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The Forum > General Discussion > Arab Spring ?

Arab Spring ?

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SPQR, The points you raise probably require answers more researched
than I can give,
However there are a few fundamentals that are well known.
When I say die off I don't mean hundreds of millions I mean billions.

Not all on the one day of course, but certainly faster than the population rose.
The availability of oil will take a long time to get down to levels that it
will no longer be used for diesel and petrol. No doubt oil will be reserved
for food production, so the food depletion will be in track with oil depletion.
Further slowing will be enabled by people taking up farming, but there is a
limit to the amount of arible land.
The earth simply cannot support 7 billion sustance farmers.
The current food supply is the result of industrial farming.
Some say it is not sustainable anyway.

The United Nations has warned that food availabilty for UN programs
has run low and some programs cannot be supported.

It has been calculated that our energy intense food production uses
10 calories for every calorie of food produced.
However it has been the availability of cheap energy, almost entirely oil,
that has ebabled the feeding of 7 billion people.

An example of what may be in store for us as you no doubt have seen on TV.
The problems in the Horn of Africa are being made worse by regional
disputes over land and territory. Drought has made all their troubles
so much worse.
I really cannot see how we will get around this winding down.
Alternative energy in the magnitude of what is needed looks like being magic pudding stuff.

There is however a worry that systems people are warning about.
Complex systems don't normally collapse gently.
They start slowly winding down and then shortages in critical components start to occur.
This cascades and rapidly crashes the whole system.
Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 7 February 2012 5:10:32 PM
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Cont SPQR
Your earlier comment;
I can't see it.The hue & cry will be we have to take them in as
refugees and/or fund their upkeep for however long it takes.
>;>;>
Errr, this situation has to be considered permanent until the
population falls to a sustainable level that the earth can support.

Well, I just heard on SBS that 60% of Egypt's population is under 30.

If their own agriculture can support 20 million then 60 million will
either have to leave or work in tourism and import the food difference.
Another question, where would they get the food difference ?

Where will they go ? Europe is obvious but migration in those sort of
numbers, admitably, over some years together with the immigration from
other areas would descend into war almost immediately.
Is the illegal immigration we are seeing in Italy the start of it ?

Another possibility would be to go south into fertile Africa.

It is a bleak outlook, but that is what the maths tell you.
Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 7 February 2012 9:24:29 PM
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Sadly I have to agree with runners first post on this thread. Non PC as it may be, there were twelve wealthy and powerful famailies and the military running Egypt. Now there are eleven wealthy and powerful families and the military running Egypt. So some token "democracy" in the short term? 30 odd years of oppression, poverty and vengence to catch up on? And a non stop power play for the next few years.

Never take something away until you have a replacement and be careful what you wish for.
Posted by spindoc, Wednesday, 8 February 2012 12:03:07 PM
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I wonder if the sons of the multi-billionaires in the middle east are in the armed forces & do similar to those two white Princes William & Harry such as flying missions.
Posted by individual, Saturday, 11 February 2012 6:42:12 PM
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Interesting thought individual,

Most military dictators around the globe were trained at Sandhurst or some such military academy. Start off as a Staff Sergeant or NCO, when you start the military coup you just upgrade your rank to say Colonel.

The sons of royal (benign dictatorships) likewise have officer rank and nice uniforms with lots of gold braid and “campaign paraphernalia” The main difference between these two groups and the British Princes seems to be one serves the military, the others serves “in” the military
Posted by spindoc, Sunday, 12 February 2012 7:15:07 AM
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Come to think of it, that Saudi prince who recently got his private A380 for $1 billion. He already has several Airbus & Boeing Aircraft. I wonder if he offers them to aid organisations to deliver food etc .
Some enlightenment would be appreciated re wealthy Arab benevolence.
Posted by individual, Sunday, 12 February 2012 9:16:40 AM
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