So, the war on the Russian Steppes:

Things aren’t looking all that rosy for the Russians. Their military are all but stationary, unable, it seems, to push further into Ukraine. Indeed, in some areas they are being pushed back. But it’s all small movements on either side - minute advances by Russia, minute advances by Ukraine. Effectively the front lines are static. From the Russian side, these small advances are coming at an horrific cost with some estimates now putting the overall causality count at 1.5 million.

The real interest is behind the lines. Ukraine is now a world leader in drone technology and is using it to attack the Russian logistics. Crimea is all but cut off with large numbers of residents getting out while they can. Equally, the roads bringing up supplies to the front are now a kill zone and getting ammunition and supplies to the frontline troops is increasingly difficult (which largely explains the static frontline).

Even worse for Putin is that Ukraine is now able to hit almost any target in Russia, Moscow is regularly hit. St Petersburg as well, In the last few days Omsk, which is in Siberia and 2500 kms from Ukraine was hit. The eleven biggest oil refineries have been hit at some point, and fuel for the military and the general economy is problematic. Some estimates are that fuel production is down by 40%. Massive queues are forming at service stations as civilians struggle to get the petrol they need.

The issue is what will Putin do. He cannot simply call the war off – not if he wants to remain in power. So, he’ll presumably escalate by instituting a mass conscription programme to supply more cannon fodder for the failing frontline. Some reports are that some of his advisors are suggesting he go the nuclear bomb route. I doubt it but desperate men.....

Whatever happens, it’s a very different war than it was just two years ago. It’s increasingly possible that Ukraine will actually win this thing.

"It’s increasingly possible that Ukraine will actually win this thing."

- Dreaming.

No one wins a war. Russia will have to find a counter to Ukraine's drone attacks by year end else it will not be able to hold the territory it invaded.

Win is a subjective term. A win for Ukraine is simply fighting Russia to a standstill. There is no chance they'll recover Crimea but every chance, now, that they'll recover at least some of the Donbass provinces. Additionally by fighting Russia to a stalemate, they'll secure their border for a generation as Russia licks its wounds and tries to avoid becoming an international irrelevance and/or a mere satrapy of the Chinese.

Thereafter they will finally be admitted into NATO and possibly the EU as well as becoming a major player in the international arms market given their now world-leading drone technology. Who knows... they might even become a democracy!

"There is no chance they'll recover Crimea"

But that is what will happen if Russia does not find a counter to Ukrainian drones. Yes, Russia has glide bombs which continue to be the reason they can capture territory, but Ukraine now has drones tailored for the entire Russian war machine. I've heard that front line supplies are being cut by up to 70%. That's a big problem for Russia on its own.

"I've heard that front line supplies are being cut by up to 70%. That's a big problem for Russia on its own."

Yes I've seen similar numbers. And that explains why the war in the Donbass is going so badly for Putin. We also now have the US authorising Ukraine to get Patriot missiles which, given what we've seen in Israel will largely blunt the Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Although that'll take some time to come to fruition.

As to Crimea, there's a big difference between pushing an invading force out of your own territory, peopled by Ukrainians who desperately want to be out from under the Russian yoke, and retaking Crimea. Reclaiming the Donbass just means pushing the Russians out, but retaking Crimea requires putting actual boots on the ground and supplying them. I don't see it on the horizon and, watching his pronouncements, neither does Zelensky.

nom nom nom

That's you mhaze
chowing down giant spoonfuls of bs
and then regurgitating it
bleh.. more plese

Do you understand Ukraine just lost Konstantinivka and Lyman and has issued evacuation orders for Kharkiv?
Ukraine is still in defense, and losing territory.

You're all acting like the NSW supporters waffling on about your dynasty when you only won 1 in a row.

And how many times do I have to tell you, US weapons are junk.

PATRIOT MISSILES FAIL MISERABLY, Here's the Video Evidence /MIT Prof Ted Postol
http://www.youtube.com/live/2owXYuVwC0k

Giving allies the plans for Patriot missiles is like giving away the formula for the Covid vaccine.
It'll cost the end user a lot of $ and won't defend against the problem.
Might even get your own people killed when they fail.

False hope that's all those stupid things are.
Put your hope in them and your whole country might get routed.
Like seriously, if you really WANT to lose, get Patriot missiles.

A lot of the stuff going on at the moment is politically motivated.
Iran War: US Paratroopers On Their Way /Robert Pape & Lt Col Daniel Davis
http://www.youtube.com/live/5pUOoaLSsZ8

" Ukraine just lost Konstantinivka and Lyman"

That's what the Russians claim. And like every one of their claims, you fall for it hook, line and sinker. Both those places remain in Ukrainian hands.

"has issued evacuation orders for Kharkiv"

False. they issued evacuation orders for some of the smaller villages in the Karkiv region, but only for women, child and other non-combatants. Unlike Russia, Ukraine seeks to protect its non-combatant civilians.

AC used to tell us confidently, based on all the Russian propaganda he fell for, that the fall of Odessa was immanent and that following the fall of Bakhmut, there'd be a general Russian breakout that would overrun Ukraine. You'd think that someone who was that wrong would be a bit more circumspect about what rubbish he falls for. But AC just carries on regardless, certain that, even though every other piece of Russian agitprop that he's fallen for turned out to be wrong, the next piece will be completely true.

Meanwhile, the Russian shadow fleet in the Black Sea is taking a pounding and Russian oil supplies are open season for Ukraine's drones.

Russian shadow fleet 'in the Sea of Azov'
Russias been making plenty more money since Trumps war in Iran.
And the Europeans, they're still trying to blame someone for Nordstream, when Nordsteam 1 has always been available.
They just sanctioned themselves and their manufacturers all moved to China to keep the cheap Russian energy, otherwise they would go bust.

What has Trump even achieved actually?

Hi AC,

Yes, Russia has a large force in Ukraine, but they cannot currently counter the drones and are losing over 10,000 troops a month. Such losses quickly become critical, which is why there is talk of another mobilisation as well as footage of Russian recruitment officers manhandling recruits into vans.

mhaze,

It probably makes more sense for Crimea to be a headache for Russia at present. Things will get easier for Ukraine and harder for Russia if the status quo is maintained.

This conflict has been going long enough now to be as boring as batshite. There are all sorts of reasons preached as to why Australia should be interested in a conflict on the other side of the world - particularly when other European countries are not taking much notice. But they are just excuses to take our minds of our own region: the threat from China; the circumnavigation of China's warships; Chines aggression towards our aircraft, and the latest Chinese warning, a missile fired into our region that nobody wants to talk about.

Eff Ukraine and all foreign skirmishes, including Iran, which has affected Australia in no way like the scaremongers said it would.

Eff Albanese's "defence" pacts with tinpot Pacific Islands. All they mean is Australia looking after Islands, of which only three have minute standing armies. Oh, its to stop China getting a foothold near us. Bullsh.t. China doesn't need to get close when it has missiles capable of travelling 5,000 kilometres.

Australia's only defence measures should be more money spent, more defensive weapons, and shutters up against a world that doesn't give a stuff about us.

ttbn,

What Ukraine has demonstrated is that air defence and drone capability are critical, yet Australia has little capability with either.

If you don't want invaders you need nukes. The Greens at least supported the development of nukes, but I think that was only for authoritarian countries like Iran.

"Yes, Russia has a large force in Ukraine, but they cannot currently counter the drones and are losing over 10,000 troops a month."
- They're having mixed success, sometimes Russia takes the majority of the long range drones down, sometimes not.
Right now elections are coming in both the US and Russia, they are trying to embarrass Putin to try to cost him electoral support.
After the election Russia might say no more SMO, total war and there might be a huge mobilisation and Ukraine is going to get trampled on.

Likewise Iran is playing the same political embarrassment game with Trump.
Trumps probably going to get himself assassinated by the Zionists, who will blame Iran and get America back into the war Israel's wanted for decades.

U.S. OFFICIALS: ISRAEL'S TRUMP PLOT INTEL MAY BE PUSH FOR MORE WAR - Alex Jones
http://www.youtube.com/live/Y217nWLZdyc

Russia no longer believes West wants Ukraine peace talks – Lavrov
Moscow’s goodwill toward Western-backed negotiations has been exhausted, the foreign minister says
http://www.rt.com/news/642822-russia-west-no-goodwill-talks/

A lot of what you hear is bs to manipulate you.
They want you to think Ukraine is winning, and that's why they won't admit losing Konstantinivka and Lyman, because it ruins that bs narrative, the collective west are just using Ukrainians as cannon fodder to try to hurt Russia and the Ukrainians are waking up.

Violent Mobilization Clash in Lviv Sparks Official Backlash
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/79920

>>A confrontation between Ukrainian military recruitment officers and local residents erupted in Lviv’s Sykhiv district on Tuesday evening, prompting investigations by regional authorities and condemnation from senior Ukrainian officials.
Videos circulating on social media showed dozens of people surrounding a Territorial Recruitment Center (TRC) vehicle, chanting “Shame,” while the vehicle appeared to have damaged tires and a torn-off front bumper.
Participants in the protest claimed TRC officers had attempted to detain two men.
One was allegedly taken to a recruitment center, with demonstrators preventing officers from taking the second man away. Protesters demanded the release of the detained man and called on Ukrainian authorities to address similar incidents involving mobilization.<<

"Eff Ukraine and all foreign skirmishes, including Iran, which has affected Australia in no way like the scaremongers said it would."
- The crisis has not been averted - it's still coming.
SPR down to 313 million barrels.
The US air campaign failed to remove the Iranian government.
The US blockade did not achieve any results and failed as well.
US more or less kicked out of the gulf.

And the U.S. was writing cheques it cant cash with the MOU but I'm sure Iran wanted the sanctions relief.
Trump doesn't seem to have control over Israel to force them to leave southern Lebanon which was in the deal, and they are trying to claim a right to traverse the Strait when they did not win the war and Iran retains control over the strait.
Now the hardliners in Iran are proven right again.
If I was Iran, I'd be building a nuke, if I hadn't done so already.
It's not going to end until one wipes out the other.

The truth is Israel can't tolerate ANY even semi-strong nations around it and plans to wipe out all of them.
Their longer term plans don't end in Iran.
Removing Trump and Netanyahu won't change these long term plans
http://www.youtube.com/shorts/kaOWgujCHtA

Oh and ttbn
I hate to bring you the bad news...

>>China's longest-range missile is the DF-41 (Dongfeng-41), a road-mobile, solid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) operated by the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force. Introduced into service, it boasts an operational range of 12,000 to 15,000 kilometers and is capable of carrying up to 10 multiple independently-targetable warheads (MIRVs).While land-based ICBMs like the DF-41 provide maximum reach, China also maintains a formidable arsenal of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). For example, a recent high-profile test saw a Chinese nuclear-powered submarine launch an ICBM deep into the South Pacific, demonstrating the rapid growth of their nuclear triad US leads concern after China fired a long-range missile into Pacific ocean.

A Dongfeng-41 (DF-41) intercontinental ballistic missile, traveling at its maximum speed of Mach 25 (~31,400 km/h), would take approximately 15 to 20 minutes to reach Australia from mainland China.
Exact flight times depend on the specific launch location, the trajectory used, and the target city in Australia:

Flight Speed: The DF-41 travels at roughly 8,660 meters per second, or nearly 31,425 km/h.

Distance: Beijing to Canberra is about 9,000 km, while the distance from China's southern coast to northern Australia is significantly shorter.

Operational Range: The CSIS Missile Threat project lists its range between 12,000 and 15,000 km.<<

"China doesn't need to get close when it has missiles capable of travelling 5,000 kilometres."
- Their land based nuclear missiles can already wipe Canberra and all our state capital cities off the map in about 20 minutes.
(And no western air defence missile is going to intercept them)

Fester,

Yes. Ukraine has demonstrated what can be done against a bullying country like Russia, and good luck to them. But it is of no interest or use to us because we are shockingingly unable or unwilling to defend our country. The Albanese government is a disgrace, and the only fighting the Coalition is capable of is among themselves, and against One Nation, their only hope to help them redeem themselves.

Labor still has every chance of a third term - despite the apparent upsurge of One Nation (polls and actual elections often don't correlate as history shows), and we will still be unprepared to face our own bullying country in our own region. So, l still say, lets talk about our own situation, not about a country that is of no importance to us.

AC is fond of unresearched claims about how bad the US military is. Remember, this is the same bloke who told us that there was no way the US could bomb the Iranian nuke facilities....one day before the US bombed the Iranian nuke facilities. He then told us that the attack was so inept that even bloggers were able to track it right across Europe, only to find out that the actual attack was launched from the east and the thing that was being tracked was a decoy. He's also the bloke who told us that the Israeli airforce were forced to turn back from the Iranian border in fear only to admit a day later that not only did they not turn back but that they had bombed Tehran.

This is quite apart from all the erroneous claims and false predictions he made regarding the war on the Russian Steppes.

AC's military understanding is hopeless. He just believes whatever the most recent dill told him, even if that's different to what the previous dill told him.

As to Russia....

Fuel is now such a problem in Russia following the drone strikes that Russia has now banned all diesel exports. Can a full oil export ban be far away?
Another attack on Moscow overnight.
Disputes are breaking out all over Russia as people fight to beat the petrol shortages. One report has people queueing for 8 hours to get 20 litres of petrol.

More oil tankers hit overnight. They are now also using unmanned boats as well as drones. Up to 34 tankers have been hit in the last month.

Things are going so badly for Putin that Belarus's support for the Russian war effort is wavering.

45 tankers in the Sea of Azoz.

TOTAL WAR / 45 Azov Tankers Destroyed / Kiev Fuel Crisis Begins / Ground War Intensifies/ 10.07.2026
http://youtu.be/az83XTvHnc4?si=PUTPnw6aMapx1-F-

Trumps the biggest criminal the WH ever had.
http://www.youtube.com/shorts/jyabP8Lf5t8

Zaluzhnyi: Assuming Russia has lost the war is a 'dangerous misreading'
http://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-assuming-russia-has-lost-the-war-is-a-dangerous-misreading/

Hi AC,

The question is not whether Russia has military capability, but whether it is prepared to keep copping the losses. Another 28 ships in the sea of Azov yesterday. All the attacks on refineries, ports shipping, factories, trains etc would stop immediately were Russia to cease its invasion and withdraw.

The latest reported troop losses for Russia were about 1500, around 700 more than they recruit daily. Not being able to counter Ukrainian drones is a serious problem for Russia.

Well, they're only taking more oil off the market, and soon that will be an issue. Apparently they couldn't take these smaller river barge oil tankers ships back up the river, and they didn't want to take them under the Crimean bridge in case one was attacked whilst directly under the bridge.

"All the attacks on refineries, ports shipping, factories, trains etc would stop immediately were Russia to cease its invasion and withdraw."

Bombing a country doesn't make them submit, it hardens their resolve.
Putins facing significant criticism for not attacking them with greater force.
And these attacks play into the hands of hardliners.

Hi AC

"Bombing a country doesn't make them submit, it hardens their resolve."

Putin is pushing that line with the increasing number of vocal critics, and propaganda works as it always does, but this video of Konstantinivka shows that reality isn't changed by resolve and propaganda.

https://youtu.be/UhGG5jNBwpw?si=MlcrZLMGc8QJQ4wp

Like Monty Python's Black Knight, it's all about the actual threat, not the resolve or propaganda. If Russia doesn't come up with something to counter Ukrainian drones soon, they will face a very miserable winter. The Russian Army is calling for a ceasefire in Konstantinivka on humanitarian grounds. They wouldn't be doing that unless their forces were getting slaughtered.

Another problem from the Ukrainian drones is the damage they are doing to Russian radar and air defence. A direct result is that aircraft carrying glide bombs are at risk. Glide bomb attacks are now a fraction of what they were.

It has been revealed that the American Senator Lindsay Graham, who died on the 11th. July, was working on a Bill called the ‘Sanctioning Russia Act’. The Bill is predicted to pass, and it could have an impact on the Russia/Ukraine war, but also a significant impact on Australia's economy and fuel supply.

The Bill is designed to force Russia to “run out of strength by attacking its primary source of income: petroleum”.

It would pressure Russia and its economic allies (such as India) by closing loopholes that allowed countries like Australia “to play dumb when it comes to on-sold Russian oil”.

Australia has imported significant volumes of Russian oil products third-hand via India; the government, aware of the loophole, chose to leave us dependent on Asia, rather than “re-negotiating with America and South America”.

While not aimed at Australia itself, we will cop the knock on effect - meaning India stops buying from Russia, so less exports to Australia: India keeps more for itself; or, we get more price hikes.

If we complain, the U.S might think that Albanese was happy to “fuel the Russian war machine”, while supporting Ukraine publicly.

Lots of stuff seems to be catching up with the Albanese government; and it puts a different perspective on the war, for me anyway.

(Source: Alexandra Marshall, ‘Before Lindsay Graham Died’)

And it continues....

More vessels in Azov taken out. The Russians have now 'temporarily' closed the Kerch Straits which means gigantic amounts of revenue earning oil and grain are locked up and not earning revenue. Additionally an oil storage in Sevastopol was hit overnight causing a massive fire. Life in Crimea is becoming unbearable to the extent that the Russian government is now offering financial aid to the Crimea tourist industry because the tourists are fleeing and/or not coming. It is said that the only reason Kiev hasn't taken out the Kerch bridge is that they want the civilians to flee.

Meanwhile, petrol and diesel are becoming increasing scarce in Russia itself with prices rising and massive queues forming. Social media is filled with video of fights breaking out in the queues as people fight over scarce fuel.

From Hemingway's 'The Sun Also Rises'....
"How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked.
"Two ways," Mike said. "Gradually and then suddenly."

How did you lose the war.....

$400 US for a tank of petrol in Crimea of late, and more expensive in parts of Russia.

What a mess!

Russia KNOCKED OUT Ukraine From Kostiantynivka
http://youtu.be/AdoO1GQ2oqc

Heres some good footage of Ukrainian drone strikes!
http://youtu.be/VJcnuZB4Xt4

Oh, and btw, I'm open to the idea that Lindsay Graham might have gotten himself blown up whilst visiting a drone factory in Ukraine.

"I'm open to the idea that Lindsay Graham might have gotten himself blown up...."

Of course you are.

There's is no way he was killed in a drone attack. We all know he was assassinated by the Klingon Empire in cahoots with Dr. Zachary Smith, B.Sc. (Hons.), Ph.D..

Hi AC,

Konstantinivka has not fallen yet, but there is acceptance that it will fall eventually. What I am interested to see is how the Russian forces fare through winter. Summer has been the time of big Russian gains, yet they have lost ground the past few months.

How will all those front line troops survive winter cold, hungry and without supplies?

"I'm open to the idea that Lindsay Graham might have gotten himself blown up...."

Discussed in first part video below.
http://www.youtube.com/live/PCLgmfnDo8E

This Doesn’t Add Up About Ukraine War Casualties…
http://youtu.be/r2hkJ6MQoNM

Hi Fester,
Here's what my Ukraine war map commentary says:
http://youtu.be/wGoDbc65w_I

Hi AC,

I tend to use ISW. You might also note that Ukraine decommissioned a few hundred artillery pieces over a few days, and the attacks on logistics have forced Russia to withdraw some drone units from the front line.

Ukraine's biggest problem at present seems to be all the infighting. Not being able to coordinate their forces is not good, but dis-coordinated as they are, Russian forces are suffering.

I have always thought that the best tactic to defeat the Russians
would be, after cutting oil off as they have done, would be to
not attack the power plants but the switch yards associated
with them. Hit the transformers, and they may have a couple of
spares, but they won't last long.
Those sort of transformers do not grow on trees.
It would take many months to replace them and the economy would
totally collapse, no petrol, no diesel, no electricity:
Then as a result no food !
No wartime economy could survive that !

Hi Fester,
Whilst Ukrainians are debating whether or not Konstantinivka is lost, the battle for the others is fast approaching.
http://youtu.be/cEFF4oAQOGU?si=sYliftsxtUgZZt8g
The whole videos worth watching

Things on the Ukrainian front aren't going as well as claimed
http://www.youtube.com/live/ygTyrtOLjFc?t=2355

Attacks on Russian refineries are headline grabbers 'don't give up, now were really hurting them'

But it's not as serious as claimed.
They target a refinery owned by say Rosneft, then when it's hit they run to publicise the 'crisis' 'Huge delays for Russian fuel' 'Fights breaking out at gas stations!'... and someones on the phone calling Lukoil saying do you have excess capacity we need to get some fuel transported over to this location, and a day later the petrol station has fuel again. Then the refineries repaired and up and running again shortly after.

Hi AC,

" But it's not as serious as claimed."

I agree. If Ukraine were doing as well as they claimed there would be no Russian Army south of Mariupol. Oil refineries are vulnerable, but a 25 to 40 percent cut in fuel production is significant.

Ukraine is hitting many more targets far from the front these days.

Hell. This post has been around for two weeks. The Russia/Ukraine war has been going on for over 4 years.

You people who have never started a thread of your own are boring.

Anyone still rabbiting on about people they don't know killing each other thousands of kilometres away is ridiculous.

I think Russia is facing up to the fact that it's at war with NATO counties, and that there's no reasoning with the West.

Should Australia cut military ties with the U.S. if section 219 passes tomorrow?

How Section 219, the US-Israel Military Merger, Would Thwart American Democracy
http://www.commondreams.org/opinion/us-israel-military-merger

'The merger would connect the US and Israeli militaries in unprecedented ways and make it exceedingly difficult for any future president to unwind this partnership with a foreign government, no matter what public opinion says.'

Google? 'If 219 passes should australia stop working with US military'

Whether Australia should sever its military alliance with the United States if Section 219 (or similar provisions regarding US-Israel defense integration) of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) passes is a complex geopolitical question. Foreign policy experts hold diverse perspectives on the issue.
Proponents argue that Australia should consider scaling back joint operations if US policies risk drawing the Australian Defence Force (ADF) into regional conflicts they did not endorse. On the other hand, defenders of the alliance stress that Australia's national security relies heavily on the US partnership and that integration is vital for acquiring advanced defense capabilities, such as those promised under the AUKUS Agreement.

It's time to part ways.
And also with the Union Jack too.

Thomas Massie on Why The Epstein Files Are STILL Being Hidden and Israel Merging with US Military
http://youtu.be/mcoi2RPMBqY