lockdown rethink
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Posted by thinkabit, Monday, 22 March 2021 7:19:38 PM
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SR,
"All it is is a dodgy graph with no reference or links to any data source. That is your evidence and somehow gives you the right to question the figures I presented." When you want to hide from the truth you have all sorts of ploys don't you? Here's some more links which you would have found had you followed the links in my original posts.... http://teamaustralia21.org/data-and-explanation-for-the-sweden-chart-from-panda/ http://sanjeev.sabhlokcity.com/Misc/Sweden%20data-9March2021.xlsx Careful because the last one is a spreadsheet with lots of data and formulae...it will utterly confuse you. SR opined: "As to population increases we are not comparing 2010 to 2020 because your claim was that 2020 was lower than the average of the last 10 years." Its at that point where I realise just how little SR understands this and therefore the impossibility of getting him to follow the logic. You'd hope that, realising how far out of his depth he is, that he'd just accept the calculations being offered, but alas. He seems to not even understand averaging let alone age and gender adjustments. I can't help but notice, SR, that you've utterly ignored all the other data such as that concerning the comparisons of the US states and the comparisons of the European nations. As I said, if he wants to ignore the truth, SR is expert. Posted by mhaze, Tuesday, 23 March 2021 11:29:45 AM
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thinkabit,
You're confusing two issues. It's true that Australia did close off the nation to the world in way that was not done nor available to other nations. Its relatively easy to close off an island but not so nations with land borders. As I said, other islands such as Taiwan were equally successful in locking out the infectious. But how does a nation like say, the US lock out the virus from crossing its borders? International isolation was a luxury available to a lucky few only which is what I said above and said early in 2020 on these pages. But I'm talking about the lockdowns within the nation. Closing schools, businesses, states. Putting people out of work for months on end, destroying livelihoods and the work of a lifetime. Coffee shops euthanized. Entire industries wiped out. These are the things that the data is now showing was ineffective. Flatten the curve for a week or three, but don't close schools for months. Don't force the entire population into social isolation. Isolate those most at risk - the elderly - and let the rest carry on as normal. That we now learn was the correct response. Of course many of us knew that early on, but the data is now proving it. Posted by mhaze, Tuesday, 23 March 2021 11:41:28 AM
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Posted by Kyle, Tuesday, 23 March 2021 2:30:02 PM
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Thanks Kyle.
We’ll all be sure to use the services of OPD solutions should the need arise. Thanks for the ad. Dan Posted by diver dan, Tuesday, 23 March 2021 4:01:31 PM
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Dear mhaze,
You charge: “When you want to hide from the truth you have all sorts of ploys don't you?” Well that is projection of the highest order now isn't it. You claimed you were talking about total figures and it turned out you were doing no such thing. No retraction nor apology just move right on to more rubbish. But it has been a little interesting popping through your links and getting at least a little acquainted with a few of the kind of fringe people you have found refuge with. And mate there are some real crackers in that barrel. Sanjeev Sabhlok does take the cake though. http://sanjeev.sabhlokcity.com/ . “What’s the best way to keep in touch with me and my ‘work’? I announce almost everything I do, or think about, on the internet. That is very convenient. It is like a ripe flower that spreads its seeds in the wind. Who knows where the seeds will land and find fertile soil? The minds of my readers is what I seek – to free them from bondage to false belief, and to force them to think for themselves, often for the first time in their lives.” Anyway for giggles I did look at your linked spread sheet and was surprised to see the data sources listed. And way and behold I found this link: https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/ Look familiar? It is the same one I posted earlier figures from which you claimed were “Standard SR there....completely ignores all the data I mentioned and runs off to find his own inaccurate numbers.” You really are a spud mate, but always good for a chuckle. So what other own goal are you going to kick for my amusement? Posted by SteeleRedux, Tuesday, 23 March 2021 10:33:58 PM
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Just to make it easier for you to understand mhaze:
There is a world of difference between x people having the virus being reduced to 1/2 x people when compared to 1/2 x reduced to 0 even though it is the same absolute number in reduced cases. And that is because zero is a very, very special number. As any school kid could tell you, once you're at zero it is IMPOSSIBLE for the number of active virus cases to increase via local transmission. (Which is different from any other natural number of cases. Zero is a unique number in this sense, mathematicians call it the "nonexistence of nontrivial zero divisors"). The ONLY way the virus can return is if someone were to bring in from overseas.
So, as anyone with even to slightest intelligence can understand, the best strategy to control/prevent the spread of this virus is to is get to ZERO cases and shut the borders and then wait for a vaccine to be developed. Which is more or less what we've done except we didn't shut the borders completely but implemented hotel quarantine. And that is what makes Australia's situation different from the rest of the world!
But here's a thought for you: just imagine if a year ago the whole world did what Australia and New Zealand did. Ie., Shut the borders and locked down till achieving local elimination (which only took 4 weeks for New Zealand and about 6 for most of Australia) and implemented controlled quarantine, contact tracing and wide spread community testing to deal with quarantine failures.
So what would be the result?
Answer: there would be NO virus at all today!! (just an idea for you to ponder the next time you go to write something about the virus).
*just a little note: is "lockdowned" a word? Lockdown has been used as a verb a lot of late so maybe it is?