We know some societies have fared rather well in the crisis without the need to effectively mothball their economy. Places like South Korea, Taiwan, even Portugal - I know it hasn't done well as compared to us in terms of death rates but very well as compared to it neighbours.

SKorea and Taiwan are interesting in that they know China better than most and were therefore not sucked in by the original lies perpetrated by the China Communist Party. Taiwan had the added advantage of not being a member of WHO and therefore avoiding all the utter misinformation put out but that walking advertisement for the closure of all UN agencies.

So closing down society wasn't necessarily required. But we had untested models telling medical bureaucrats and thereafter politicians that the sky was about to fall. That those models were working on faulty early data is now pretty clear. Even the very best of forecasting models are subject to GIGO - garbage in leads to garbage out.

It seems obvious that there is an element in the US decision making structure who want to bring the economy out of mothballs earlier rather than later. But there seems to be no such constituency here. Closing the economy for six months will do unimaginable damage for at least a generation.

Each month 100 Australians die in road accidents. To date the Wuhan Virus has killed about 15 per month. Maybe thousands would have died had we not taken these panic measures. But the growing evidences suggest not.

Is the destruction of the economy worth it?

mhaze

I am not sure if we will ever know how effective our actions were and were not. You can be sure it will be politicised for the next 20 years. I tend to l lean towards your view that we have spent far to much appeasement money which in the end will lead to far more pain than the virus itself. We have also surrended far to many freedoms for fear. It is a difficult one as Australians by and large like to do the right thening but as showm by the selfish brainwashed adults and kids gluing themselves to the road recently logic goes out the window. The police have gone from watching these tantrum throwers and seeming powerless to fining people for eating kebab. Go figure!

Mr O,

"I think what you are trying to tell me is that you don't want me in The Forum's Old Farts Club."

No, I'm telling you that your comments are of no value, add nothing to this or any other thread and consist of inanities shouted from the back of the grandstand. And we'd all be better off without it.

Paul,

"This is a pandemic,....".

Why is this a pandemic and influenza isn't? Influenza, year in and year out, kills far more than this virus so far even allowing for the Chinese understatement of facts by at least an order of magnitude.

"has the potential to kill millions throughout the world. "

Well that's the point. It doesn't. Faulty early information suggested it might, but that's no longer the case.

Paul, can you provide a link for these Kansas preachers you're on about. I can't find nothing about it on the WWW but would like to follow it to see the results of these services, if indeed they are taking place.

SR,

Still at it I see.
I wasn't hiding the week 12 data. I posted it and then it was changed. I didn't cherry-pick but merely pointed out to thinkabit that the site actually recognised that the data showed little in the way of excess deaths, a fact he couldn't see.

But standard SR here. Pick up a minor peripheral issue, exaggerate it beyond all recognition, misinterpret some point or other, make inane claims about said misinterpretation and then make moronic pronouncements.

Normally this would result in a three day dual as you are slowly bought to a realisation that you were off coarse, but this time....not playing.

mhaze: "I didn't cherry-pick but merely pointed out to thinkabit that the site actually recognised that the data showed little in the way of excess deaths, a fact he couldn't see."

I was looking at and commenting on the current info as displayed yesterday on the site you linked to. It clearly shows that there is a LARGE uptick in deaths compared to the average for the whole of Europe. It's the forth graph from the top: "Pooled numbers of deaths- all ages". It clearly shows that the current death rate is way over 4 z-scores. Even 4 z-scores is a large uptick.

By the way: in your first post you suggested that the fatality rate could go "perhaps as low as 0.01%". In Italy it is already higher than this. Ie. current deaths in Italy approx. 16000 and total population is approx. 60 million which gives 0.027% . Spain has a comparable rate also.

mhaze, you either have no comprehension of how serious this virus is, or you simply want to pay silly buggers with reality. Yes, influenza is a serious life threatening disease that ravishes the human population on a regular basis, and at its most serious in 1919 the pandemic killed millions world wide, including between 13,000 and 20,000 in Australia with a population at the time of only 5 million people . In no way does the terrible contagion that influenza is negate the potential devastation of another serious disease covid-19. The data is in the facts, and the fact is this virus is impacting the lives of billions throughout the world. Please stay safe in your bubble, I would hate for any harm to befall you because of your ignorance of the facts.

I have my flu shot every year and never get the flu; the simple fact that there is no vaccine for this virus is the problem.
To me, isolation seems a very good measure.

One plus point is that it shews that politicians don't need to go overseas on a regular basis to have a chat to their opposite numbers.