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The Forum > Article Comments > Peak oil in transition > Comments

Peak oil in transition : Comments

By Aaron Nielsen, published 23/9/2009

The goal of transition is to make communities more robust to problems such as an economic downturn or the disruption of utilities.

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Good one Aaron! Reminds me of a line I read elsewhere about activism that it is not enough to tell people what you are against, you have to tell them what you are for.
Posted by michael_in_adelaide, Wednesday, 23 September 2009 10:12:42 AM
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the fact that the theatre was empty and the film playing in only thre theatres is itself an indication of how popular the message is - or perhaps its just a bad film, or perhaps people don't like to be called stupid.
And there is a problem with the peak oil message. Peak oil has never been about oil running out entirely. when that forecast was made some years back the authors were at pains to point out its about the switch from conventional to non-conventional sources of oil, and likely disruption in markets.. the author may have convinced himself that the peak has occured - that's his problem - but the disruption just aint happening..
Posted by Curmudgeon, Wednesday, 23 September 2009 12:47:21 PM
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Curmudgeon may think there has been no disruption due to Peak Oil, but from the start of 2007 through to the middle of 2008 the price of oil went from US$67 to US$147 per barrel, and in doing so sucked US$1.75 trillion out of the economies of the OECD countries, helping to bring on the recession the world is now in.

Now, that price rise was caused by oil production only expanding 0.6% over the 18 months, as opposed to the 2.4% that we need to keep the economy expanding smoothly. That was the plateau effect as we get very close to the actual peak. Imagine what it is going to be like when production actually starts falling! As soon as the recession ends and demand increases, demand will once again outstrip supply, and the price will jump back to US$147 and then start going higher still. This is due to the 'free market' (capitalist) method of resource allocation, which says the resources will go to the highest bidders, and the poor will get nothing.

If am afraid the Transition Towns movement will achieve little so long as we live embedded in a capitalist system that encourages such inequality in distribution. Perhaps things will be different when our Government has to bring in petrol rationing under the Liquid Fuels Emergency Act, which is already in place and will probably be triggered in 2011.
Posted by DaveK, Wednesday, 23 September 2009 2:16:40 PM
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Great article Aaron..... I too can remember when the Peak Oil Penny dropped.... I felt so restless, like "what can we do, what can we do, what can we do, what can we do!" Then the depression set in, and then I got stuck into my survival actions. Now I'm still depressed, but only because I see the world is still run by morons who do nothing, know nothing, just wallow in their greed....
Posted by Coorangreeny, Wednesday, 23 September 2009 2:28:00 PM
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Environmentalism is just another ideology that people either deny or hop on board to assuage guilt--as long as no real pain has to be endured.
We can't fix such problems by growing our own veges, not using plastic bags, or pooling the family car. If the hype over climate change is even half true then adjustments to out "lifestyles" won't suffice; we have to make "real" sacrifices. Taking out society's high-end users would probably be an effective energy saving/source of greenhouse sequestration, but this won't happen as we'd end up with a distasteful rabble; the exclusive estates and limos and private planes will keep on flying. What we are about to witness, I suspect, is a process of controlled attrition. Essential services will be gradually rolled "in" and re-administered on a user pays basis. Not just energy, but the services it provides. Identified areas that don't feed the system (such as generationally unemployed demographics) will be starved in turn and left to deteriorate "naturally". Reserves will be preserved for the wealthy and for those who constitute a vital "means of production". The rest will be left to their own devices and, via their decimation, will contribute to the overall good in terms of carbon credits. Indeed, human lives could easily be accounted for, economically, as so many carbon credits each.
Feel-good fantasies about getting back to sustainable nature are just that: fantasies--how would it go in sub-Saharan Africa I wonder? High-end lifestyles will not deteriorate, they will just become more exclusive.
Indeed, if the masses can be induced to get behind the cause, then every last drop can be squeezed out before their ultimate liability precludes their usefulness.
Too gloomy?
Posted by Squeers, Wednesday, 23 September 2009 3:06:03 PM
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Aaron, nice work, i really enjoyed reading this article and its links. I agree, we have to learn to walk before we can run.

As we become aware of what we can do within our personal lives to become less reliant on oil and superstores, slowly but surely our perspective will change, and slowly, the big guns won't have any more support from a growing group of people. Its just like that scene in Finding Nemo where one fish couldn't escape the net of the fishermen, but as the message caught on, the whole school of fish were able to escape.
We can complain all we want about the big businesses doing the wrong thing, but they are thriving on our customer loyalty. If we don't support them then they will have less chance of survival.
Posted by Clarendongal, Wednesday, 23 September 2009 3:40:27 PM
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