Ok, now we open a topic on a whole new level, how exactly is the Middle East to function in this decade?

Let's look at what we have there now, shall we?

The developing situation is interesting, the Shi'ah control Syria, Lebanon, most of Iraq and are likely to end up disputing ground with the Taliban in Afghanistan (Greater Persia reached from Lebanon to Pakistan).

Now, the other interesting features are the rule of King Abdullah in Jordan, the potential oil wealth of Georgia/Azerbajain and the Kurdish peoples in the middle of it all, who now have massive oil wealth of their own, in Northern Iraq.

So what we have is the gradual joining together of the old Shi'ite enclaves, with several nations left in the middle, who will not, dare not, fall to the Shi'ah. At the same time, the Sunni Muslim majority (which has long been preoccupied with Israel), is waking up to the fact that they will soon be facing a Nuclear Persia, while only one Sunni nation to date has that capacity (and is perhaps too busy looking the other way).

The status quo, everyone against Israel and Israel alone in the Middle East cannot long survive enlightened self-interest by the Kurds, the Georgian's and even by Jordan itself (relations between the Bedouin and the Shi'ah have long been poisonous). The Kurd's need weapons, so do the Jordanian's, so too Georgia (and even Azerbaijan). There is a major realignment in process, Jordan too has been caught in the middle and must now choose sides.

Having written the same, I'm happy to argue it*

* Be aware, I am unwilling to even contemplate answering off-topic trolling by people who are determined merely to irritate.

Well hello Aaron.. brother of Moses :)

Your question is "how is the middle east to function?"

Answer..simple. Israel must assert it's sovereignty over the full West Bank, and Gaza also.

She should draw as many Jews from around the world as possible, to repopulate the 'valley of dry bones' (Ezekiel 37)

Gaza'ns and Westbank Arabs should be relocated to either Jordan or around the world in small groups.

Jerusalem will be re configured with increasing Jewish population, and any Arab resistance must be firmly squashed, and any 2nd offence individuals to be deported.

Jerusalem was.. is and always will be the eternal capital of Israel.

*fixed* (seriously)

I have no presumptions of predicting the future, especially since the inhabitants of the Middle-East are not reputed to act rationally.

The situation is that Iran today is akin to Nazi Germany in the 1930's and everything must be done to stop it. Iran must be isolated and this requires forsaking historical disputes and joining forces against the ultimate danger, not just to the ME, but to the whole world.

Specifically,

1. Continued and stronger economic sanctions against Iran.

2. Israel should make peace with Syria, at the cost of the Golan Heights, in order to remove Syria from the axis of evil. The peace treaty must clearly state that Syria must disengage from Iran and the Hezbollah.

3. A stronger and more effective UN-supported European force to enforce Security-Council resolution 1701 in Lebanon, eradicating Hezbollah and arresting any of its members found with arms. A further UN resolution to allow that force to pursue Hezbollah missile caches also beyond the Litani river.

4. Israel to accept the Saudi peace plan, putting behind the Palestinian conflict and becoming a strategic ally of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, all other Sunni countries, Turkey and former Soviet republics.

5. Strong missile-defence batteries to be deployed all around Iran's borders. All borders around Iran to be tightly closed. No ships to be allowed to leave Iranian ports before being thoroughly searched (to prevent nuclear bombs from being delivered by sea, then blown at Israeli/Saudi/European sea-ports).

6. Targeted assassinations of the most extreme Iranian leaders.

That's the only way to save the world, if only those parties could act rationally...

Yuyutsu, you as well as anyone must know that the Alawite al-Assad's (ie. Shi'ah sect) are not going to isolate Iran, they are supporting the Shi'ah in Southern Turkey and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The only realistic allies in the immediate region are King Abdullah II and the Kurds (who are also jammed in between the greater Persian Empire).

The difficulty that will come if the Palestinian's declare Statehood on the West-bank, is that based upon a real and perceived danger of them falling to Hamas/Hezbollah, Jordan is quite likely to invade (Jordan is at peace with Israel, the Hashemites will never be at peace with Shi'ah), having no desire to be bounded by enemies on 3 sides.

That said, there is much in favor of a pipeline to Haifa through Jordan from Kurdistan. Given the evil that is Iran and the likelihood that they will once again block the Arab/Persian Gulf, there are many who would be relieved to see such a development.

See the attached map (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/Kurdish-inhabited_area_by_CIA_%281992%29.jpg). Jordan is just at the base of that and the Northern Iraqi desert is all that lies between linking Kurdistan and Jordan. Also note the proximity of both Azerbaijan & Georgia to Kurdistan in the North. A pipeline to the Med, that bypassed Turkey, would be in everyone's best interest. What would be required? Jordan to step up to the plate and assume control over the Sunni North of Iraq up to Kurdistan.

The other major benefit of this, would be that the Kurds could be armed (and heavily), giving Iran war on three fronts - Iraq, Afghanistan & Kurdistan. Neither of the little Corporal's managed to survive that, I cannot imagine the Iranian's managing it either. By arming the Georgian's, the capacity remains to keep the resurgent bear at bay, thus keeping certain classes of weapons out of the hands of the Iranians (if you believe the Russian's, which I don't).

A single change to the map, basing it on ancient tribal boundaries, splitting the Sunni center of Iraq from the Kurdish North and the Shi'ah in the South, would provide a solid corridor for oil, trade and weapons right through the heart of the Shi'ah empire, from the Mediterranean to the Caspian. Quite frankly, if Turkey hadn't changed sides so rapidly, this wouldn't be a possibility, but the Kurds are being attacked on all sides, with not a single party thereto being a friend of Israel.

A heavily armed Kurdistan is Iran, Turkey & Syria's worst nightmare, whereas the Sunni in central Iraq would probably be a whole lot more comfortable under a Sunni regime (which is not the case at present).

Aaron.. arming Geoegia ? I hardly think the Russians will allow that.

When the Ottomans came rampaging toward Georgia back in the days..the Georgians called for Russian help...which was promised... but then at the critical moment it was withdrawn. The Georgians suffered.

The Rational of the Russians was that a weak Georgia was better than a strong one.

Re-alignment in the Middle east has been going on since Napoleon
..for those interested

http://napoleon1er.perso.neuf.fr/E-Napoleon-Jews.html