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The Forum > General Discussion > Managing China's decline

Managing China's decline

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In China a mixture of heavy-handed covid restrictions, government meddling in the private sector, the collapse of the housing market bubble and the huge bankruptcies of developers, the mountain of government and household debt, the youth unemployment crisis, fleeing foreign investment, and the rapidly ageing population has led to an economic crisis without any clear solutions.

Since the start of the Covid pandemic, China's economy has been a slow-motion train smash. But, until a year ago, the problems in China had little effect on the rest of the world, but now Chinese exports and imports are shrinking and companies that relied on exports to China are suffering. Meat and dairy prices have fallen, and the appetite for expensive Western goods is fading and worsening an already global slowdown.

The message is clear. If you rely on selling your products to China, you need to start looking elsewhere.
Posted by shadowminister, Monday, 11 December 2023 1:52:25 AM
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Yes indeed. Our reliance on China for just about everything is going to be a real problem; as is the question of, will its decline make China pull its head in, or will it become even more aggressive.
Posted by ttbn, Monday, 11 December 2023 7:41:21 AM
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The old adage: "Lie down with dogs, wake up with fleas." applies. Similarly, the old Chinese saying: "If you open a window to let in breeze, a few bugs will fly in." Let's hope everyone has a good supply of Mortein over the coming years. The dragon has awakened and we, the Western nations, are not nearly ready for coming events. Save the Chinese populace rising and insisting en masse that democracy replace their current government, Australia will become known as New South Guandong. The promised AUKUS nuclear canoes and missile shield will arrive far too late to quell the dragons breath.
Posted by Albie Manton in Darwin, Monday, 11 December 2023 3:56:24 PM
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Albie,

China's population is shrinking and ageing. In 20 years, the working-age population will have reduced hugely, and those who retired will have at least doubled.

The dragon is rotting from the head.
Posted by shadowminister, Tuesday, 12 December 2023 9:59:38 AM
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" the working-age population will have reduced hugely, and those who retired will have at least doubled"
Are you sure you're not talking about Australia?
Posted by Special Delivery, Tuesday, 12 December 2023 1:36:37 PM
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Are you sure you're not talking about Australia?
Special Delivery,
This happening everywhere but the numbers of the retired are not the real problem. The problem are the many highly paid in non-revenue producing sectors. As the manufacturing & in fact all brick & mortar industries are contracting less revenue is generated. For far too many years now the focus was on academic qualifications instead of industry. The former are indisputably a drain on revenue & can not continue much longer. Revenue must come from profit not from excessive charges & fees !
Posted by Indyvidual, Tuesday, 12 December 2023 1:56:23 PM
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I don't think you understand manufacturing.
Manufacturing is a socially evolving process built up over time which regenerates itself through continuity over decades through development and teaching.
When you discard that ability in search of momentary profit you are effectively throwing away decades of evolution. and with it to exercise self determination.
You don't pick up a manufacturing base just because you have an epiphany.
China's manufacturing capacity didn't just appear overnight but Australia's discarding of it's own potential did.
Australia literally threw away it's ability for a few dollars more
The Chinese are now manufacturing the advanced machinery that allows other countries, including Australia, to establish or re establish their manufacturing bases.
And more power to them because they earned it whilst we just threw it away because the shareholders wanted a greater return on their shares
Australia's companies are long gone, never to be seen for at least 60 years even if it were to make a concerted effort today.
The Chinese took nothing, we begged them to take it so please spare me as to how the Chinese took it.
The Chinese goods imported into Australia today are not the best that China is capable of.
They are less than, but are the most profitable to the Australian importers and retailers because the majority of Australians have no discernment or understanding of quality.
So if you want to bitch about Chinese poor quality blame the importers and their method of selection.
Bunnings, and the like are about profit, so it's buyer beware.
I don't see Apple complaining of poor quality.
Posted by Special Delivery, Tuesday, 12 December 2023 2:51:22 PM
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so please spare me as to how the Chinese took it.
Special Delivery,
Where did I imply that ? You’re starting to sound like Paul1405. What I did imply is that the quick buck mentality & the mentality that educated people are automatically the answer when in fact the majority of them are of no use. I don’t waver from my view that actual producing of necessary commodities is what keeps an economy going not mere fanciful, utterly ineffectual pointless rhetoric by some educated expert. It’s those educated whose thinking results in actual products & services that are valuable but not those intellectuals full of self importance.
As I have stated countless times too many non achievers are getting paid way too much of peoples’ Tax Dollars which has created the imbalance that is now a huge threat to every economy including China’s.
Posted by Indyvidual, Tuesday, 12 December 2023 7:55:40 PM
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Indyvidual,

You make such sweeping statements without substance, that invite all to question your purpose, other than to bleat the obvious and apportion blame to whoever suits.
Money, and those that want more of it than they need, is responsible, not intellectuals as a collective.
You seem to think that an education has no place of value in your fixated little world
The common Australian perception of the middle classes, and lower, is that China took away their livelihood.
I don't recall having said that you stated it but it didn't prevent you to insinuate yourself into the frame.
So since you mention 'non achievers' how is a non achiever identified in your world.
I'm sure those on this forum would like to know.
Posted by Special Delivery, Wednesday, 13 December 2023 2:24:08 PM
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how is a non achiever identified in your world

Special Delivery,
To me the non achievers are generally found in bureaucrat circles & by that I mean people on generous salaries & benefits who by not doing what they were engaged for, cause much harm to society. Those who due to lack of merit & poor mentality maggot off the Taxpayers by bleating for funding with the help of the bureaucrats to whom integrity is a foreign word as is the notion of decency.
I find it impossible to define a successful person but I think someone who can make a living from something they enjoy & through merit. Definitely & generally not from funding from the Govt coffers courtesy of indifferent bureaucrats.
Posted by Indyvidual, Wednesday, 13 December 2023 4:55:50 PM
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You seem to think that an education has no place of value in your fixated little world.
Special Delivery,
When did I ever say that . Education is vital, without it we’d be going backwards at the same rate as we would under purely intellectual rule. Do not even try to put intellectual thinkers into the same category as educated common sense people. The latter aren’t the ones that gave us political correctness, dysfunctional authority & nonsensical social reforms. No Sir, all that crap is heaped upon us by intellectuals devoid of sense. That is not education, that’s downright sabotage of society. Not just here, even China except that Chinese people have thousands of years of culture which will end up being their safety net. Wester society has enjoyed so much individual freedom that it resulted in collective decline in every way but without a cultural safety net.
Posted by Indyvidual, Friday, 15 December 2023 8:01:55 PM
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One of the major costs in manufacturing is labour costs. That is why manufacturing has been moving to countries that pay low wages. China's wages have been increasing forcing much of the manufacturing to move to India, Vietnam etc.
Posted by shadowminister, Sunday, 17 December 2023 5:46:59 AM
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Hi Albie Manton in Darwin

"Save the Chinese populace rising and insisting en masse that democracy replace their current government, Australia will become known as New South Guandong."

That won't be the immigrants fault that will be our governments fault.

shadowminister
"One of the major costs in manufacturing is labour costs. That is why manufacturing has been moving to countries that pay low wages."

Capitalists will always be in competition with other capitalists.
'If my company doesn't manufacture and import from China my rival competitor will, and I'll go out of business.'
The government makes the policies, they are the ones who screwed things up.

The multinationals can be registered in some foreign tax haven (paying no tax), and operate in any country, with budgets and revenue more than some countries

All we have is divisive issues and nothing to be unified about
Patriotism is almost defined as white racism, if your not displaying token support to black people with 'recognitions', and a love of Muslims, homosexuals and trans people.

We should've unified around a common cause.
'Unity in Self-Sufficiency'
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 17 December 2023 3:00:36 PM
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"The government makes the policies, they are the ones who screwed things up."
And who votes the government into govern?
The people!
It doesn't matter how you shake it, it's the populace that bears both responsibility and consequence.
You can have a expose presentation on the Australian political horizon on one TV channel, and a football or cricket match on another.
Who do you suppose is going to have the majority viewers?
If you want to cry about something, cry about the voter ignorance.
Australia, as a country, is no more than an abused child in a relationship with it's abuser, the US and UK, not China.
It was US & UK interests and shareholders that relocated Australian manufacturing elsewhere while the Australian populace was watching sport.
Australia is no more than a holes in the ground that offers you the opportunity of choosing your beliefs.
Get used to it!
Posted by Special Delivery, Sunday, 17 December 2023 11:21:40 PM
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The people!
Special Delvery,
Not quite, Union led people did !
Posted by Indyvidual, Monday, 18 December 2023 10:18:59 AM
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How much more proof do people need to get rubbed into their face till they see that intellectuals are largely ineffectual & the only thing they’re good at is making stupid decisions & unworkable policies.
Posted by Indyvidual, Tuesday, 19 December 2023 11:10:58 AM
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