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The Forum > General Discussion > Money where the mouth is

Money where the mouth is

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http://warmwagers.org/index.htm
At the start of year 2006 I offered a wager of US$1,000 to anyone who would bet against the proposition that a new record high global average temperature would be set within four years. I extended the wager to many thousands of people who have stated publicly that they believe Earth is not warming--- yet not even one of them would accept the wager. They refused to take my money.
Every year I extended the wager another year, to give the deniers of climate change a chance to put their money where their publicly-stated beliefs are. Now, after EIGHT YEARS of the wager existing, and after my telling a huge number deniers about the wager, not even one has accepted the wager.
This suggests they do not believe what they have claimed to believe. This suggests that they know Earth is warming, even if they reject all of the evidence that shows humans were and are the cause. What they state in public they do not believe in private.

That wager still exists, and I have added a second wager. The two wagers:
WAGER ONE: I, David Rice (“Desertphile”) will wager US$1,000 on the proposition that by the end of year 2018 there will have been set another record high global average temperature as recorded by NASA GISS’s GLB.Ts+dSST dataset. The current record high is for year 2014, standing at 14.68c
WAGER TWO: I, David Rice (“Desertphile”) will wager US$3,000 on the proposition that the decade of the 2010s will be warmer than the decade of the 2000s. That is, the average of the global temperature yearly average from year 2010 to 2019 will be warmer than the average of the global temperature yearly average from year 2000 to 2009, as recorded by NASA GISS’s GLB.Ts+dSST dataset. The 2000s decade value stands at 14.46c
I have an escrow account with the funds in place; anyone who accepts my wager(s) will need to place their money into the escrow fund. Talk to me: desertphile@warmwagers.org
Posted by Robert LePage, Tuesday, 30 August 2016 4:07:44 PM
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Move on Robert. The world has woken up to the hoax. We don't need your silly little games. There are far more important issues in life.
Posted by runner, Tuesday, 30 August 2016 4:51:07 PM
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Move on, runner. The world has indeed woken up to your hoax, which is why nobody's taken the wager.
Posted by Aidan, Tuesday, 30 August 2016 4:55:13 PM
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wow, easy cash for runner around 30% interest.
Posted by nicknamenick, Tuesday, 30 August 2016 5:07:43 PM
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Robert LePage: The reasons why no one's taken your bet is because you misunderstand what the vast majority of climate change skeptics are skeptical of. Climate change skeptics don't "deny" that climate change is happening, rather they skeptically doubt that mankind is the major cause of climate change or they doubt that mankind caused climate change will have any major detrimental impact on humanity.

Anyone, who denies climate change happens would have to be either very, very ignorant of Earth's climate history or a lunatic.

Personally, my take on climate change is:
1) Is climate change real and happening right now: Yes, absolutely-- it always has happened and will continue to happen as long as Earth has an atmosphere.

2) Does mankind's activities impact on climate: Yes, of course. However, many other things do as well such as: extremely long to long term astronomical causes such as the interplay of gravity between planets/the sun affecting Earth's orbit and its spin, to Earth's own long term inputs such as plate tectonics (eg: the position of the continents and mountain ranges) on the scale of millions to 100s-of-millions years to fleetingly short inputs such as fluctations in solar output on the scale of year-to-decades or volcanic activity on the scale of months-to-years.

3) Is mankind the greatest contributorto the current warming trend: Well, I think it's possible, but I really don't know. We simply haven't enough high quality data over a long enough time nor enough understanding to definitively say. Given a few more decades of data and research we'll probably be able to very confidently say to what degree mankind has and is impacting on the climate.

--continued below.
Posted by thinkabit, Wednesday, 31 August 2016 8:36:41 AM
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--continued from above -

4) Now this is the big one, Is climate change an the biggest challenge we face today: Absolutely, NOT!
The impact of climate change is barely worth mentioning compared to issues that really do/or potentially could have an impact of the health, wealth and wellbeing of us humans. For example, some of issues that really matter are: the state of the world's economy especially the price of energy (this is the biggest one cause this directly affects the price of food in the very short term- the vast majority humanity can live with the world having a few extra hot days- but they can't live more than a month without affordable food), access to cheap/free quality drinking water, global outbreaks of disease affecting humans that are not currently widespead/present but have devastating potential such as Bird Flu, Ebola, etc..., global outbreaks of existing or new diseases affecting food supply (especially cereal crop diseases), currently widespead diseases and illness such as HIV/AIDS, malaria, etc..., the political stability of the world, the rise of super-human AI technology (this is potentially a much larger problem than most realize but is at least a couple of decades away), access to quality education, and the list goes on and on. Compared to these immediate and near-term very real threats the decades-to-eventuate-possible-hypothetical threats associated with climate change are insignificant.
Posted by thinkabit, Wednesday, 31 August 2016 8:37:41 AM
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