Abbott is only doing to Turnbull what Turnbull did to Abbott. Turnbull also did to Abbott what he (Turnbull) criticised Gillard for doing to Rudd. Now, Turnbull is following Labor's lesson on how to get kicked.

The election has nothing to do with 'can Turnbull beat the opposition leader'; Turnbull can only beat his opponent in Wentworth; he is not the all-powerful el presidente yet. The question is can the Coalition retain government, and that is entirely up to voters. Turnbull has lost the votes of many people like me, for instance. The completely unknown candidate standing in my electorate has already insulted us without any help from Turnbull. The polls,if you can believe them, are already neck and neck this early. Shorten is seen by many as a liability, but then, so is Turnbull seen that way by many others. Lets' wait for the election results.

Regardless of what the media, polls, or politicians say about the coming election, it is of course up to the voters.
However, there is nothing wrong with speculating on what the results might be.

Personally, I think Turnbull and Co. might just make it over the line. Shorten just doesn't have the personality to inspire a majority of voters, despite what policies labor comes up with. I don't believe it is always about policies at all.

As for Abbott, he has Buckley's chance of ever having the top job again, because not only did his own party vote him out, but the majority of the Australian voters rejoiced when he was thrown out! The positive vibes on the streets and in the media at the time were palpable to any intelligent person.

Abbott made too many individual mad choices while PM, with the Prince Phillip debacle the last straw for many people.
The voters won't forget how they cringed watching Abbott embarrassing them on the world stage....

There's an interesting link by Terry Barnes that's
worth a read:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-13/barnes-can-one-shot-shorten-win-this-election/7085304

Barnes writes:

If you believe opinion polls, whenever the election is
called Shorten and the Labor Party face defeat...
It seems the only question is whether it will be an
honourable loss or catastrophic landslide at the hands
of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

Barnes goes on to tell us that Labor wants dissatisfied
voters to protest against Turnbull and the Coalition.
That Shorten is embarking on a national "whistle-stop,"
tour to campaign against raising the GST, cutting the
health budget and changing week-end penalty rates.

Then of course there's the question of Shorten's union
involvements, corruption, and other questions that the
Coalition can bring up to Shorten's detriment.

Barnes points out that a purely protest-based strategy
might have worked - perhaps - had unpopular Tony Abbott
remained Prime Minister. However Malcolm Turnbull
effectively usurped Shorten by becoming the solution to
voter dissatisfaction with Mr Abbott thereby with Mr
Turnbull's ascension the anger at the Coalition's
performance largely has dissipated leaving Bill Shorten
stranded unless he tries the other things that Barned
suggests in his link.

It's worth a read.

Beach, and how many of your prolific 5522 posts on this forum have influenced anybody/anything? Nil! How much of precious life hours have you wasted in those 5522 posts, and how many more will you add before a stroke or death might intervenes. you certainly have a way with words.

Paul1405,

You shouldn't judge others by your own automaton behaviour, supporting the Greens come what may and whatever that protest party says.

It is easier to always go with what the Party tells you and you always have a readymade excuse for personal failure, but what sort of an existence is that?

What the flakey Greens Trots, the NSW Watermelon Greens, should be doing at minimum is dumping that awful red-rag leftover from the Cold War, Lee Rhiannon(Brown) and useful idiots like the trivial Shoebridge and fully supporting Richard Di Natale.

Posted by Aidan. "So why, Beach, do you think the parties are so close in the polls?"

Because Aidan, people are not taking any where near as long to wake up to the fact that Turnbull is nothing but an empty bag of hot air, as they did with Rudd. About the only thing we have to thank Rudd for is his training in recognising a useless powder puff.

Don't forget Suse, that governments lose elections, not oppositions win them, or so the commentators say. Turnbull has already lost so many previously rusted on voters, he is well on his way. It could easily say on his tombstone, an unelected PM for a few months.

But to answer the question. Yes Turnbull COULD win an election, but more importantly will he.

Well he will have a long time of saying what he thinks electors want to hear. If he slips up just once & tells people what he thinks & believes, he's gone for all money. So the real question, can he convincingly lie for 3 months? Doubt it. He will fool some, but can he fool enough.

Foxy, kid you've got to get out more. Around this previously very safe Liberal electorate, Turnbull is less popular than Abbott ever was. In fact, he is even less popular than Gillard ever was, & that is really saying something.

Turnbull is the new dirty word we shout when we accidently hit our thumb with a hammer.