AC,

Russia does not have fire control over all the roads into Bahkmut, also there were never more than 5000 men there at any one time.

Russia's offensive has been an epic failure with massive losses of men and equipment. Ukraine is ready to counter-attack and Russia is exhausted.

I remember a couple weeks back there was about 12000 Ukrainians in Bakhmut.
Zelensky was defending it at all costs.
Russians have overran the trenches at the big curve in the 0506 road and took a section of that road, which goes west out of Bakhmut to Chasiv Yar.
They've had fire control over that road for weeks as well as the 0504 road that goes through Ivanivske to Kostyantynivka. Ukrainians themselves blew up the bridge on this road over a month back.
The only way in and out now without taking fire is a muddy makeshift track that goes through fields.

The Battle for Bakhmut - Full Update. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.04.22
http://youtu.be/EPyWXaCRmQs+

What did I tell you a week ago? 2 weeks
- And it's looking to be fairly accurate.

"I have heard that the reserve held back for the counter-offensive includes up to 400 000 trained soldiers. If this is true, Russia is in for a bad time."

I'm sure they're going to give it a good crack, I don't hold out much hopes of success.
I think those pentagon documents were released deliberately to confuse and buy time to make sure everything was in place.

AC,

As I said, the Russians overran the trenches on the road but over-extended themselves, were pushed out, and no longer had fire control over the road. Check for yourself. Your predictions are wrong as usual.

Hi AC,

This article explains Russia's strategy of gaining ground in Ukraine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65313367

The main reason the strategy is working is because it exploits Ukraine's limited ammunition supply, but it is causing Russia large casualties and using lots of ammunition.

There are many unknowns in the conflict, not least the state of the Russian and Ukrainian armies.

The Ukrainian General Staff is urgently trying to change the defence tactics of Bakhmut/Avdeevka/Ugledar, due to the massive use of aerial bombs by Russian troops. The main principle was built around the creation of fortified areas from high-rise buildings, in which snipers were located on the upper floors, and warehouses and headquarters of units in the basements. In recent days, Russian troops have been conducting reconnaissance using drones, and then bombing the buildings, after which nothing remains of the houses, and those who are in the basements are simply buried alive, since there is no way to dismantle the rubble. The losses are so significant that the General Staff is forced to change the strategy for the defence of cities.