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The Forum > General Discussion > Today Syria, tomorrow Iran?

Today Syria, tomorrow Iran?

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/20/battle-syria-battle-entire-middle-east?newsfeed=true

"The House of Assad is crumbling. Its fall will obviously transform Syria, a country that has lived under the boot-heel of that clan for four decades. But it will also radically affect the wider region. Syria, which borders Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey and Israel, does not keep itself to itself. As one former Obama official says: "Syria won't implode; it will explode." Put simply, the battle for Syria is a battle for the entire Middle East

The most immediate impact will be felt by Iran, which stands to lose not only its pivotal Arab ally but also the gateway Syria has long provided to Iran's proxy force in Lebanon, enabling Tehran to put upwards of 40,000 rockets in the hands of Hezbollah. Without Syria, Iran will lose that vital strategic bridgehead into the Arab world"

Notably Iran put down its own uprising recently, and must be watching with dismay at how the use of force has failed against a determined popular resistance. The tinder is dry and the question that must be in the heads of the Ayatollahs is whether the spark of democracy will jump the border.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Saturday, 21 July 2012 6:35:00 AM
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I for one hope the call of democracy does jump the boarder to Iran.
Posted by 579, Saturday, 21 July 2012 3:15:36 PM
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I too want better for Iran, but is that what the Arab spring is delivering?
Is Egypt safe in democratic hands?
I remain unsure and every new uprising may bring us closer to a real war.
Posted by Belly, Saturday, 21 July 2012 3:46:59 PM
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Dear Shadow Minister,

It would be great if democracy was able to jump the
boundaries into Iran. Unfortunately, I can't see
this happening for decades - yet. The Muslim religious
dominance is too entrenched for any kind of significant
opposition developing that would be strong enough to
change things as they stand. Don't forget that the
greatest upheaval came with the 1979 Iranian revolution,
in which the Shah, a deeply unpopular ruler who was
perceived as an American puppet, was deposed through a
movement led by Shiite Muslim clergy. I doubt if Iran
is ready for another upheaval just yet. However, one can
live and hope.
Posted by Lexi, Saturday, 21 July 2012 4:51:19 PM
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And, Lexi, let's not forget that the Shah was installed at the behest of the U.S. after it employed the CIA to undermine and overthrow Iran's "democratically elected" government in the early 50's.
Posted by Poirot, Saturday, 21 July 2012 7:22:40 PM
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Belly,
I share your misgivings about democracy in Egypt, and the Middle East generally. Has, or will, the so called Arab spring deliver better governments?

I think back to Iraq, where the people rejoiced when the statue of Hussein was pulled down. The goodwill lasted for about 2 weeks then they started to blow each other up, in effort to have one side, or the other, top dog.

They were given a unique opportunity to embrace democracy but they chose to fight each other over minor religous differences.

Some people are too stupid to help.
Posted by Banjo, Saturday, 21 July 2012 8:13:52 PM
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