As usual debate on this subject becomes rapidly polarised. The concept of peak oil is relatively simple - it is the same principle that applies ot mining of all sorts. In the beginning the amount of energy required to extract whatever it is you are looking for is relatively little. Over time as you begin to exhaust the source the amount of energy required to extract your commodity becomes greater than that commodity is worth. So it is with oil - it is not so much that we will run out of the stuff but rather that the cost of extracting the oil becomes greater than your return on investment. For a global economy dependent on oil that is bad news. If you are planning to be in business for a long time then you would be well advised to find ways of staying in business regardless of what happens to oil. Nothing to do with being a doom merchant but everything to do with hedging your bets.
We know that there have been no significant new finds of oil in the last 20 years or so. We know that the output from all but a handful of oil fields is declining. We also know that demand for oil will increase as the demand in both India and China increases.
All of the above can be worked out by anyone who cares to exercise a little brain pain.
Of course there will be those who wish to deny the reality of peak oil and good luck to them - regretfully wishing its wasn't so will not change anything

Could RPG and the other peak oil sceptics please find answers to the following questions.

1. Which decade did we discover the most oil?

2. How has the discovery of conventional oil been going since then?
Keep in mind that oil is probably only 2nd to the military in terms of the money and technology available to their enterprise. Big oil have BILLIONS at their disposal for the latest discovery technologies.

3. What is the ratio of discovery to consumption? Are we discovering more than we use, or less? How good or 'bad' is the ratio?

4. How long has the trend been in this direction?

5. How many oil producing countries have already peaked and are in irreversible decline?

6. Which countries are still able increase production and have not reached their all time historical peak??

7. Do these nations allow the international community to audit their reserves to the verify this claim, or are they closed to outside audit? In other words, is there an 'international oil cop' with a giant dipstick that can actually check whether OPEC reports have real barrels or just paper barrels in their books?

8. If domestic consumption of oil exporting nations rises too fast (because of a booming domestic economy), how quickly can domestic consumption outpace their ability to export post peak? (Hint: there are historical precedents — google "Export Land Model").

9. If those few exporting nations that are left suddenly DO decide to keep the oil for their own economies, how relevant is a global depletion rate of 5% per annum if the OIL MARKET has collapsed because hardly any nations are selling?

Get back to us on this ASAP please, it should be very entertaining.

rpg,

Your caricature of environmentalism suggests to me that you didn't quite make it to the end of my article.

Not everyone who is aware of a problem will shout about it from the rooftops (hence my imagery of sandwich boards), just as not everyone who doesn't have a solution will hide their head under a green shopping bag and hope it all goes away. The point I am making is that neither of these approaches is ideal, and that there is a more reasonable tone in which to discuss what are fairly monumental topics.

Some of us do believe that the world could be a better place and that the time has come to make it happen. Personally, I would rather see us lead by example than by rage, fearmongering, cynicism or denial. We aren't forcing you to join in, but we can't really wait for you.

Regards,

Aaron Nielsen

RPG and Odo

It's not a matter of opinion - it's a matter of informed opinion. I have been a member of numerous environment groups and any notion that they are homegenous or filled with crazed fundamentalists is just wrong. You may not like the messages you hear. You may not like the methods that you're aware of (not all of them are public or publicised), but that is a different argument. From where I sit the most extreme sector are the climate sceptics who simply refuse to accept an incredible level of consensus in the scientific community - and put it down to a conspiracy of almost unimaginable proportions

next - from where I sit the most dangerous extremists are those activists who stop dams being built for cities like Melbourne, who lobby against the development of technology like Nuclear Power for idealistic reasons, not because we have an increasing population and need more energy,

Now you want to tax everyone for a supposed solution to a problem that may or may not be caused my man, you want to control the temperature of the planet - what hubris. Do you think for a minute that any money raised will be used effectively to reduce CO2, you have to be very young and immature to believe something like that, sorry, I can only LOL.

I've lived through various panics in the past, and I'm sure will survive more in the future. We will adapt, we will survive.

If Australia is so stupid as to put itself back to the dark ages just to make a big "look at me" point to the world, who doesn't care by the way, I'll go live somewhere like France because they at least have the sense to have Nuclear Power.

I dislike the constant bullying of the eco types on this forum. Very few of you have any tolerance for ideas other than your own - for your information, I have informed opinion as well. You clearly don't like it and seem to be in denial any other opinion can exist, get over it and grow up.

I know it's difficult for many of you, but yes, some people can actually have a different opinion. I have other activities that contribute to society and I don't need to be joining environmental groups (I'd rather chew my arm off if you lot are examples of them), I choose not to be a botherer of people and a finger wagger to people doing things I don't like.

"I dislike the constant bullying of the eco types on this forum. Very few of you have any tolerance for ideas other than your own - for your information, I have informed opinion as well. You clearly don't like it and seem to be in denial any other opinion can exist, get over it and grow up."

"informed opinion"... interesting, what makes you believe that about yourself?

Are you going to attempt to answer my 8 questions above? You're the one trashing peak oil and throwing allegations of 'dark ages' out there. Go on, show us how informed you are. 8 answers please.