The Russian's are very aware of the fact that Georgia is close to Israel, if the Russian's continue to arm Syria, then Slavs can be removed from certain Georgian enclaves, whatever happens, happens in their own backyard. Turkey will not be thrilled to encounter heavily armed (and armoured) Kurd's, then again, maybe they should pick their allies a little better?

Iraq is going to split, the central Iraq area, including Tikrit, etc. is mainly Sunni, that is the reason for the continued violence between them and the Gov't. Iraq, as originally designed, was never governable without war crimes, Saddam & Co. didn't commit them all for fun. It can either fall into line with the Hashemite's (who as Bedouin, represent the bulk of the desert area) or make their own State (but where they'll get support from who knows? They'll need to defend themselves from Syria, Iran/Iraq, Jordan & the Kurds)...

The benefit of Jordan taking up the bulk of the area is that it would cut the supply lines for Hezbollah in Lebanon and could, potentially, see the al-Assad dynasty overthrown by the Sunni majority. After all, they have every bit as much blood on their hands as Saddam ever had.

Aaron,

There is no escape from forsaking old rivalries. Just as Israel should do its part, so does Turkey need to forsake its dispute with the Curds. Without Turkey the situation is hopeless because Iran could smuggle nuclear weapons through Turkey to Mediterranean ports.

The Palestinians are no serious threat. If they, once they receive their statehood, still come under Hamas rule, then not only Jordan, but Israel itself will re-invade, this time with Saudia's blessings. It will take just one day.

Russia will understand that Iran is as dangerous to itself as to the rest of Europe.

A large proportion of Iraqi Shiites belong to a different sect that does not support Iran.

The Alawite regime in Syria is opportunistic, it only cares about staying in power there and will happily change its allies if it serves that purpose.

An oil pipeline through Haifa is welcome as ever.

Hi Aaron, please give me your synopsis on how far you think the Ruskies would go to keep the caliphate at bay. Personally I think they are prepared to go a fair distance at max velocity when it eventually comes to it and that is the basis on which to prognosticate IMO.

I would like your ideas on that as well Mr Gore.

SOG.. I think you have all pretty much nailed it.

I've just taken the 'brute force' approach :) It has a remarkable record of actually working.

But all those competing factions you have all mentioned will inevitably become proxies for the wealthy west in it's competitive struggle for influence and resources... We can't see them as they are hidden.

Which is why I don't pontificate too much about them all.. I know history too well.

The Shi'ah in Iraq have little option but to go along with Al-Sadah, he has the power (power in the region, as ever, being based upon the number of armed follower's willing to join Allah ASAP) in the region, and seems brutal enough to be able to impose his will on the majority in Southern Iraq.

That currently still being contested in the Sunni heartland around Tikrit, etc. There is no feasible solution to the bloodshed than to split the two halves of Iraq along those lines. That means there would have to be a Sunni ruler, acceptable to the west, who could rule over not just the city dwellers, but also the vast areas of desert and the Bedouin therein. The only real options are either the Al-Saud's or the Hashemite's from Jordan. As the two houses have no love for each other, it would make little sense to appoint Al-Saud's to neighbour Jordan. So that leaves the Hashemite dynasty of Jordan, which has a long history with Central Iraq.

From Mosul north, give the Kurd's the homeland they need (and have waited centuries for), they have enough oil to be self-sufficient provided they have an outlet for the same. Turkey for reasons of a population explosion in the undeveloped areas (quite a lot of which is either claimed by the Kurds or the Shi'ah minority), has chosen it's partners for the dance. With the airfields in Kurdistan, Turkey is no longer a necessary evil in terms of NATO or even in the war on terror. If the Kurd's were armed sufficiently to see off the incursions/predations of the Turkish/Iranian/Syrian Armies (and the enemy of mine enemy is my friend), then the flow of oil should be safe. Jordan is one of Israel's better neighbour's, also one which has long had western military assistance & training. It would provide a powerful potential ally against encroachment from the South.

Such an idea would move the major battlegrounds of the next decade away from Israel's borders, while offering a potential solution to a lot of major problems, jobs, oil, etc.

Yuyutsu,

I honestly believe that except for a couple of areas of extreme significance, the Israeli Government would be best served by allowing Jordan to invade and retake the West-Bank. After all, the King has no reason to see any benefit (and a whole lot of threat considering they killed his Grandfather) from Palestinian terrorists. Jordan, while having achieved less than Israel with the same starting points, has achieved a hell of a lot more than the Palestinian Authority. Let the Palestinian's have their homeland, or to extend Jordan.

I cannot imagine how the Iranian's are going to smuggle Nuclear missiles through Turkey any more easily than they currently do through the Persian Gulf, especially if the Kurd's are armed well enough to carve a massive chunk out of the borders of both Iran and Turkey. If the Kurd's then choose to help the Azerbaijani's to reclaim their territory from the Armenians, who exactly will the Armenian's turn to for help? Turkey? Not likely. With the drying up of supplies from Iran via Syria, Hezbollah will be critically weakened (with no ground route & no air route, they would have to go via the Suez).

The Hashemite succession to the throne of Iraq, even a much shrunken Iraq, would see a strong line of support. The neighbouring kingdoms, Jordan & Iraq, both under Hashemite rule, have the greatest potential to quieten that region. On top of that, the Hashemite's are not great friends of the al-Assad's, of Turkey (or the al-Saud's), the al-Husseini clan or of anything to do with Shi'ah. While a long way from perfect, they are probably the pick of the bunch. They are also armed by the UK, with the Challenger 1 MBT & F16's, so the regime is obviously not on the axis-of-evil list.