For years we've been taught the theory [as fact] that we get our wet wet weather during an Eli Nino. The higher the southern oscillation index [SOI], the wetter it would be. Negative, & very negative SOIs ment a very low percentage chance of average or above average rainfall.

So what's gone wrong?

A couple of months ago we hear a new theory that our weather really comes from the Indian ocean. Well yes, I've seen lots of rain come to us from some WA cyclones, but not many.

Now we appear to be getting this lot from an ex cyclone from the gulf, that got lost, & went south, through the centre.

Less than a month ago we got a record of 200mm in 7 hours, & all this record rainfall, with a heavily negative SOI. Where did that come from?

It could be our meteorologists [& scientists] don't have a clue.

It could be they have had too little time in Oz to fully understand the place. What ever it is, it would be nice to know. I wonder if they have worked it out themselves?

Any chance of getting someone from the CSIRO, or the Bureau to give us an explanation of what they believe is going on?

Hasbeen

This would be like trying to ask an economist why they could not predict the latest downturn. They are only ever clever in retrospect despite the spin.

Hasbeen, runner
It has been explained. I guess you'll have to wait a while untill it comes out in a finger picture book. in the mean time look at the new NASA Climate site.

Hasbeen,
Exactly my thoughts when I saw this: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/fewer-cyclones-will-not-lower-insurance-premiums/story-e6frg6nf-1225835826727

Now, we are being told there’ll be “ a drop of up to 34 per cent in the number of tropical cyclones over the next 90 years”, DUE TO AGW.
Only a short time ago, we were being told there'd be an increase in cyclones, DUE TO AGW

There’s nothing better than playing- heads you lose, tails I win -& no one plays it better than the AGW spruikers..

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Check again in the next few days

I wonder, do you think climate change deniers put as little faith in their Doctors if they are very sick?
Lawyers if they are in trouble.
Financiers if they invest.
El Nina say we are told less rain La Nina more, climate change?
Have I understood it right? more rain in the tropics less in the south but spikes are always possible at any time, and condition.
Quaint however to see a few saying the experts would not have a clue, unless they agree with their views.