Here's the latest on the Swine flu. The situation is evolving rapidly, so if you want to post more links, go for it.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25398539-601,00.html

We're in the early stages right now, of what's being classed by the WHO as a level-4 pandemic risk. About 150 are dead so far in Mexico.

I'm more than a little worried by this one, to be honest, and this is coming from someone who generally thinks media scares are overstated.

The SARS and bird flu outbreaks didn't really scare me. In the case of bird flu, human to human transmissions didn't eventuate, certainly not by airborne means. I was always pretty optimistic that things weren't going to get out of hand.

This swine flu however, clearly is transmitted from person to person. What's more worrying is that it kills people in the prime of their life. Fortunately, children seem to have a natural resistance, which is the one piece of good news here.

Discuss:

1) What is the scale of this one going to be?
2) Is it containable?
3) Are you making an plans in relation to it?

The most successful viruses tend to be non-fatal. They evolve that way, as it assists their spread. In this case however, the potential for spread is massive. People don't die immediately, by the time symptoms are clearly displayed the virus is capable of transmission.

My guess is we're looking at deaths that will probably reach into the tens of thousands globally.
Perhaps into the hundreds of thousands, though I'm hoping it doesn't go that far or higher.
Mostly, they will be in poorer nations, but there will of course be fatalities elsewhere. We're not going to get out of this unscathed. Aside from the fatalities, we're looking at massive disruption to our society.

Update:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25399245-601,00.html

The World Health Organisation puts the threat level at Phase 4 on a scale of 1-6, indicating a “significant increase in risk of a pandemic.”

MEXICO: Epicentre of the current outbreak and only nation with confirmed swine flu deaths (20). Another 129 suspected deaths and 1,614 suspected infections

NATIONS WITH CONFIRMED INFECTIONS: Britain 2, Canada 6 (+10-12 suspected), Spain 1 (+26 suspected), United States 44

NATIONS WITH SUSPECTED INFECTIONS: Australia 17, Chile 8, Colombia 9, Denmark 5, France 1, Ireland 3, Israel 1, New Zealand 66, South Korea 1, Sweden 5, Switzerland 5

NATIONS WITH PARTIAL OR TOTAL BANS ON PORK IMPORTS: China, Indonesia, Lebanon, Russia, Thailand, Ukraine

A video with answers to basic FAQs.

http://player.video.news.com.au/theaustralian/#ho2xuSZmQV8NhOYGqMedCxGPesAJc1d9

OK, it's serious, and people are dying, but let's not panic just yet.
They're in the early stages of dealing with it, and they've got pretty good at it too, over time, so let's just take reasonable precautions and wait and see. If it's the "Horror" one, we'll know soon enough.

TRTL mate I think it is next to impossible to guess where this will go I read a few days back that the kill rate for swine flu in Mexico is 7% and the kill rate for the 1918-19 flu was 2.5%. The 1918-19 was known about for a number of months before it mutated into the more deadly form, so this swine flu could be around for months or even a year or two before it mutates into a more deadly form. But then again it maybe in that more deadly form now. Here is the link http://www.physorg.com/news159946708.html

There is no reason to panic now but if it is anything like the 1918-19 flu I would think the death toll globally will be in the hundreds of millions and it will cause TOTAL chaos in every country in the world like we have never seen before. Everything from pubs to airports and schools and shopping centers will have to be closed and will probably be closed for months. Lets hope this one just fizzles out.

Some helpful facts. http://www.physorg.com/news159861216.html

Y2K, Global warming, Bird flu, there is always some "authority" who wants to hear & see themselves on TV.

You're an OLO veteran, TRTL. You know there'll be more Hasbeens.

25% percent of posters will say it's alarmism. Another 25% will say it's god's will. Try not to get sidetracked!