Hi Poirot, the old conservative survey 'Newspoll' Labor 51/49 will shock the Nervous Nellies in marginal Liberal seats. I said last week the Turnball Tax policy cost the coalition 5 points, that was obvious, and for what gain, have the State Primers, all except the Wally from WA kick it into the long grass (a Turnball expression). No matter what the outcome Turnball in a "master stroke" has planted the notion into voters minds he wants to introduce double taxation. Labor should exploit the tax issue at every opportunity with the simple message; "Turbull wants to double your tax!" Who is Malcolm's political adviser? Lucy.

On 'Newspoll' 51/49 is not enough lead for Labor, governments nearly always pull back about 3% of votes in the last 2 weeks of an election campaign. Shorten looked a lot more comfortable on the ABC yesterday. fielding questions nicely, I think he feels he has a good chance.

Paul,

"...Who is Malcolm's political adviser? Lucy."

That's not far from the truth...he has a "very small" inner circle which doesn't include the Treasurer - but does include Lucy and Arfur SeeNoDonors.

I note Abbott was on the radio this morning bleating something about his idea on ISIS that we should take a risk and stop the death cult.

Right on cue.

You couldn't make this stuff up!

Hi Poirot, Turnball bought Morrison's support with the Treasures job, that doesn't come with the bonus of joining the inner sanctum. The latest economic policies to be announced tomorrow by Turnball, well... Morrison's copy will be posted this arvo in the snail mail, he'll get it next week. Just because he is Treasurer doen't mean Turnball has to inform or consult Morrison on economic and financial matters, he can read all about it in the papers, like the rest of us.
No special privileges. If Morrison protests then Turnball can tell him to go count some beans.

Predictions:
Liberals will lose the election
Turnbull will resign
Warren Entsch will lose his seat in Cairns
Labor will make a co operative government with minority parties.
Bill Shortone will be Prime Minister (for a while)
As we go into recession and depression Labor will borrow more
Business will be taxed at a higher rate causing job losses
Succinctly we will be worse off than Italy
Actually it doesn't matter who wins the people will lose.

chrisgaff1000, we do have one enormous advantage over Italy: unlike them, we have unlimited credit because we own the RBA. No mstter how much debt we have, when our economy needs stimulating we can afford to just as easily as we could if we had no debt at all.

If Labor win the election and the economy needs stimulating, do you think they'd choose not to do so? If so, why?

Why do you think taxing businesses at a higher rate would cause job losses?

And if Turnbull resigns, who do you think would take over as Liberal leader?

The conservative commentators like Alan Jones and his sidekick Richo (don't be fooled, he as conserve as they come) are falling over themselves to stick it up Turnball. One might think Turnball has developed political leprosy. The 51/49 'Newspoll' doesn't include Turnball's income tax stuff up yet, next month could be worse, say 53/47. At 49 the enemy within grumble, at 47 the knives come out, at 45 it goodnight Malcolm!

Another stupidly from Turnball is if the Senate rejects his union bashing legislation he has committed to a long election campaign, which plays into the hands of Labor. When your in government the thing you want is snap elections, don't give the opposition time to gain momentum and get moving on their feet, next thing you know they will be counter punching and have you on the ropes. That is exactly what Turnball is doing, giving Labor and Shorten plenty of time to raise their profile with the electorate. At the moment the majority of voters know Turnball but only have a casual knowledge of Shorten. In normal mode the media coverage is about 2 to 1 for the incumbent, works well if you are doing okay, In election mode it a new ball game more like 50/50. A long campaign also gives the loose cannons within more time to shoot themselves and you. Labors front bench looks fairly well disciplined compared to the Coalition, with the likes of Abbott, Joyce, Morrison etc likely to blow up at anytime.

Turnball has problems!