It wasn't all that long ago that the Egypt situation occurred. The ousting of the president was to herald good new times ahead. Those who doubted it were called all sorts of names.
So, to all those name callers what do you think of the situation re an Arab Spring after the soccer game ?
How do you feel if that lot starts climbing into boats bound for here ?

impossible to bring democracy to uncivilised people. I know it does not fit humanistic dogma however more will be worse off under the muslim brotherhood than the previous dictators. Christians are already being slaughtered and driven from their houses under the barbaric regime. Women will soon all be forced to wear headgear and homosexuals stoned. The West will be dumb enough to ask what went wrong.

Sometimes, runner, your posts take my breath away.

Those Athenians who we hold up as the inventors of democracy were hardly more civilised than that mob in Egypt. I mean, they didn't give Socrates a fair go, did they. Just because he saw things differently from most of his fellow citizens, he got to sup on a delightful infusion of hemlock.

And those Romans who championed democracy in the days of the Republic - well, flinging the disabled and mentally ill from the Tarpeian Rock alongside murderers and traitors hardly indicates that they were very civilised by today's standards.

That you show concern for Egyptian Christians but disregard the rest speaks volumes.

Otokonoko,

"Sometimes, runner, your posts take my breath away."

Yup...it's extraordinary how runner consistently manages to convey sentiments almost diametrically opposed to those displayed by Christ.

And another thing, runner, if it wasn't for the custodianship of the many libraries that existed in places like Islamic Cordoba during Europe's Dark Ages, much of antiquity's wisdom would have been lost to the West and the world.

Otokonoko & Poirot,
What you're saying is indisputable however what do make of the situation now ? Just about every civilisation has gone through that. To me it comes down to this. Don't people ever learn from past mistakes & wrong-doing ?
Are we therefore supposed to accept that we have to let our standards go down the tube now because some idiots didn't think any different 2000 years ago than what some morons do now ?
What do both of you suggest now should be done to prevent another armada of refugees from heading this way ? Or, are you actually in favour of it ?

The russians and chinese, are standing in the road to do something in Syria by the UN.

individual,

Humans are humans are humans. Yes, I realise that we cossetted flowers in the West have no particular reason to revolt. We have stable government, access to lots of goodies and our wars are all fought in other people's countries.

I wonder how stable our society would be if we'd been long subject to a dictator regime like Hosni Mubarak's - one that was supported and propped up by two of the West's favoured institutions, the World Bank and the IMF. Egyptians were privatised and "structurally adjusted" to within an inch of their lives, all of which lined the pockets of the ruling elite and Western corporations, yet further impoverished the general population.

People don't rise up for nothing, you pair of clods - why don't you and runner undertake a bit of research.

http://anilnetto.com/corporate-led-globalisation/imfworld-bank/egypt-followed-imfworld-bank-ideas/

Otokonoko

So you think democracy has improved things in Iraq. I thought you and Poirot were opposed to this 'illegal war'. I take it you also endorse the Muslim brotherhood seen they will be the democrtically elected Government. It is the hypocrisy of the left that use to take my breath away however I am now use to it.

runner,

The delivery of "democracy" to Iraq by the U.S. and its merry band of acolytes was undertaken as with false altruism in pursuit of influence and resources.

"Shock and Awe'....yep, that's the way to set a country up for societal stability. Apply sanctions for over a decade, then unleash an Armageddon-style bombardment followed by an occupation. Destroy every kind of critical infrastructure, slaughter and traumatise thousands upon thousands of inhabitants - and then stand back and shake you head amidst the vacuum created and the squabbles that erupt to fill it.

I wonder why "democracy" couldn't just be rolled out like some Persian carpet over the bones of those who perished for the cause of U.S. and Western imperialism?

Dear Indy,

We are all aware of the fact that over the past
decades religious fervour has erupted in the
Islamic world in general and in the Middle
East in particular and the trends in Islamic
societies are potentially of global importance.
Islam is one of the world's major religions.
It claims the allegiance of a fifth of the entire
human population.

Most Muslims are desperately poor, for their
nations' oil wealth has often been unequally shared,
creating an elite whose extravagant lifestyle
arouses deep resentment in the populace.

The opposition
to the dictatorial regime in Egypt has arisen out os
specific social and cultural conditions that hopefully
will influence the subsequent course of social
change in that country for the better. We can only
hope.

Being ruled by a dictator that kills members of the other tribe, and warfare between tribes are two different situations.

Contrary to what the puff piece from Poirot might have you believe.
The root problem with Egypt is TOO MANY PEOPLE.

In earlier times Egypt was the bread basket of the Mediterranean.
But with 80 million people, it is endanger of becoming a basket case:
http://www.google.com.au/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_pop_totl&idim=country:EGY&dl=en&hl=en&q=graph+egyptian+population

And contrary to the glib claim that "Mubarak caused it".
Mubarak for all his faults did much to subsidize food for the poor.
It is no mere coincidence that the recent uprising followed close on the heals of food price rises.
http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=90363

SPQR,

"endemic corruption..and privatisation....marginalising enormous segments of the population, which barely subsisted while a small group of their compatriots accumulated generous benefits."

http://www.whistleblower.org/blog/31-2010/1083-arab-uprisings-show-the-impact-of-the-world-bank-and-the-imf

That's usually the way it goes....when one is "subsisting", SPQR, a rise in food prices (much of which was caused by speculaltion in global markets) tends to make you hungry.

Yeah...Mubarak and his Egyptian and Western cohorts were saints....

To me at least the underlying gist here is let's protect what we have & don't open the gates when those people who can't handle the situation after getting rid of a so-called dictator, start eying our shores.
We'd be much wiser to stop importing mindlessness & start exporting practical sense. Rid the foreign affairs departments of experts & replace them with people who know. It's the only way to better the world in my book. Assist those poorer countries with pragmatism & materials not cash. Our building industry is screaming for work. Let's create some with the money that otherwise goes into the accounts of a few. We could pre-fab so much here & create a win-win situation in the long run.

individual,

Love your mindset....regarding the building industry crying out for work...maybe the concreting industry might be the way to go. We could build a great big wall around Australia.

I hear that strategy is being employed with great success in another country.

<<"endemic corruption..and privatisation....marginalising enormous segments of the population, which barely subsisted while a small group of their compatriots accumulated generous benefits.">>

So Poriot, if Egypt's problems stem mainly from Mr Ms corrupt rule.
Then the military or (your mates) in the Muslim Brotherhood should be able to turn things around now he's gone.
My prediction is things will not change much for the underclasses no matter who rules.

PS Mr M was no saint, but he's far & away ahead of some of the saints the Muslim Brotherhood & their allies are likely to dignify.

<<Love your mindset....regarding the building industry crying out for work...maybe the concreting industry might be the way to go. We could build a great big wall around Australia.

I hear that strategy is being employed with great success in another country>>

Yep! It works for much of Asia --though not via a wall.
You only need a strong wall if your leaders have a weak backbone.
Just say "No, to illegals!" & send them packing.

build a great big wall around Australia.
Poirot,
cheaper to keep the ALP supporters away from the coast when boats arrive.

individual,

It seems I was a little hard on the last of your posts to which i replied.... you offered some practical ideas.

SPQR,

Yes endemic corruption by the Egyptian elite...but supported by those Western institutions...some would call that a partnership.

Could some of you indigenous posters tell us your opinion on the possibility of Egyptian refugees eyeing up those shores ? What's your stance on the prospect of yet more boat arrivals ?

Sorry, individual, for temporarily diverting attention away from the gist of the original post. Sometimes I just can't help myself.

Much of what has been said since I last posted rings true to me.

For all his flaws, Mubarak did maintain a degree of stability in Egypt. In the months before he was thrown out, I was actually in the process of organising a move to Egypt for a couple of years - Egypt specifically because it was one of the safest options for work in the Arab world. Strangely, it was the 'liberation' of Egypt by its popular uprising, and the ousting of its 'evil dictator', that put a stop to that. In these situations, one can never tell if the outcome will be better or worse than the original situation.

As for the potential influx of illegal immigrants, I'm not really in a position to talk about that. Here in Townsville, we are somewhat detached from those issues. We're only just gaining our trickle of Sudanese immigrants, years after the larger cities down south got theirs; Arabs and the other 'usual suspects' are still remarkably scarce. As a result, while I can hold views about asylum seekers/illegal immigrants, those views are based on an abstract concept with very little real bearing on my life. Out of respect for those who actually have to deal with the matter, or have had their lives impacted by these people, I'll decline to comment lest I make an idiot of myself.

Otokonoko,

Sadly, instability does follow popular uprising.

Mostly people behave like sheep....like they did under Suharto and Marcos - like they still do under Mugabe.

I must say I'm fascinated by the plaudits being tossed by those here in Mubarak's direction because he managed "for so long" to pacify and subjugate the general population while simultaneously further impoverishing them.

Shame about your travel plans....

Aww, now you make me feel shallow! I guess what it comes down to is that my choice was easy. I chose not to go to Egypt. Had I gone, I would have been able to choose to leave, without abandoning my whole life.

The people of Egypt also have a choice, but it's not so easy. When my family decided leave Zimbabwe shortly after its 'liberation', we had to leave it all behind, pack a couple of suitcases and pretend we were going on a holiday. With the government censoring mail - especially 'official' mail from foreign countries - we arrived in NZ with blind faith that we'd be allowed to stay (NZ had a fairly relaxed immigration policy). All that my parents had worked for, their life savings, all they had grown up with and their friends and family stayed behind. That's not an easy choice.

Where this relates to the Arab Spring is that those who choose to ride out the storm can't be sure things will get better. Zimbabwe didn't. A key difference is that they are on the 'right' side and in the majority. We were remnants of a 'rogue state' and in the minority - we knew things wouldn't get better for us.

In the west, we can aid and support popular uprisings from afar, but I think we must focus on the 'popular' as much as the 'uprising'. If we get our hands dirty, we need to ensure that we are doing so in a way that helps to stabilise a country in a form that the people of that country can accept. A stable ship with unhappy passengers is no better than a turbulent ship with happy ones.

Your suggestions about Mubarak ring true, too. Many dictatorial regimes through time have enjoyed prosperity, safety and a facade of 'all being good'. I think it was Bryce Courtenay who noted that the cruellest regimes tend to have the best roads - thank Hitler for the Autobahn and Mussolini for the Autostrada. It's a difficult path to navigate between impoverished freedom and imprisoned prosperity.

This article from the Energy Bulletin explains some of the biophysical facts about Egypt.

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-02-10/egypts-warning-are-you-listening

The population has nearly tripled since 1960. Egypt imports 60% of its grain. In the past, Egypt used oil exports to pay for food imports, which were heavily subsidised for the consumer, but oil production there is now in serious decline.

To be sure, corruption has made the underlying problems worse, but it is likely that the unrest will continue, no matter who is in power or how honest they are. After all, the new government won't be able to bring dowm the price of food or find jobs for all the young people, any more than Mubarak could.

Otokonoko,

You are far from shallow, my friend.

Human behaviour is so contrary that it's almost impossible to pour forth a view on one subject without contradicting oneself regarding another (at least I find it so in my case)

According to Noam Chomsky...the biologist, Ernst Mayr, considered that perhaps homo sapiens sapiens were a kind of "biological error", "using their allotted 100,000 years to destroy themselves and, in the process, much else."

Makes you wonder.

I came late to this discussion and I have just read all the comments.
Everyone except SPQR and Divergence have got it entirely wrong.

It is not the evil west or those in power in Egypt that are the problem.
Read the link from Divergence that has all the info.
Egypt has for years been subsidising their food prices with funds from
selling oil but after Egypt's oil production peaked and then gradually
fell until they became an importer of oil, then they had to stop the subsidy.
The increased cost of food was what the revolution was about, but they
do not realise that their revolution cannot fix the problem.

Over the years since oil was discovered their population rose to 80M.
There is only one solution, about 60 million of them must starve.
Then their land will support their population.

Welcome to the post peak oil world !

Bazz and SPQR,
Do you know where Egypt's rapid rise in population came from, It cannot triple in 30 years just from natural increase.

Poirot,
Contrary to what you say, I recall the war in Iraq being over in a very short time and the whole population rejoicing after the statue of Hussian came down. That lasted for all of a fortnight and the Sunnis and the Shites started blowing each other up. Each vieing to be top dog, our involvmet since was to stop civil war. These people are so stupid that they see minor religous differences as being far more important than democracy. The Kurds copped it from both the others. Maybe they need a tough dictator to keep them happy.

Egypt may well go the same and the Yanks are not there to prevent it.

Hard to beat stupidity.

Banjo, I have seen reports that some 80% of their population is under 25.
I think it implied they were all born there but there may have large
influx, I just don't know, but just that about 60 million must die or
emmigrate and starve somewhere else.

Banjo,

So you recall the war in Iraq being over in a short time...

I presume the "war" for you consisted of lots of bright lights and booms on the telly, while the U.S. set about obliterating Iraq's infrastructure...but wait....once the statue was toppled all was well.

Such is the symbolism of the modern news grab....Statue toppled = War is Over.

The "yanks" knew there would be a vacuum left in the wake of Saddam...so it was always factored in that there would be an occupation following the premeditated destruction.

"The yanks aren't there to prevent it."

Don't waste my time with guff about U.S. altruism. They were happy to send Rumsfeld as an emissary to Saddam in the early eighties. Happy they were to supply him with weapons - and turn a blind eye as he merrily gassed the Iranians.

I don't know about stupidity, but it's sure hard to beat ignorance.

Poirot,
You can put any spin you like on it, but the war in Iraq was over when the statue was toppled. No question, the defeat of Saddam's regime.

The population was joyous, but the idiots, the Sunnis and the Shites, started to blow each other up, in effort to be top dog. It was the continued presence and work of the coalition forces that prevented total civil war. The population was/is too stupid to grasp the democratic opportunity given them.

The yanks,or others, are not in Egypt to prevent civil war so it is likely to happen. So much for the Arab Spring.

Syria and Libya could be the same, civil war killing people but they are too stupid to do otherwise. Religous and tribal differences are far more important to them.

The only decent thing to come out of the Arab states for years is that Iran has shown the world how to reduce the birthrate from 6.5 to about 1.7 per woman, by education and contraception.

Banjo,

"The population was joyous."...."but the idiots, the Sunnis and the Shites started to blow each other up.."

The Sunnis and the Shiites "are" the population you alluded to.

According to your spin, the U.S. thought they could just drop in, bomb the heart out of the place, remove the tyrant and quietly exit the scene having delivered "democracy"....then, deary me, they were taken aback when there was a bit of a squabble to fill the power vacuum.

Well, who'd have thunk that?

The destruction of Iraq was an extremely profitable enterprise for private U.S. corporations. There was profit to be made for the arms manufacturers in the knocking it down - and profit to be made by private contractors in the building it back up. Countless billions were funnelled from U.S. government coffers to private corporations during the war.

Nothing short of the devastation wrought would have sufficed.

What a wonderful way to provide Iraqis with a "democratic opportunity".

Banjo,

You need to understand the Poirot mindset--It's not a lot different from the Marilyn Shepherd mindset.
In such a world view the West is the root of all evil, the domain of robber barons.

The West caused the present unrest in Iraq--in fact, the West caused all the woes of the world!

The fact that Sunnis & Shiites have been vilifying & killing each other for centuries,and only desisted because a strong man, Saddam, showed he could out kill anyone else, is immaterial.

It was naive of JW Bush to think that he could export democracy to such a society. I mean, it can be done ---a la Japan post WW2 -but not the way we are allowed to fight & administer these days, with both hands tied behind our backs.

A win-win solution would have been to have left Iraq to its own devices:
--Poriot would have had a win because she could have whined to the cows come home that we should have intervened, should have done something, anything!
--and, the rest of the world team would have had a win because all those billions of dollars could have been re-directed to the space program. Heck! We could be terraforming Mars & Venus by now –and in space you cannot hear Poirot whine!.

SPQR,

".....and in space you cannot hear Poirot whine!"

Don't be too sure of that!.

SPQR, there is actually not much that can be done for Arab populations
until they ban cousin marriage.
It is a custom that comes from their tribal background and was an
attempt to keep land within the family and tribe.
A good objective but any rural population should have known what
inbreeding does to a population, except perhaps they thought their
religion would protect them from its effects.

So next time you see something that causes you to say "Are they mad"
well perhaps you will understand that they really cannot help themselves.

Banjo,

This graph shows Egypt's total fertility rate (i.e., the average number of children per woman) since 1960

http://www.google.com.au/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&idim=country:EGY&dl=en&hl=en&q=egypt+fertility+rate+graph

Note that the fertility rate has come down, but is still much higher than the replacement level of 2.1. This graph shows the annual population growth rate over the same period

http://www.google.com.au/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_pop_grow&idim=country:EGY&dl=en&hl=en&q=egypt+population+growth+rate+graph

An average 2.5% population growth rate will give you a doubling time of 27.7 years. If you don't have a scientific calculator, an easy way to calculate approximate doubling time is to divide 70 by the population growth rate in percent.

To see what rate of increase is possible, consider Niger. From the CIA World Factbook, the total fertility rate is 7.6 children per woman, and the population growth rate is 3.643%, implying a doubling time of 19 years.

Divergence,
An interesting exercise is to plot population and oil
consumption against time. They track EXACTLY so it is no surprise that
Egypt's population was also exponential.

The west did not follow the curve, I suspect it had to do with
education and the ready availability of contraception from early time
in the cycle.
However the poorer countries made up for that.
There is a graph on the energy bulletin. I just found this one that
shows how much population growth is due to which fossil fuel.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48677

There are others available.
As depletion occurs and it now seems that no alternative energy is
going to make up the difference it seems inevitable that a large
"die off" is inevitable. The arithmetic seems overwhelming.

Bazz,

When you say "die off" you seem to imply that numbers in excess of a country's unsubsidized carrying capacity will perish. Which could in many cases be tens of millions--short of a total worldwide breakdown, I can't see it.The hue & cry will be we have to take them in as refugees and/or fund their upkeep for however long it takes.

Observation should tell you that every time there is a devastating flood, famine or fire. It's something of a standard now that it's rarely about overpopulation or bad governance. It's the result of past colonial overhangs or increasingly, AGW:

"Changes in the weather and climate used to be blamed on gods or demons, but no longer. If something nasty happens - meteorologically and climatically - in the developing world today, a cacophony of voices invariably insists it is the developed world's fault. Most delegates at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's (UNFCCC) seventeenth annual meeting of its Conference of the Parties (COP-17) in Durban, South Africa, agreed with this alleged causal connection."
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=13002

This is the real "Malthusian trap", the West will get to pick up the tab for other regions breeding habits.

SPQR, The points you raise probably require answers more researched
than I can give,
However there are a few fundamentals that are well known.
When I say die off I don't mean hundreds of millions I mean billions.

Not all on the one day of course, but certainly faster than the population rose.
The availability of oil will take a long time to get down to levels that it
will no longer be used for diesel and petrol. No doubt oil will be reserved
for food production, so the food depletion will be in track with oil depletion.
Further slowing will be enabled by people taking up farming, but there is a
limit to the amount of arible land.
The earth simply cannot support 7 billion sustance farmers.
The current food supply is the result of industrial farming.
Some say it is not sustainable anyway.

The United Nations has warned that food availabilty for UN programs
has run low and some programs cannot be supported.

It has been calculated that our energy intense food production uses
10 calories for every calorie of food produced.
However it has been the availability of cheap energy, almost entirely oil,
that has ebabled the feeding of 7 billion people.

An example of what may be in store for us as you no doubt have seen on TV.
The problems in the Horn of Africa are being made worse by regional
disputes over land and territory. Drought has made all their troubles
so much worse.
I really cannot see how we will get around this winding down.
Alternative energy in the magnitude of what is needed looks like being magic pudding stuff.

There is however a worry that systems people are warning about.
Complex systems don't normally collapse gently.
They start slowly winding down and then shortages in critical components start to occur.
This cascades and rapidly crashes the whole system.

Cont SPQR
Your earlier comment;
I can't see it.The hue & cry will be we have to take them in as
refugees and/or fund their upkeep for however long it takes.
>;>;>
Errr, this situation has to be considered permanent until the
population falls to a sustainable level that the earth can support.

Well, I just heard on SBS that 60% of Egypt's population is under 30.

If their own agriculture can support 20 million then 60 million will
either have to leave or work in tourism and import the food difference.
Another question, where would they get the food difference ?

Where will they go ? Europe is obvious but migration in those sort of
numbers, admitably, over some years together with the immigration from
other areas would descend into war almost immediately.
Is the illegal immigration we are seeing in Italy the start of it ?

Another possibility would be to go south into fertile Africa.

It is a bleak outlook, but that is what the maths tell you.

Sadly I have to agree with runners first post on this thread. Non PC as it may be, there were twelve wealthy and powerful famailies and the military running Egypt. Now there are eleven wealthy and powerful families and the military running Egypt. So some token "democracy" in the short term? 30 odd years of oppression, poverty and vengence to catch up on? And a non stop power play for the next few years.

Never take something away until you have a replacement and be careful what you wish for.

I wonder if the sons of the multi-billionaires in the middle east are in the armed forces & do similar to those two white Princes William & Harry such as flying missions.

Interesting thought individual,

Most military dictators around the globe were trained at Sandhurst or some such military academy. Start off as a Staff Sergeant or NCO, when you start the military coup you just upgrade your rank to say Colonel.

The sons of royal (benign dictatorships) likewise have officer rank and nice uniforms with lots of gold braid and “campaign paraphernalia” The main difference between these two groups and the British Princes seems to be one serves the military, the others serves “in” the military

Come to think of it, that Saudi prince who recently got his private A380 for $1 billion. He already has several Airbus & Boeing Aircraft. I wonder if he offers them to aid organisations to deliver food etc .
Some enlightenment would be appreciated re wealthy Arab benevolence.