Could some of you indigenous posters tell us your opinion on the possibility of Egyptian refugees eyeing up those shores ? What's your stance on the prospect of yet more boat arrivals ?

Sorry, individual, for temporarily diverting attention away from the gist of the original post. Sometimes I just can't help myself.

Much of what has been said since I last posted rings true to me.

For all his flaws, Mubarak did maintain a degree of stability in Egypt. In the months before he was thrown out, I was actually in the process of organising a move to Egypt for a couple of years - Egypt specifically because it was one of the safest options for work in the Arab world. Strangely, it was the 'liberation' of Egypt by its popular uprising, and the ousting of its 'evil dictator', that put a stop to that. In these situations, one can never tell if the outcome will be better or worse than the original situation.

As for the potential influx of illegal immigrants, I'm not really in a position to talk about that. Here in Townsville, we are somewhat detached from those issues. We're only just gaining our trickle of Sudanese immigrants, years after the larger cities down south got theirs; Arabs and the other 'usual suspects' are still remarkably scarce. As a result, while I can hold views about asylum seekers/illegal immigrants, those views are based on an abstract concept with very little real bearing on my life. Out of respect for those who actually have to deal with the matter, or have had their lives impacted by these people, I'll decline to comment lest I make an idiot of myself.

Otokonoko,

Sadly, instability does follow popular uprising.

Mostly people behave like sheep....like they did under Suharto and Marcos - like they still do under Mugabe.

I must say I'm fascinated by the plaudits being tossed by those here in Mubarak's direction because he managed "for so long" to pacify and subjugate the general population while simultaneously further impoverishing them.

Shame about your travel plans....

Aww, now you make me feel shallow! I guess what it comes down to is that my choice was easy. I chose not to go to Egypt. Had I gone, I would have been able to choose to leave, without abandoning my whole life.

The people of Egypt also have a choice, but it's not so easy. When my family decided leave Zimbabwe shortly after its 'liberation', we had to leave it all behind, pack a couple of suitcases and pretend we were going on a holiday. With the government censoring mail - especially 'official' mail from foreign countries - we arrived in NZ with blind faith that we'd be allowed to stay (NZ had a fairly relaxed immigration policy). All that my parents had worked for, their life savings, all they had grown up with and their friends and family stayed behind. That's not an easy choice.

Where this relates to the Arab Spring is that those who choose to ride out the storm can't be sure things will get better. Zimbabwe didn't. A key difference is that they are on the 'right' side and in the majority. We were remnants of a 'rogue state' and in the minority - we knew things wouldn't get better for us.

In the west, we can aid and support popular uprisings from afar, but I think we must focus on the 'popular' as much as the 'uprising'. If we get our hands dirty, we need to ensure that we are doing so in a way that helps to stabilise a country in a form that the people of that country can accept. A stable ship with unhappy passengers is no better than a turbulent ship with happy ones.

Your suggestions about Mubarak ring true, too. Many dictatorial regimes through time have enjoyed prosperity, safety and a facade of 'all being good'. I think it was Bryce Courtenay who noted that the cruellest regimes tend to have the best roads - thank Hitler for the Autobahn and Mussolini for the Autostrada. It's a difficult path to navigate between impoverished freedom and imprisoned prosperity.

This article from the Energy Bulletin explains some of the biophysical facts about Egypt.

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-02-10/egypts-warning-are-you-listening

The population has nearly tripled since 1960. Egypt imports 60% of its grain. In the past, Egypt used oil exports to pay for food imports, which were heavily subsidised for the consumer, but oil production there is now in serious decline.

To be sure, corruption has made the underlying problems worse, but it is likely that the unrest will continue, no matter who is in power or how honest they are. After all, the new government won't be able to bring dowm the price of food or find jobs for all the young people, any more than Mubarak could.

Otokonoko,

You are far from shallow, my friend.

Human behaviour is so contrary that it's almost impossible to pour forth a view on one subject without contradicting oneself regarding another (at least I find it so in my case)

According to Noam Chomsky...the biologist, Ernst Mayr, considered that perhaps homo sapiens sapiens were a kind of "biological error", "using their allotted 100,000 years to destroy themselves and, in the process, much else."

Makes you wonder.