So, the war on the Russian Steppes:

Things aren’t looking all that rosy for the Russians. Their military are all but stationary, unable, it seems, to push further into Ukraine. Indeed, in some areas they are being pushed back. But it’s all small movements on either side - minute advances by Russia, minute advances by Ukraine. Effectively the front lines are static. From the Russian side, these small advances are coming at an horrific cost with some estimates now putting the overall causality count at 1.5 million.

The real interest is behind the lines. Ukraine is now a world leader in drone technology and is using it to attack the Russian logistics. Crimea is all but cut off with large numbers of residents getting out while they can. Equally, the roads bringing up supplies to the front are now a kill zone and getting ammunition and supplies to the frontline troops is increasingly difficult (which largely explains the static frontline).

Even worse for Putin is that Ukraine is now able to hit almost any target in Russia, Moscow is regularly hit. St Petersburg as well, In the last few days Omsk, which is in Siberia and 2500 kms from Ukraine was hit. The eleven biggest oil refineries have been hit at some point, and fuel for the military and the general economy is problematic. Some estimates are that fuel production is down by 40%. Massive queues are forming at service stations as civilians struggle to get the petrol they need.

The issue is what will Putin do. He cannot simply call the war off – not if he wants to remain in power. So, he’ll presumably escalate by instituting a mass conscription programme to supply more cannon fodder for the failing frontline. Some reports are that some of his advisors are suggesting he go the nuclear bomb route. I doubt it but desperate men.....

Whatever happens, it’s a very different war than it was just two years ago. It’s increasingly possible that Ukraine will actually win this thing.

"It’s increasingly possible that Ukraine will actually win this thing."

- Dreaming.

No one wins a war. Russia will have to find a counter to Ukraine's drone attacks by year end else it will not be able to hold the territory it invaded.

Win is a subjective term. A win for Ukraine is simply fighting Russia to a standstill. There is no chance they'll recover Crimea but every chance, now, that they'll recover at least some of the Donbass provinces. Additionally by fighting Russia to a stalemate, they'll secure their border for a generation as Russia licks its wounds and tries to avoid becoming an international irrelevance and/or a mere satrapy of the Chinese.

Thereafter they will finally be admitted into NATO and possibly the EU as well as becoming a major player in the international arms market given their now world-leading drone technology. Who knows... they might even become a democracy!

"There is no chance they'll recover Crimea"

But that is what will happen if Russia does not find a counter to Ukrainian drones. Yes, Russia has glide bombs which continue to be the reason they can capture territory, but Ukraine now has drones tailored for the entire Russian war machine. I've heard that front line supplies are being cut by up to 70%. That's a big problem for Russia on its own.

"I've heard that front line supplies are being cut by up to 70%. That's a big problem for Russia on its own."

Yes I've seen similar numbers. And that explains why the war in the Donbass is going so badly for Putin. We also now have the US authorising Ukraine to get Patriot missiles which, given what we've seen in Israel will largely blunt the Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Although that'll take some time to come to fruition.

As to Crimea, there's a big difference between pushing an invading force out of your own territory, peopled by Ukrainians who desperately want to be out from under the Russian yoke, and retaking Crimea. Reclaiming the Donbass just means pushing the Russians out, but retaking Crimea requires putting actual boots on the ground and supplying them. I don't see it on the horizon and, watching his pronouncements, neither does Zelensky.