Good one Aaron! Reminds me of a line I read elsewhere about activism that it is not enough to tell people what you are against, you have to tell them what you are for.

the fact that the theatre was empty and the film playing in only thre theatres is itself an indication of how popular the message is - or perhaps its just a bad film, or perhaps people don't like to be called stupid.
And there is a problem with the peak oil message. Peak oil has never been about oil running out entirely. when that forecast was made some years back the authors were at pains to point out its about the switch from conventional to non-conventional sources of oil, and likely disruption in markets.. the author may have convinced himself that the peak has occured - that's his problem - but the disruption just aint happening..

Curmudgeon may think there has been no disruption due to Peak Oil, but from the start of 2007 through to the middle of 2008 the price of oil went from US$67 to US$147 per barrel, and in doing so sucked US$1.75 trillion out of the economies of the OECD countries, helping to bring on the recession the world is now in.

Now, that price rise was caused by oil production only expanding 0.6% over the 18 months, as opposed to the 2.4% that we need to keep the economy expanding smoothly. That was the plateau effect as we get very close to the actual peak. Imagine what it is going to be like when production actually starts falling! As soon as the recession ends and demand increases, demand will once again outstrip supply, and the price will jump back to US$147 and then start going higher still. This is due to the 'free market' (capitalist) method of resource allocation, which says the resources will go to the highest bidders, and the poor will get nothing.

If am afraid the Transition Towns movement will achieve little so long as we live embedded in a capitalist system that encourages such inequality in distribution. Perhaps things will be different when our Government has to bring in petrol rationing under the Liquid Fuels Emergency Act, which is already in place and will probably be triggered in 2011.

Great article Aaron..... I too can remember when the Peak Oil Penny dropped.... I felt so restless, like "what can we do, what can we do, what can we do, what can we do!" Then the depression set in, and then I got stuck into my survival actions. Now I'm still depressed, but only because I see the world is still run by morons who do nothing, know nothing, just wallow in their greed....

Environmentalism is just another ideology that people either deny or hop on board to assuage guilt--as long as no real pain has to be endured.
We can't fix such problems by growing our own veges, not using plastic bags, or pooling the family car. If the hype over climate change is even half true then adjustments to out "lifestyles" won't suffice; we have to make "real" sacrifices. Taking out society's high-end users would probably be an effective energy saving/source of greenhouse sequestration, but this won't happen as we'd end up with a distasteful rabble; the exclusive estates and limos and private planes will keep on flying. What we are about to witness, I suspect, is a process of controlled attrition. Essential services will be gradually rolled "in" and re-administered on a user pays basis. Not just energy, but the services it provides. Identified areas that don't feed the system (such as generationally unemployed demographics) will be starved in turn and left to deteriorate "naturally". Reserves will be preserved for the wealthy and for those who constitute a vital "means of production". The rest will be left to their own devices and, via their decimation, will contribute to the overall good in terms of carbon credits. Indeed, human lives could easily be accounted for, economically, as so many carbon credits each.
Feel-good fantasies about getting back to sustainable nature are just that: fantasies--how would it go in sub-Saharan Africa I wonder? High-end lifestyles will not deteriorate, they will just become more exclusive.
Indeed, if the masses can be induced to get behind the cause, then every last drop can be squeezed out before their ultimate liability precludes their usefulness.
Too gloomy?

Aaron, nice work, i really enjoyed reading this article and its links. I agree, we have to learn to walk before we can run.

As we become aware of what we can do within our personal lives to become less reliant on oil and superstores, slowly but surely our perspective will change, and slowly, the big guns won't have any more support from a growing group of people. Its just like that scene in Finding Nemo where one fish couldn't escape the net of the fishermen, but as the message caught on, the whole school of fish were able to escape.
We can complain all we want about the big businesses doing the wrong thing, but they are thriving on our customer loyalty. If we don't support them then they will have less chance of survival.

No disruption Curmudgeon...? Exactly WHAT do you think is happening at the moment..?

When oil worked its way up to $147 last year, the cost of everything went up too, not least of course petrol and food. But worse, the morons who run the economy called it "inflation" (inflation is the devaluation of money, NOT the cost of things going up) and so raised interest rates as well....

So people on marginal incomes spat the dummy on their mortgages (in a very big way in the US) and the housing bubble popped. The rest as they say, is history, and whilst this recession would have occurred anyway due to idiotic debt levels, it was Peak Oil that triggered the sudden collapse of the economy last year and the demise of many US banks.....

Now the US economy is beyond recovery, there will be little or no investment in new oil infrastructure, and this recession will continue for years and years and will eventually (if it hasn't already) turn into a depression with no end.

Unlike the last depression when the US was swimming in oil, this one doesn't have the energy base to even sputter out of the big hole we've dug ourselves into....

Expect fuel shortages soon....

Squeers .. "Environmentalism is just another ideology that people either deny or hop on board to assuage guilt--as long as no real pain has to be endured"

How true, and if you do hop on board, you sure want everyone:
1. To know you're on board, no point doing this quietly is there?
2. To demand the government do whatever it is your sect, group, association, foundation, club, institute or whatever, wants done, NOW!
3. To demand everyone else instantly sign up to your beliefs or else! (there's even murmurings of it being a crime not to be sufficiently on board, see AGW forums, and "denial")
4. To join your sect etc, not someone else's, because you're different, and anyway, they're wrong.
5. To attain rapture as soon as possible, the current eco/enviro types all seem to have zero patience, is that just a result of the instant gratification internet world?
6 Agree the world is ending via, bleaching of reefs, peak oil/gas, over-population, AGW, polar bears and many other things are dying, then make that thing your shtick and endlessly bother people that's it's almost too late and there's a TIPPING POINT COMING!
7. To quietly forget all this when yet another doom is dodged like so many through the ages, and no one quite remembers how it all got started, but let's just put it behind us.

We'll adapt, regardless of the "look at me" antics of our politicians who love attention and various groups who all demand their problem is the big one and must be funded and fixed NOW!

I guess once you sign up to these sort of ideologies, you have to keep going or feel a little silly. Like a Christian or whatever having that realization that atheism is a possibility after all.

No, no! The price spike of a while back does not count as disruption .. economists are still struggling to explain it but, sorry, peak oil has fallen out of the mix. The link below is to the article the mainstream is quoting at the moment.. has generally favourable reviews. Note the increase in global proved oil reserves in the graph on page 25.. for most observers that about kills peak oil.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/19401722/World-Oil-Market-or-Mayhem-by-James-Smith

RPG - your comments on environmentalists is simplistic, stereotyped, facile and inane. I often wonder when I read comments like this, what prompts someone clearly in a position of complete ignorance to make sweeping and absolute statements about something he knows nothing about. I can imagine you would have the same approach to climate change. Really, spend some time with different environment groups and you might begin to get a picture.

next - you have your opinion and I have mine.

I find your comments typical of the guilt ridden doomsayers.

such is life.

"Really, spend some time with different environment groups and you might begin to get a picture"

resistance is futile, you will be assimilated

(note to self: must get more heathens converted.)

As usual debate on this subject becomes rapidly polarised. The concept of peak oil is relatively simple - it is the same principle that applies ot mining of all sorts. In the beginning the amount of energy required to extract whatever it is you are looking for is relatively little. Over time as you begin to exhaust the source the amount of energy required to extract your commodity becomes greater than that commodity is worth. So it is with oil - it is not so much that we will run out of the stuff but rather that the cost of extracting the oil becomes greater than your return on investment. For a global economy dependent on oil that is bad news. If you are planning to be in business for a long time then you would be well advised to find ways of staying in business regardless of what happens to oil. Nothing to do with being a doom merchant but everything to do with hedging your bets.
We know that there have been no significant new finds of oil in the last 20 years or so. We know that the output from all but a handful of oil fields is declining. We also know that demand for oil will increase as the demand in both India and China increases.
All of the above can be worked out by anyone who cares to exercise a little brain pain.
Of course there will be those who wish to deny the reality of peak oil and good luck to them - regretfully wishing its wasn't so will not change anything

Could RPG and the other peak oil sceptics please find answers to the following questions.

1. Which decade did we discover the most oil?

2. How has the discovery of conventional oil been going since then?
Keep in mind that oil is probably only 2nd to the military in terms of the money and technology available to their enterprise. Big oil have BILLIONS at their disposal for the latest discovery technologies.

3. What is the ratio of discovery to consumption? Are we discovering more than we use, or less? How good or 'bad' is the ratio?

4. How long has the trend been in this direction?

5. How many oil producing countries have already peaked and are in irreversible decline?

6. Which countries are still able increase production and have not reached their all time historical peak??

7. Do these nations allow the international community to audit their reserves to the verify this claim, or are they closed to outside audit? In other words, is there an 'international oil cop' with a giant dipstick that can actually check whether OPEC reports have real barrels or just paper barrels in their books?

8. If domestic consumption of oil exporting nations rises too fast (because of a booming domestic economy), how quickly can domestic consumption outpace their ability to export post peak? (Hint: there are historical precedents — google "Export Land Model").

9. If those few exporting nations that are left suddenly DO decide to keep the oil for their own economies, how relevant is a global depletion rate of 5% per annum if the OIL MARKET has collapsed because hardly any nations are selling?

Get back to us on this ASAP please, it should be very entertaining.

rpg,

Your caricature of environmentalism suggests to me that you didn't quite make it to the end of my article.

Not everyone who is aware of a problem will shout about it from the rooftops (hence my imagery of sandwich boards), just as not everyone who doesn't have a solution will hide their head under a green shopping bag and hope it all goes away. The point I am making is that neither of these approaches is ideal, and that there is a more reasonable tone in which to discuss what are fairly monumental topics.

Some of us do believe that the world could be a better place and that the time has come to make it happen. Personally, I would rather see us lead by example than by rage, fearmongering, cynicism or denial. We aren't forcing you to join in, but we can't really wait for you.

Regards,

Aaron Nielsen

RPG and Odo

It's not a matter of opinion - it's a matter of informed opinion. I have been a member of numerous environment groups and any notion that they are homegenous or filled with crazed fundamentalists is just wrong. You may not like the messages you hear. You may not like the methods that you're aware of (not all of them are public or publicised), but that is a different argument. From where I sit the most extreme sector are the climate sceptics who simply refuse to accept an incredible level of consensus in the scientific community - and put it down to a conspiracy of almost unimaginable proportions

next - from where I sit the most dangerous extremists are those activists who stop dams being built for cities like Melbourne, who lobby against the development of technology like Nuclear Power for idealistic reasons, not because we have an increasing population and need more energy,

Now you want to tax everyone for a supposed solution to a problem that may or may not be caused my man, you want to control the temperature of the planet - what hubris. Do you think for a minute that any money raised will be used effectively to reduce CO2, you have to be very young and immature to believe something like that, sorry, I can only LOL.

I've lived through various panics in the past, and I'm sure will survive more in the future. We will adapt, we will survive.

If Australia is so stupid as to put itself back to the dark ages just to make a big "look at me" point to the world, who doesn't care by the way, I'll go live somewhere like France because they at least have the sense to have Nuclear Power.

I dislike the constant bullying of the eco types on this forum. Very few of you have any tolerance for ideas other than your own - for your information, I have informed opinion as well. You clearly don't like it and seem to be in denial any other opinion can exist, get over it and grow up.

I know it's difficult for many of you, but yes, some people can actually have a different opinion. I have other activities that contribute to society and I don't need to be joining environmental groups (I'd rather chew my arm off if you lot are examples of them), I choose not to be a botherer of people and a finger wagger to people doing things I don't like.

"I dislike the constant bullying of the eco types on this forum. Very few of you have any tolerance for ideas other than your own - for your information, I have informed opinion as well. You clearly don't like it and seem to be in denial any other opinion can exist, get over it and grow up."

"informed opinion"... interesting, what makes you believe that about yourself?

Are you going to attempt to answer my 8 questions above? You're the one trashing peak oil and throwing allegations of 'dark ages' out there. Go on, show us how informed you are. 8 answers please.

The head of oil giant Total has told the BBC the world could face a shortage of oil because of underinvestment.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8266200.stm

Chief executive Christophe de Margerie warned that too little has been spent trying to tap into new oil reserves because of the economic crisis.

"If we don't move [now] there will be a problem," Mr de Margerie said. "In two or three years it will be too late."

He also said he thought oil prices would rise to more than $100 a barrel, from their current level of around $70.

"The reserves of oil are there, but if you don't invest they don't come on the market," Mr de Margerie said.

"What we have to decide today is production for 2010-2015. So in between we might be faced with insufficient oil to meet demand." <MORE>

Coorangreeny,
thanks for that post, but I don't think you'll get an honest answer from RPG & sceptical friends. They won't be convinced by the data, as they have their "opinions!" Everyone bow before THEIR opinions!

RGP, I'm sorry I lost my temper with you a few pages back and I asked for those comments to be deleted. They were. So I've apologised for the offensive way I wrote and done something about it.

Yet unless you answer my 9 questions (yes, 9, I forgot that I added an extra question) your position in this thread is one of a hurt little boy who didn't win at cricket and took his bat and walked home.

"Opinions" don't matter as much as hard data. Where's yours on peak oil?

Here's 2 'quotes of the day' for you, from the peak oil wiki. (Which might help you answer the 9 peak oil questions).

Quote 1:
“ All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas. ”

— William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December 2005[36]

Quote 2:
“ World reserves are confused and in fact inflated. Many of the so-called reserves are in fact resources. They're not delineated, they're not accessible, they’re not available for production ”

— Sadad I. Al Husseini, former VP of Aramco, presentation to the Oil and Money conference, October 2007.[7]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

RPG, good luck on the 9 questions. We're all waiting eagerly for you to find data that backs your opinion.