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The Forum > General Discussion > Will this be a win for the Libs but a loss for Democracy.?

Will this be a win for the Libs but a loss for Democracy.?

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Contrary to the opinions of some on OLO I have little of no interest in which party wins this election as both are dysfunctional.

They both play manipulation games...do what it takes.

My concern is that the Liberals will win the most number of seats but won't win the most number of votes i.e. the minority of people will determine the govt.

I know the Libs will say that is the system but it is demonstrably un democratic.
If it comes about it will be a Queensland gerrymander.

If it goes the other way then I will remain equally unhappy.

I also make clear the election should sensibly go to the party with the most number of votes after factoring in all the preferential votes. Preferential voting IS the best system.
Posted by examinator, Wednesday, 18 August 2010 11:30:04 AM
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What about if you take into account the primary vote of the ALP vs the Libs? ie no coalition and no psuedo (greens) coalition.

Just like in tennis, you can win more points and lose the match.

One player can actually win 60% of the points and lose the match.

The moral is, you have to win when it matters.

Just like you have to win where it matters.

The rules of the game are known to all before play commences.

Life isn't fair, and only communists want to make it so.

Winners are Grinners.

To the victor go the spoils.

As always, and forever more.
Posted by Houellebecq, Wednesday, 18 August 2010 3:17:13 PM
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examinator,
Totally agree with you. But where do we make the electoral change and how. Australians are very suspicious of any constitutional changes or am i confused can this be achieved without a referendum.
If the Lib's are to win with more seats but not the popular vote it won't be the first time. Little John got back the first time that way. I do consider it an injustice as the pandering to an area like western sydney can win you an election. Broad band is a good example, you can give it to western sydney for next to nothing and win lots of votes but you can not give it to Woodanilling in Wilson Tuckey heart land unless you make a major infrastructure investment. The difference is population density or is it the density of the population.
Posted by nairbe, Wednesday, 18 August 2010 4:45:44 PM
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Examinator we just must live with the out come it would not be the first time an election has been won that way.
in my opinion your views say to me at least you should not complain you have made the choice not to be part of who ever wins.
Bigger things concern me this mornings Sydney Herald had an editorial by its finance editor.
It spoke very well of Labor and the GFC but must be seen as questioning voters understanding of issues.
IF Abbott won, he will not, you could make a mint in 12 months selling car stickers saying don't blame me I voted Labor, more popular for lier's but sell? like hot cakes think about it.
Posted by Belly, Wednesday, 18 August 2010 5:41:08 PM
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“this mornings Sydney Herald had an editorial by its finance editor.
It spoke very well of Labor”

Let’s be honest Belly, over many, many years and over many different administrations, the Sydney Morning Heralds finance editor has spoken well of Labor!
Posted by Horus, Wednesday, 18 August 2010 7:36:57 PM
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All I can say, is that it will be a win for some political party - and all parties in general, but as usual, a bloody great loss for the Australian people and their industries. Our industries - or what is left of them, will go down like like a battered and destroyed ship at sea, but the people who put it there - our politicians, all of them - will continue to take obscene salaries and perks which they have given to themselves, and give themselves a pat on the back and another rise for being part of destroying our economy. The politicians of all the countries in the world are similarly responsible for this "global economy" debacle. They should not be rewarded, they deserve to be put into a detention camp like any other enemy of Australia would receive.
Posted by merv09, Thursday, 19 August 2010 8:29:17 AM
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Houellebecq,

We disagree no big surprise there.
IMHO
- your sports analogy is fatally flawed in that sport is discretionary and hardly important...no principle there.

- First past the post is in the case of politics is Malthusian .
Preferential voting actually gives the public more say in how the country is run....More DEMOCRATIC not Communist or Socialist.

True it's a safety valve against the one party running amok.
Preferential, Proportional multi representative electorates is probably the best way.

There is no genuine reason why we as human need to ignore evolution and simply revert to Malthusian logic for all our institutions save human willful curmudgeonry by an ignorant rump.
Posted by examinator, Thursday, 19 August 2010 10:01:02 AM
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<< My concern is that the Liberals will win the most number of seats but won't win the most number of votes >>

Xammy I’m not sure this is all that important. We could have a system whereby the total number of votes after the allocation of preferences decides the winner rather than the number of seats. But then we could possibly have the situation whereby the government actually has fewer seats than the opposition, and therefore would lose every non-bipartisan vote in the parliament and would be effectively blocked from developing its policies. It would effectively be a minority government even more so than if it had a majority of seats but a minority total vote.

I think that the system of regional representation by way of electorates is more important than the total vote count.

But what is vastly more important than this is that a very large portion of the votes that will put the winning party in power will not be votes of support for that party. They will be votes lodged on the basis of whichever party the voter feels is slightly less repulsive or by voters who really don’t give a hoot about who wins and will make their decision based on the flimsiest of information! THIS is the really important thing here.

And the ‘stealing’ of votes that happens within the compulsory preferential system, whereby a person’s vote can very likely end up counting where they don’t want it to after the allocation of preferences is another very important issue.

<< Preferential voting IS the best system. >>

I would agree that preferential voting is better than first-past-the-post, but only if the preferences are the real preferences of the voter and not allocated by parties to one another, as is the case with above-the-line voting in the senate, or preferences that are not necessarily of the voters choice as is the case with the disgracefully undemocratic compulsory preferential voting system.
Posted by Ludwig, Thursday, 19 August 2010 11:41:34 AM
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How accurately do you think you could rate your favourite 84 films?

Are you really sure number 56 is better than number 57?

It's a farce.
Posted by Houellebecq, Thursday, 19 August 2010 2:47:10 PM
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Examinator, what is the difference between this elction and most others?

Rarley is any elected party voted into office with a majority, that's +50% of the voters, as they usually form office with the help of preference votes from minor parties.

I say again, what's the difference.

Now on the election outcome, I very much doubt the libs will win, but at the very least the 'increased majority slogan' should be dead and buried.

The frightening part is this.

The rud government won a landslide victory over the howard/costello government.

The Abbott government is weaker today than the howard/costello one which was defeated by rud.

Gillard dumped rud and provided us with what she called 'a stronger government'.

So, if the gillard government is stronger than the one that deafeated the stronger coalition, why then are they fighting to retain office from a depleted coalition?

Let me know if anyone can figure that one out.
Posted by rehctub, Thursday, 19 August 2010 7:21:04 PM
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Dear Examinator,

The Party that gets the majority of individual votes
should govern the country.

The electorate distribution has always been a failing
in a popular vote.

I'm a bit hesitant about preferential voting because
it always leaves an elected government in debt to
a minor party. I'm sure that the Greens have done a
deal with Labor for their preferential votes.
And we will get the same treatment from the Greens
as the Emissions Trading Scheme did on other
important future programs with which they may not
agree.

In some countries, elections are held with voting for
multiple parties followed by a run-off election of
the two top parties. We need to look at various
alternatives to the system we currently have.
Why do the Libs have to rely on the Nationals, can't
they stand up on their own merit?
It seems to have been a problem for decades.
What about those that want to vote for Libs but not for
Nationals?
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 19 August 2010 7:31:46 PM
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At the instant the polls close ,it may take a week to know,half our country will be saddened by the outcome.
It may well be me, my humble pie will Be very big if it is so.
Lets look at the massive change from just months ago, honestly.
6 months ago Rudd would have walked in a DD election, he still then wanted an ETS and had not thought about the great unwindable battle mining tax would bring.
Every share holder putting those shares in front of our country.
Star recruits, do most know Garrett was imposed on his branch? who saw the person who beat Beat Howard do anything after she won?
Unfair as it is to compare NSW ALP a sick dead beast with federal Labor voters are.
Bad as it is I have no other path, after thinking reviewing understanding I MUST vote and hope for a Labor win.
The half country that will be unhappy are Australians and victory will be good for the winner but I fear the real Abbott the inside running given to miners without fair taxation I fear for the short term future of our country.
Posted by Belly, Friday, 20 August 2010 6:24:18 AM
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I had intended to wait until after the election but this is an open letter to my ALP.
A Liberal could write much the same about his/her party but this is about mine.
Those running my party are intent on putting up better candidates, so much so they impose stars who always fail on us.
Branches largely are in the hands of groups, some climbing the ladder to self built castles in the air some there to vote so he/she who must be obeyed wins every vote.
I am bored by 70 year olds who vote on issues they never understand to keep the wrong people in charge.
Do not isolate unions but never be driven to put the wrong man in power ,the power of unions belongs to its members not them.
NSW thanks at least for isolating the NSW infection from Federal but look deeply at why you let this state, the one than won for Rudd suffer so much understand the last minute promises from the NSW mob are a waste this voter can not wait to get my revenge on NSW but wants victory tomorrow with an understanding you owe the members much.
Posted by Belly, Friday, 20 August 2010 6:44:18 AM
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If the ALP lose it may well be BECAUSE Julia decided to be seen with Keneally, promising the Epping-Parramatta line for the 6th time, when it actually isn't the most needed line for the area any more. She reinforced the link between NSW and Federal Labor many had made after the ousting of Rudd and the poor implementation of policy.

Then she stabbed Keneally in the back by slamming NSW Labor when she decided she had made a big mistake.

I actually feel for Keneally, used and abused by Gillard.
Posted by Houellebecq, Friday, 20 August 2010 9:09:54 AM
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Houellebecq,

re > difference between 57- 58 top 100 movies <
Simple, to me movies are discretionary ENTERTAINMENT and as such I don't have a top 100 (not important) and besides I look at genre and substance and circumstances of the time. All these externalities rend such an absolute judgement superficial and pointless.

Government is about life and other vital yet mundane issues.

Re JG using Keneally/ NSW the reason for Labor losing.
On what basis do you claim that? Sure the perceptions of the bumper sticker mentality will be a contributive factor. But on sheer numbers of seats that will possibly change hands surely Qld will be the decider.

Your reason fails given the Pork barreling Abbot did in one seat promising $1+ million for a noisy minority in a marginal for a car park (state & council issue). Tell me Abbot wasn't trying to stack a coming state election.... All this seriousness I could do with a laugh. Both are clear examples of why the party system is dysfunctional.
Posted by examinator, Friday, 20 August 2010 10:59:34 AM
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'All these externalities rend such an absolute judgement superficial and pointless.'

examinator, that's my point doofus.

political parties and even independents have more variables than movies have.

In the end you have to rate which areas of policy are more important, then work out which people support your views. Then at the level of even 1 policy area there are significant differences in the detail of even the smallest of areas. Then you have believability of promises, likelihood of getting stuff through the senate etc.

You've got to be kidding if you think movies would be harder. No doubt you are a 1 policy voter, or don't investigate the views of the minor parties and independents. You see most things in black or white so I suppose it's no problem for you.

'On what basis do you claim that?'
I claim that on the fact that QLD was already a problem, now she has exacerbated the problem in NSW to more dangerous levels meaning now she may lose enough seats to actually lose. You can see it by her desperation about NSW Labor now her tactic has backfired and she has bad mouthed NSW Labor. She must have had some dreadful internal polling the way she's acting.

If people weren't going to punish her for NSW Labor, they certainly are now. Her tactic has backfired big time.

Also, if they didn't already think she was a backstabbing biatch, after seeing the number she just did on Keneally, they certainly will do now.

It's not the pork barrelling that counts or that they'll lose more seats in QLD, it's the stupidity of thinking associating yourself with NSW Labor will not end in tears. Without the rail line tactic I think she had a much better chance. Polling today is suggesting this also.

PS: Your comprehension skills haven't improved.
Posted by Houellebecq, Friday, 20 August 2010 11:59:01 AM
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Ludwig, foxy others
re. Party preference deals
Given the current structure of the party system I think that an elector deciding to follow the party line is up to the individual (freedom of choice).
Notwithstanding I do think that this and HTV cards are perversions designed to manipulate and desensitising the public to question and suggest...."the omnipotence of the PARTY (sic)".
Belly makes the valid point that party policy/choice of representative are usually made by a minority of the least appropriate individuals in society.

Foxy's concern about the Greens et al in the senate is another consequential distortion of the current PARTY driven electoral system.
Run off elections would be expensive and simply focus on the two biggies.Back to Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber emphasising the need for a 'Keep the Bastards' honest party.
It is a misnomer to call our party system democratic.

Just for the sake of discussion One might suggest the following
No officially recognized parties or structures in parliament
Halve the number of electorates.
Each electorate is the same number of voters,
Two members each electorate.
No negative advertising or references to other parties.

each local candidate has policy topics the electorate ticks their policies that they agree with....verifying mandates.
The policies most number of ticks on a candidates ballot is then a potential impeachable contract for that member.
The advantage here is putting the policy priorities back to the people. Determining mandates and what can be traded off and what can't.
It would make members responsible to the public and would give differentiated policies.

put the emphasis on democracy and policy not parties,tactics engage the public.

if you are too dumb to fill out the form then you are too dumb to vote.
Posted by examinator, Friday, 20 August 2010 12:02:12 PM
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This tool is what I use.

You can start with a parties preferences, edit to your taste, print out and bring on the day.

https://www.belowtheline.org.au/nsw/

How anyone would on the day be able to accurately rank 84 candidates is beyond me. The site also has a link to the policies of each party or independent wiki page etc.

This information should by rights be on the aec site. I wonder why it is not.

There is no need for political advertising. It should be banned. They ban it for 3 days out, they can ban it for the whole month.

All each party needs is one broadsheet page with their policies including links to more detailed information.

Oh the money saved...

The playing field levelled...
Posted by Houellebecq, Friday, 20 August 2010 12:12:03 PM
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Dear Examinator,

I've just been watching Tony Abbott
on the news.

I don't know who you're going to be voting
for in this election but I simply can't
with a clear conscience see myself
voting for the LIbs, for Tony Abbott as PM,
and for a return to the nasty Howard era.

People keep saying what a close election this
is going to be - and for that reason alone -
I shall be voting a straight Labor ticket.
That may make me a "socialist leftie," in some
people's eyes (even though I don't know what
that means exactly), however, I have a conscience
for a reason - and with a clear conscience I can't
vote for a Party that gives nothing, promises
nothing, and does nothing, but damage to me, and my
family. I simply don't trust Tony Abbott and Co.,
and all the rhetoric and condemnation in their world
won't change my vote!
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 20 August 2010 8:47:41 PM
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Foxy luv,

You really need to start thinking out of the Linear x-y plain.

unless you live in their electorates you have no real say in who is PM.

Firstly being in a Lib seat what I vote in the 'house' is irrelevant I(we) are going to be represented (sic) by a self serving, party drone.

Hype aside either party is going prone to changing the party leader any way. I.e. so much for voting for JG or TA.

What is deliberately ignored by the Libs is that Rudd wasn't removed by faceless NSW power brokers per se rather by The labor caucus losing confidence in their leader. It is an absolute LIE for the conservatives to claim they are devoid of external power influencers (Party powerful contributors and or special interests the private sector). This is a near fatal flaw in the party system.

Even assuming the Libs get polls suggest that the Greens WILL hold the balance of power and therefore it would not be in THEIR strategic interest to allow the Libs to run amok i.e. Work choices.

I predict if they do get in the next budget will be an interesting and defining fight for the Greens.
Posted by examinator, Saturday, 21 August 2010 1:17:52 PM
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Dear Examinator,

I refuse to believe that my vote doesn't
count (can't help that). I am convinced
that if I vote for the Party of my choice,
it will make a difference as to whether
they get in or not, especially if the
election is as they predict, going to be
a close one.

Anyway, let's wait and see what tomorrow
brings. If Labor wins, as I predict,
you owe me a drink!
Posted by Foxy, Saturday, 21 August 2010 5:45:34 PM
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