The Forum > General Discussion > More evidence for AGW
More evidence for AGW
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Posted by Belly, Friday, 15 June 2012 5:10:26 AM
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Hi Anthony,
Don't let them put you off, keep at it: we know the politics of AGW, and most people's positions, are pretty much settled. As you write, "Here is a paper, the result of high quality research, by respected researchers, working at one of the most prestigious laboratories, supported by masses of factual data, and with all funding sources listed - about as good a quality piece of research reporting as one could find ..... " Well, that convinces me. And how much human-induced change are we talking about ? "The observed global average ocean warming (from the surface to 700 meters) is approximately 0.025 degrees Celsius per decade, or slightly more than 1/10th of a degree Celsius over 50 years." A fortieth of a degree Celsius in barely a decade ! Don't people realise what this means ?! A whole degree in barely four hundred years ! So the last word on ocean warming - the equivalent of a degree in 400 years. Okay, I'll run with that from now on. I'm sure that I will notice the difference in about 800 years. That's when they'll be laughing on the other side of their faces. Yeah, they'll be sorry they ever doubted AGW. Just a note about your comment on Bangla Desh: for decades, it has been known that the Indian plate pushing under the Himalayan plate is having a long-term devastating effect on Bangla Desh, that the plate on which it sits is tilting slowly downwards to the east, and slightly upwards towards the west in Bengal, so that the Brahmaputra region - pretty much all of Bangla Desh - is sinking, relative to sea-level. Oh well, back to something serious. Cheers, Jo Posted by Loudmouth, Friday, 15 June 2012 9:22:51 AM
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Lucifer & SM, you are both going on about something that will be
redundant anyway. The problem we have upcoming is our GDP will not cover our interest on our borrowings and we will drift into the same situation as Spain. Our cost of energy is climbing and because electricity and petrol are not very subject to more than a small amount of conservation our electricity demand will not reduce until unemployment rises dramatically. When you subtract mining GDP from 4.5 there is about 1%, or was it less than 1, GDP for the rest of Australia. Our oil import bill is about 3% of our GDP. Crash point is 3 to 4 %. This GDP level is similar to the best of Europe so what makes anyone think we can keep on as we are now as China keeps cutting back. I can assure you they are not worrying much about CO2 in Europe. I would like to hear discussion on what we can do to compensate for falling GDP and going into an economic contraction. I think our options will be very limited. Posted by Bazz, Friday, 15 June 2012 9:32:50 AM
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Bazz,
I'm sorry mate but you are plain misinformed. Australia's Public Debt as a percentage of GDP is about one fifth of Southern European countries and less than a quarter of the US. This ratio (debt/GDP) is the best measure of public debt as it accurately expresses our ability to pay. The inescapable fact is that Australia's public debt is among the lowest in the world and we are and will remain for the foreseeable future easily able to manage our debt. This point of view is supported by how the ratings agencies see us. Moreover, one of the factors driving up the AUD is that it is increasingly being perceived as a safe haven, precisely because our debt levels are so low. See Aussie bond rates for verification of this. Private debt levels are admittedly high, but have fallen dramatically during the past 2 years. Furthermore, when compared with our ability per capita to pay, as expressed by average wages, we again see that Australia is in good shape. In addition, a substantial proportion of private debt is paying for revenue generating projects, e.g. mining investments, that will further improve our ability to pay debt in the future. I know Abbott and Hockey would have us believe differently, but there's no escaping the data. Anthony http://www.observationpoint.com.au Posted by Anthonyve, Friday, 15 June 2012 10:08:25 AM
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Anthony said;
Public Debt as a percentage of GDP Well all that would be loverly Anthony if that was all that is involved. What I am talking about is energy as a percentage of GDP. That is what crashes the economy as it cannot be afforded above about 3%. However our oil import bill is about $18 billion and increasing and our local buying is another $18 billion and decreasing as we deplete at around 12 to 20% a year. That is an NBN every year. China has continued to wind back its purchases from us, and it will be interesting to see how it affects govt revenues. It will take very little reduction in income to put us well into the danger area of energy costs taking us into contraction. It won't matter two hoots what anybody thinks of our economy once that that happens. Oil is today quite cheap at $100 a barrel but it will not be long before it gets back to its more normal price of about $125 to $130. What you say about Hockey & Abbott is just as true for Gillard & Swan. All politicians either do not have a clue or subscribe to the world politician's fear of acknowledging the problem and are happy to ignore the data. Posted by Bazz, Friday, 15 June 2012 10:48:21 AM
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noted that the govt pensions scam
[who got the privatisation..of telstra moneies] isnt doing as grand as hoped hence govt will in time need to top that up so it needs new flows of income..sugar coating the red pill sure we got compensation[but knowing govt it isnt 'indexed' yet what we must pay is...[so the scam does other lies] gives away fluero light bulbs[obsolete as they were gifted away yet govt bought at huge cost..ditto solasr cells...spend the cash on obsolete teqnoligy like nbn...now putting in the fibre WE PAID FOR..via connection charge of a dollar per day but public servants turned into their cashcow..[its lies upon lies] WHAT PROOF DO I HAVE that the one of the 500 BIG POLUTERS[who alone must pay] did actually buy aussie carbon permits..or fake ones for cdents on the dollar sure[today govt gives 90%..for free that they force us to buy for cash but next year do they get 90%..free or 89%...[dito the cash buy back for solar the more double priced solar they have to buy the more we all pay...yes double seems good today but in ten years your paying plenty more[then you who think you got a free lunch will notice we got rid of cheap easy energy[to get what like nuke power? http://whatreallyhappened.com/ or how aboit bio fuel http://en.mercopress.com/2012/06/14/shell-drops-plan-to-buy-sugar-cane-grown-on-land-taken-from-indigenous-people how much has solar 'industry' sped up polution[making them expensive subsidised toys for the cool girls wanting to be boys its a scam its a tax no tax on any people she leads well yeah except for you..too voiceless to complain or explain..[how the tax is the right thing to do[lol..blame all polution on a scape goat[and no one goes to jail] work til you drop http://www.alternet.org/newsandviews/article/964707/world%E2%80%99s_richest_man_calls_for_increasing_retirement_age_to_70/ cause we spent ya pension funds building vlats in ireland/spain Posted by one under god, Friday, 15 June 2012 10:49:19 AM
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Abbott needed the deniers to gain power, he is and always was driven by that wish.
He is on record as both denying climate change and saying it is real and we are contributing to it.
In chasing support from the deniers he stands on two wires each moving away from each other.
He could do himself much damage.
In power,he will be replaced before that happens, changing events will see Conservatives/Liberals , not dump the tax.
Slowly but surely they will adopt ALP policy here.
As soon as this year world movements ,slow unproductive still, toward true cuts will force change.
If you enjoy a laugh watch such as Shadow Minister try to position them selves with those about to reclaim the Liberal party.
And too, watch the slow to start but unstoppable, unraveling of some state governments, promised made vs those broken is mountain high.