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The Forum > General Discussion > The cost of renewable power

The cost of renewable power

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I believe the cost of renewables is being hidden.
1. I think it is true that a turbine at maximum rated wind generates cheapest electricity.
2. Because wind does not blow at maximum all the time more turbines needed.
3. Because wind at times does not blow at all more locations are needed.
4. Somewhere the wind will be blowing hard enough. More locations needed.
5. A grid capable of switching power from anywhere to anywhere is needed.
6. Maximum size turbine appears to be 10Megawatt. So for each Gigawatt
100 turbines are needed.
7. Australias demand is say 20 Gw, 18.5 GW at this moment.
8. 100 turbines x 20Gw x 12 mult factor = 24,000 turbines.

Batteries connected in strategic locations will help but will never be big enough.
All these factors generate a multiplication factor that tells you how
many turbines needed to supply maximum demand.
This factor appears to increase in inverse proportion to the size of
the country.
For the United States I have seen 12 suggested for the multiplication.

Now, I am not in the industry but if I have some faulty logic here I
would like to hear it. I did not use solar for this because it has to
work at night in peak time.
I do not think anyone is planning on 24,000 turbines.
So what is the real cost ?
Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 9:32:00 AM
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Dear Shadow Minister,

You write;

“I don't see relevance that fluctuations in the US manufacturing index has on business investment moving to lower cost US from higher cost Aus”

What? Are you serious? This was an opening line in your original post for this thread;

“along with a robust manufacturing sector stoked by President Donald Trump's policies”

Typical from you mate. You get pulled up on something then you are quick to disown it.

Now to the contention it was all down to Labour;

“An Australian-based consortium has won a contract to supply China with liquefied natural gas worth up to $25 billion in what will be the nation's biggest single export deal.”

“The Prime Minister, John Howard, who announced the deal, said the contract to supply China's first liquefied natural gas power station in the rapidly growing Guangdong province would benefit Australia for years.”

http://www.smh.com.au/national/gas-boom-as-china-signs-25bn-deal-20020809-gdfiz2.html

It turns out at the time of negotiations the gas prices were at a historic low and the contract locked these prices in until 2035. Chinese manufacturers are paying a third of what Australian industry is paying for our own bloody gas. Only you could applaud this situation.

Your solution is to start one of the dirtiest short term methods of gas extraction, fracking, to blight our farmlands and our water tables, even though we are the world's largest exporter of natural gas.

Thankfully your party is finally going to act;

“A portion of Australia's gas supplies could be set aside for domestic use as part of a Federal Government push to try to bring down gas prices.

Resources Minister Matt Canavan announced the Commonwealth would formally examine a domestic gas reservation scheme in Western Australia, where he said consumers paid some of the most affordable gas prices in the world.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-06/federal-government-to-consider-domestic-gas-reserve/11385596

According to you this will make them socialists.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 9:53:30 AM
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Added to the monetary costs are the social costs of divisiveness that occurs with all fads that have been thrust upon us since the beginning of time: the Earth is flat; some women are witches; the end is nigh; acid rain; the millennium bug, and so on - none of which were true. And, as it has been in the past, the perpetrators of the current scare campaign about perfectly normal climate change will not be brought to book or made to pay.
Posted by ttbn, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 10:04:21 AM
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The presumption in the preceding post is that 100% reliable supply
is required. I gather that the standard normally set is 99% or thereabouts.
If a lower reliability is accepted then a very large expenditure will
be needed by industry and commercial concerns to provide backup power.
For instance large battery or generator systems will be needed in every
commercial building with lifts as the risk of being caught in a stopped
lift will reduce the rentability of building space.

Factories will need no break generator systems to enable production.
No doubt there are many other customers who will be very inconvenienced
by frequent power interruptions.

When will someone put a dollar figure on the cost of 100% renewables ?
Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 10:19:11 AM
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ttbn, the millennium bug was real. A programmer friend of mine bought
a new car on the strength of it. He worked a lot of overtime on his
firm's customers' computer systems.
I had a couple of my own programs that needed the ability to handle
four character year fields.

It is often used as an example of spurious conspiracy panics.
The only reason it did not happen was because a lot of programmers
fixed the problem before 2000. Some time before 2000 it was under
discussion and new versions of programs used four character fields
Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 10:44:26 AM
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SR,

I wonder if you have any economic qualifications whatsoever?

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-manufacturing-what-it-is-statistics-and-outlook-3305575

The monthly fluctuations in manufacturing output is due to a variety of factors along the entire range of products some seasonal some not. The issue is the underlying factors for manufacturing ie, power costs, labour costs, taxes, legislation, access to markets etc.

That Aus power prices, labour costs, legislative compliance costs, taxes etc have all increased compared to the US and pretty much the rest of the world which is why non mining manufacturing is shrinking year by year in Aus whilst over the last 2yrs it has grown in the US.

As for the gas contract you linked to that was in North West WA which due to distance cannot supply any of the east coast and has no effect on gas prices on the east coast. And Vic Labor has blocked not only fracking, but any new gas supplies.

For god's sake read up on the subject before posting irrelevant factoids. It feels like I am debating a child.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 10:55:12 AM
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