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The Forum > General Discussion > The lockdown rethink

The lockdown rethink

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Many parts of the world are commemorating the first anniversary of the start of the lockdowns. In those days we were told that they were a temporary measure designed to ‘flatten the curve’ ie to distribute the inevitable serious cases over a longer period to protect the health system.

Thereafter that turned into a desire to somehow try to defeat the virus by hiding from it. This didn’t just happen in Australia but in large parts of the world. League tables were set up with the only criteria deciding if governments were successful or not being the number of deaths their allocated to the virus. In Australia that meant NSW was originally determined to have failed when it had more allocated deaths than other states and that thinking continued until Victoria completely failed whereupon our league tables ceased to be published.

Given that the world is now starting to come out from the lockdown mania and is also in a position to gather data on the actual success of the unprecedented health measure, more and more people are coming to realise that the lockdowns were a disaster.

One of the main issues has been that comparison across time and place was difficult due to differing counting methods. But now we are able to determine the total number of deaths in the period for each country and compare that to prior periods. Doing that shows, for example, that in Sweden, which effectively eschewed the lockdown mania, the numbers of total deaths in 2020 was lower than the average for the previous ten years.

Equally, in the USA, state comparisons are showing that the states with the greatest increase in death were those that locked-down the hardest while those who had much less stringent or extended lockdowns did comparatively better, though only slightly so. The takeaway being that the lockdowns had little effect on the outcomes.
The ramifications of the “worst public health mistake in last 100 years” will be with us for decades. The health and mental effects will be around for years to come. Hopefully we’ve learned our lesson
Posted by mhaze, Monday, 22 March 2021 10:50:00 AM
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I for one am grateful for what our government has
done and the way it has handled the response to
the virus. Our death tolls have been very small
in comparison to some countries. Listening to
the advice of medical experts appears to have
worked. We can't really complain about lockdowns.
They were necessary, and now are being slowly lifted
as appropriate. Well done Australia!
Posted by Foxy, Monday, 22 March 2021 11:32:29 AM
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Some of the data referred to above:
The analysis on the US states can be found here….
http://lockdownsceptics.org/2021/02/03/#lockdown-states-suffer-more-covid-deaths-on-average
Follow the links to verify the actual data.
Similar observations can be found in Europe where those nations with the heaviest lockdowns fared no better than those states with relatively less stringent measures.

Comparing nations by using their total mortality figures shows also that the level of lockdown didn’t make much difference….
http://lockdownsceptics.org/2021/03/14/when-will-government-reject-the-failed-lockdown-models/

The data on Sweden can be found here: http://www.pandata.org/lockdowns-dont-save-lives-sweden/

Not only was the death rate in Sweden lower than the 10 year average but the increase from the previous year was lower in Sweden than most other European countries.
Posted by mhaze, Monday, 22 March 2021 11:46:23 AM
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Dear mhaze,

You write: "One of the main issues has been that comparison across time and place was difficult due to differing counting methods. But now we are able to determine the total number of deaths in the period for each country and compare that to prior periods. Doing that shows, for example, that in Sweden, which effectively eschewed the lockdown mania, the numbers of total deaths in 2020 was lower than the average for the previous ten years."

Oh what an utter lie. This is the very reason you nearly always fail to provide any links.

Well here is one for you old boy.

Sweden total deaths.

2011 89,938

2012 91,938

2013 90,402

2014 88,976

2015 90,907

2016 90,982

2017 91,972

2018 92,185

2019 88,766

2020 97,941

http://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

So last year was the highest despite Covid measures having an impact on flu deaths even in Sweden.

I know how much figures throw you but even you can see this was well above the average of the last 10 years.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Monday, 22 March 2021 12:04:17 PM
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And here are the relative excessive death graphs for each of the Scandinavian countries.

http://imgur.com/a/Wnl4ygr

Guess which one had the least lockdowns.

Retrieved from here: http://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

Mate you really do need to spend less time of fringe websites. They are making you look like even more of a fool.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Monday, 22 March 2021 12:13:58 PM
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With the draconian lock downs of healthy people we now have a precedent for the future. It is much easier to create conventions than it is to break them. The government has exaggerated fears because it knows that frightened people will submit.

However, they might be surprised. Lord Sumption, retired UK Supreme Court judge, believes that resistance to draconian laws will not be loud and public: it will be quiet and ignoring of the laws.

Changes are not made by street violence and demonstrations; they are made by millions of people quietly making their own choices.

Governments should have sought second opinions rather than going with first advisers. There is no evidence that locking down healthy people to protect the old and weak had any effect whatsoever. As the collective voice of the herd becomes dominant, the ability of people to think atrophies.
Posted by ttbn, Monday, 22 March 2021 12:36:37 PM
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