http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/20/battle-syria-battle-entire-middle-east?newsfeed=true

"The House of Assad is crumbling. Its fall will obviously transform Syria, a country that has lived under the boot-heel of that clan for four decades. But it will also radically affect the wider region. Syria, which borders Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey and Israel, does not keep itself to itself. As one former Obama official says: "Syria won't implode; it will explode." Put simply, the battle for Syria is a battle for the entire Middle East

The most immediate impact will be felt by Iran, which stands to lose not only its pivotal Arab ally but also the gateway Syria has long provided to Iran's proxy force in Lebanon, enabling Tehran to put upwards of 40,000 rockets in the hands of Hezbollah. Without Syria, Iran will lose that vital strategic bridgehead into the Arab world"

Notably Iran put down its own uprising recently, and must be watching with dismay at how the use of force has failed against a determined popular resistance. The tinder is dry and the question that must be in the heads of the Ayatollahs is whether the spark of democracy will jump the border.

I for one hope the call of democracy does jump the boarder to Iran.

I too want better for Iran, but is that what the Arab spring is delivering?
Is Egypt safe in democratic hands?
I remain unsure and every new uprising may bring us closer to a real war.

Dear Shadow Minister,

It would be great if democracy was able to jump the
boundaries into Iran. Unfortunately, I can't see
this happening for decades - yet. The Muslim religious
dominance is too entrenched for any kind of significant
opposition developing that would be strong enough to
change things as they stand. Don't forget that the
greatest upheaval came with the 1979 Iranian revolution,
in which the Shah, a deeply unpopular ruler who was
perceived as an American puppet, was deposed through a
movement led by Shiite Muslim clergy. I doubt if Iran
is ready for another upheaval just yet. However, one can
live and hope.

And, Lexi, let's not forget that the Shah was installed at the behest of the U.S. after it employed the CIA to undermine and overthrow Iran's "democratically elected" government in the early 50's.

Belly,
I share your misgivings about democracy in Egypt, and the Middle East generally. Has, or will, the so called Arab spring deliver better governments?

I think back to Iraq, where the people rejoiced when the statue of Hussein was pulled down. The goodwill lasted for about 2 weeks then they started to blow each other up, in effort to have one side, or the other, top dog.

They were given a unique opportunity to embrace democracy but they chose to fight each other over minor religous differences.

Some people are too stupid to help.

Banjo,

And some people are too stupid to be Presidents, Vice Presidents and Defense Secretaries...Some people, if they hadn't been so stupid, would have understood the power-plays in and around Iraq and realised that creating a vacuum was going to make a smooth transition to democracy very difficult indeed.

If America's leaders hadn't been so "stupid", they might have saved a lot of soldier's lives and spared the population of Iraq the degradation they have witnessed.

Poirot,
Well you are right about one thing. The yanks, and us, were stupid to go into Irag thinking they would like democracy. All that money and our boys lives when they are too bloody stupid to see a better life for themselves. They do not know any better than to fight over minor religous differences. Looks like they need a dictator like Hussein to guide their lives. They are still blowing each other up. sunnis verses Shiites. If a dictator wants to gas a thousand or two that are causing him trouble, who cares. We tried and it is not appreciated. If Iran hang a few and stone some to death, or flog women, so be it. It is not our concern.

Lybia and Egypt and now Syria won't get better governments. Like the countries in Africa, they were better off under colonial rule. These people have no concept of democracy.

It makes me mad to see our young blokes getting killed in Afghanistan and boat loads of their young coming here to hide and for the good life, when they should be fixing their own country. To hell with them, let the Taliban have the bloody place, it wouldn't run a black snake anyway. Just a few acres here and there to grow poppies.

Certainly not worth our effort.

The Muslim brotherhood will and is already shown that they will be worse than the dictators they replaced. They murder Christians and want Sharia law. As someone rightly says '"A prisoner in Guantanamo Bay possesses more rights than a Jew or a Christian who lives under Sharia law.' The religion of peace latest
2012.07.19 (Karachi, Pakistan) - A 52-year-old leader of the Ahamdi minority is shot in the head by defenders of mainstream Islam.
2012.07.19 (Maiduguri, Nigeria) - Two traders at a market are murdered in cold blood by Boko Haram gunmen.
2012.07.19 (Sheikh Zweid, Egypt) - Bearded Islamists in robes machine-gun two local soldiers along a city street at point blank range.
2012.07.19 (Faryab, Afghanistan) - A woman and child are among eight civilians ripped to pieces by a Taliban bomb.
2012.07.18 (Kerala, India) - Campus Islamists stab three Hindu students, one of whom bleeds to death.
2012.07.18 (al-Shati, Pal. Auth.) - A 17-year-old girl is strangled by her father and brother over a moral issue.

Banjo,

I note the yanks weren't trying very hard to stop Saddam's gas attacks on Iranian soldiers while they were bosom buddies in the eighties. Nup, they went right on selling him weapons...oh, well, I suppose not all gas attacks are equal.

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB82/

Poirot, not going to take you on in the anti yank stuff.
I have shared those views.
Banjo, you are being a bit harsh,*to stupid*
We may well see many more deaths much more war from the middle east, in fact we will be engulfed by it one day.
But, no harm intended just expressing my right to think as I wish.
A religion crafted in control, in blind unquestioned faith.
In one path education.
One that ultimately says God is in control we need not consider our actions?
How could they be free?
I wish for freedom won for them selves and am sure most there do to.
Very strong forces are involved greed and yes, a religion built to control, or more unfortunately, be used to control.

Belly,

It's more anti anybody who invades a country under the guise of altruism, who destroys lives and infrastructure, causes misery and a mass exodus of refugees - all for unfettered influence over that country's primary resource.

Poirot,

You are conveniently forgetting that Iran was holding all the US embassy hostage in the 80s. The US was using Iraq as a proxy to kill as many Iranians as possible.

SM,

Yes, I take your point - although the Islamic uprising I believe was attributable to the U.S. inspired events in the fifties.

What everyone seems to overlook with this region is that it has been over the years colonised so comprehensively by Britain and France and later America. Every time it attempts to throw off the yoke of imperialism, tumultuous events follow as the population leans towards a religious autocracy as the route to autonomy

Poirot,

That is a very long bow!

Yeah, I suppose it is....although being ruled by an American puppet for all those years would have had something to do with it.

It is interesting, as I've mentioned, that these populations tend to gravitate towards strict theocracies or dictatorships. But then what does Iran make of circumstances when their chance at a democratically elected government was nullified by American and British interference.

Shadow Minister,you are sounding like a war mongerer.Western Forces are in Syria killing and stirring up trouble.It has nothing to do with democracy.

Arjay,

Predictably you focus on rumours of western involvement in the uprising rather than the 20 000 unarmed protesters murdered by the brutal Syrian regime.

The extremist moslem behaviour you are seeing is a result of their
multigenerational practice of cousin marriage.
It does lower intelligence and leads to poor behaviour and emotional
eratic actions. Just like we see in the Shiite/Sunni bombings.

The odd thing is that an agricultural people raising animals should
know better, but perhaps they think that Allah will make an exception for moslems.

Bazz,

What about the extreme Western behaviour of dropping bombs on innocent men, women and children, blowing them to bits and destroying infrastructure - and giving it a title. if you please - "Shock and Awe"

Much more civilised, I'm sure you'll agree.

(And the maestro of these events, a certain George Dubya, is a wonderful ambassador for Western intelligence - don't you think?)

belly said "I too want better for Iran, but is that what the Arab spring is delivering? Is Egypt safe in democratic hands?"
Ha ha ha, Belly, you haven'y go a clue,have you. Egypt is in d.i.r.e. Straits; that is their 'democracy' is the Democratice Islamic Republic of Egypt. What a wonderful choice. Military dictatorship OR islamic dictatorship. There you go, true Illuminati democracy.

Bazz,
I don't know if Arab stupidity is the result of inbreeding or not. I do know that, after the defeat of Husein the Iraqies had Democracy handed to them on a plate and they were too stupid to embrace it. They prefered to fight their opposing religous group.

That is why I reckon there is no chance of the arab spring resulting in better governments in the Middle East. They will continue their religous conflicts.

We are better off to keep our troops home and spend the money on our own infastructure. Leave the Arabs to sort out their own mess.

You cannot fix stupid.

Poirot,
You forgot to mention how the Iraqy people rejoiced when the statue of Hussein came down. Bush was their hero then.

You are trying to infer that the people loved Hussein, which is quite wrong, they hung him.

Yanks killed very few civilians. Most civilians killed were by the Iraqies themselves with homemade bombs.

Banjo,

I'm not inferring anything of the sort. I'm pointing out that America and its allies invaded Iraq under false pretences. Saddam's downfall was celebrated. He was a tyrant - yet I haven't noticed the U.S. rushing to Zimbabwe to relieve the population of Mugabe. (yes, I know good ol' America can't be expected to police the world, especially if there's nothing in it for them)

What I'm saying is that the West, in the guise of America, might have more sophisticated ways of delivering its punch, but it's no less depraved than anyone else when it wants a piece of someone else's pie.

pepper,

"...Belly, you haven't got a clue, have you..."

Perhaps if the IMF and the World Bank hadn't supported Mubarak's corrupt regime with such enthusiasm, the general population mightn't have seen the standard of living go backwards to such an extent. Same old same old, as in Iran after the Shah, their reaction was predictable.

Banjo,

It just occurred to me with you reminiscing how thrilled Iraqi's were at the invasion. Its akin to America saying:

"Stand aside, Iraqi. Just excuse us while we blow you to smithereens, mutilate your family and plunge your society back into the Dark Ages.....can't you see we're trying to deliver you from a nasty tyrant here."

Poirot. you missed the point, New York wasn't bombing California,
Florida wasn't bombing Texas, etc etc.

The standard of living in Egypt fell for very easily known reasons.
Egypt had an oil industry that provided plenty of profits to supply
subsidised petrol & diesel prices as well as subsidised food prices.
When Egyptian Peak OIl (oh dear there are those two words again)
occurred the profits disappeared and the standard of living fell as
they had to pay a lot more for food and everything else.

What happened to the Egypt people will happen to us as Australian
Peak Oil continues down its depletion slope. So far we have been
holding up our standard of living by imports and 60% imports.
As world oil prices increase we will not be able to afford the cost
to our balance of payments, around $40 billion a year by then.
Another way to look at it; an NBN EVERY Year !

But when ? Well 15% depletion rate on 400,000 barrels a day.
Only a few years.
Now you can see why the oil companies are closing their refineries.

Poirot, don't you ever get tired of that stupid 'tu quoque' argument ? Which invariably degenerates into: 'Nyah, nyah, your dad is worse than my dad, and anyway my uncle's a policeman and he'll put you in jail, etc.'

In the three-way academic contest between Mossadegh and the Shah and the Ayatollahs, for example, I would have no trouble putting them in this order:

* Mossadegh
* the Shah
* the Ayatollahs.

Otherwise, there is a time when you have to say 'a pox on both their houses'.

Joe

Zibigniew Brezezinski,1998 "What we need is a truely massive and widely perceived direct external threat." That threat which they initiated was terrorism.

Vietnam was a lie there was no attack from Nth Vietnam at the Gulf of Tonkin.We know Iraq was a lie and the reason for attacking Libya was oil, gold and to kick China out who had 30,000 workers there.

As general Smedly Butler said in 1929 "war is a racket." We know they make $ trillions from war and even more from the oil.

This is all about their New World Order which Labor has dedicated 10% of our carbon taxes toward.

Russia may let Syria go and make a real stand on Iran to stop this Imperialist march to Global domination.

Iran used to be a healthy open democracy.

As was Iraq - and Chile - and Argentina, and many others who made the terrible mistake of wanting to control their own resources for the benefit of their own people.

Iran was also once regarded a moderate society, until the puppet Shah literally killed off all his moderate opposition and opened the door to Muslim Fundamentalism. It was also once a natural ally of Israel, being another non-Arab state surrounded by hostile forces.

Nobody ever mentions Saudi Arabia anymore - a repressive dictatorship and financier of terrorism. I wonder why?

Syria has admitted to having chemical weapons but has been forbidden to use them - by the same powers who supplied similar weapons to Saddam Hussein for him to use against Iran om their behalf.

All the chaos you see in the middle east today is the result of self-interested interference from foreign (mainly corporate) powers and everybody is now paying the price.

Wobbles said;
Nobody ever mentions Saudi Arabia anymore - a repressive dictatorship
and financier of terrorism. I wonder why?

Well I believe your supposition is correct.
If Doctor Mengles was trying to keep you alive would you take him to
task for his work at Auschwitz ?