Agronomist,

Australia's grain production is enormously variable from year to year, largely due to variations in the supply of water. This is why Sydney has to store 8 times as much water per person as London. You don't want people going hungry because of a multi-year drought, which the climatologists are telling us is going to be more likely in the future. I agree with you absolutely about the need for more agricultural research, but raising public awareness that there is a problem, as Michael is doing, obviously has to be the first step. No doubt agriculture can continue, but it will get a lot more expensive after the cheap oil is gone. A major cause of those very high grain prices last year, provoking food riots in 34 countries, was higher oil prices feeding through to higher prices for farm inputs.

Curmudgeon,

You brought up Limits to Growth, not us. If Lester Brown and his institute are good enough for the editors of Scientific American (judging from his article in the May issue), they ought to be good enough for OLO. This doesn't mean that he is always right - even Einstein was wrong about quantum mechanics - but refuting him requires evidence, not just automatic dismissal of anything he says. Likewise, statistics from the UN or the US Department of Agriculture don't become tainted because someone has graphed them and presented them in a convenient form. You are quibbling about sources to derail discussion of the real issues.

Here is some more information from that well known lobby group, the World Bank

http://74.125.153.132/search?q=cache:IDdDbGOLescJ:econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/0,,contentMDK:21665883~pagePK:64165401~piPK:64165026~theSitePK:469372,00.html+world+grain+prices+2008&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

Divergence, the major causes of higher food prices in 2007 was supply could not meet demand. Supply was down because of major droughts in major exporting countries like Australia, Argentina, Canada, coupled with policy changes in the EU and US which moved grain into biofuels production. This was exacerbated by hoarding by several exporters, particularly in the rice market.

The effect of the EU and US policies was to move grains into biofuels and away from animal feed. The impact was higher in the US, because they went to ethanol rather than biodiesel. The policies also reduced the area planted to wheat in both the US and EU. The lack of corn availability for animal feed, increased demand for other coarse grains and wheat. This coupled with reduced over all availability of food grains created a massive price spike.

My point still stands, the population of Australia could increase substantially before Australia would be unable to feed itself. Other countries do not have that luxury. Increasing population in Australia is likely to have substantial impacts in other areas before it does so on food prices.

Food prices in Australia are to some extent at the mercy of factors occurring elsewhere. Farmers have not been able to effectively pass on the higher costs of production, except when supply is short. This has resulted in the terms of trade for farmers diminishing rapidly over the last 30 years. The relative price of food is much less now than it was 30 years ago and is much less for Australian consumers than it is for consumers in third world countries.

Last point, if fuel prices increase too much, biofuels and other alternatives become more practical and no doubt will be used. This could have a serious effect on food availability and food prices throughout the world. Australia, by virtue of its substantial exports will not go short of food, but prices will rise.

Agronomist,

The sources I have read all include your points, but they also claim that high oil prices have been important too. See for example

http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/testimony/rosegrant20080507.asp

I agree with you about the problems in poor countries, and you are probably right that population growth will cause other serious problems here long before Australians go hungry, at least under present circumstances. However, what if the climatologists are right about what global warming will do to rainfall and evaporation in our food-growing regions? There are still uncertainties, but it might be better if we didn't bet the farm that they are wrong.

This HD video on Youtube (only a few minutes) pretty much says it all about the direction we should be heading in, and fast.

By America's Congress for New Urbanism.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGJt_YXIoJI

http://www.cnu.org/

Eclipse Now

Due to illness/accident I never completed my degree in Landscape Architecture, then I see a little gem of inspiration like the Youtube film to which you linked and wonder if there isn't something I could still do within Environmental work.

Thank you

That's very kind of you to thank me but I'm not architect or town planner, just love the 3 main varieties of New Urbanism, Ecocity, and Township.

Try this!

This 15 minute movie at the top of the page is WORTH watching because: * it is happening in Australi over the next few years, somewhere south of Sydney
* it is extremely attractive, being "more European than European" in design and yet not 'ecovillage' or for hippies
* for the mainstream. A town plan that is SO beautiful, car free, yet allows "disciplined" use of the car outside the town walls... anyway, watch the film to understand. Claude spoke at TEDx Sydney this year.
http://villageforum.com/

Also, just have a quick look at this 'Before, during, and after' illustration of what a "big box" chainstore / Department store and car park can become, if we rezone and put our minds to it!
http://www.ecocitybuilders.org/downtown.html

(This last one really IS a hippies dream! I LIKE it! ;-)