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The Forum > General Discussion > Managing China's decline

Managing China's decline

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In China a mixture of heavy-handed covid restrictions, government meddling in the private sector, the collapse of the housing market bubble and the huge bankruptcies of developers, the mountain of government and household debt, the youth unemployment crisis, fleeing foreign investment, and the rapidly ageing population has led to an economic crisis without any clear solutions.

Since the start of the Covid pandemic, China's economy has been a slow-motion train smash. But, until a year ago, the problems in China had little effect on the rest of the world, but now Chinese exports and imports are shrinking and companies that relied on exports to China are suffering. Meat and dairy prices have fallen, and the appetite for expensive Western goods is fading and worsening an already global slowdown.

The message is clear. If you rely on selling your products to China, you need to start looking elsewhere.
Posted by shadowminister, Monday, 11 December 2023 1:52:25 AM
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Yes indeed. Our reliance on China for just about everything is going to be a real problem; as is the question of, will its decline make China pull its head in, or will it become even more aggressive.
Posted by ttbn, Monday, 11 December 2023 7:41:21 AM
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The old adage: "Lie down with dogs, wake up with fleas." applies. Similarly, the old Chinese saying: "If you open a window to let in breeze, a few bugs will fly in." Let's hope everyone has a good supply of Mortein over the coming years. The dragon has awakened and we, the Western nations, are not nearly ready for coming events. Save the Chinese populace rising and insisting en masse that democracy replace their current government, Australia will become known as New South Guandong. The promised AUKUS nuclear canoes and missile shield will arrive far too late to quell the dragons breath.
Posted by Albie Manton in Darwin, Monday, 11 December 2023 3:56:24 PM
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Albie,

China's population is shrinking and ageing. In 20 years, the working-age population will have reduced hugely, and those who retired will have at least doubled.

The dragon is rotting from the head.
Posted by shadowminister, Tuesday, 12 December 2023 9:59:38 AM
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" the working-age population will have reduced hugely, and those who retired will have at least doubled"
Are you sure you're not talking about Australia?
Posted by Special Delivery, Tuesday, 12 December 2023 1:36:37 PM
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Are you sure you're not talking about Australia?
Special Delivery,
This happening everywhere but the numbers of the retired are not the real problem. The problem are the many highly paid in non-revenue producing sectors. As the manufacturing & in fact all brick & mortar industries are contracting less revenue is generated. For far too many years now the focus was on academic qualifications instead of industry. The former are indisputably a drain on revenue & can not continue much longer. Revenue must come from profit not from excessive charges & fees !
Posted by Indyvidual, Tuesday, 12 December 2023 1:56:23 PM
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