There has been atmospheric cooling the last 8 years, and no new high global annual temperatures in the last 11 years. Anthropogenic (or man caused) global warming is not proved. None of the computer models replicate this fact.

The global warming adherents base their argument of proof on more than 20 different computer models called general circulation models (also known as global climate models or GCMs). Each computer model is composed of dozens of mathematical equations representing known scientific laws, theories, and hypotheses. Each equation has one or more constants. The constants associated with known laws are very well defined. The constants associated with known theories are generally accepted but probably some of them may be off by a factor of 2 or more, maybe even an order of magnitude. The equations representing hypotheses, well, sometimes the hypotheses are just plain wrong. Then each of these equations has to be weighted against each other for use in the computer models, so that adds an additional variable (basically an educated guess) for each law, theory, and hypothesis. This is where the models are tweaked to mimic past climate measurements.

The SCIENTIFIC METHOD is: (1) Following years of academic study of the known physical laws and accepted theories, and after reviewing some data, come up with a hypothesis to explain the data. (2) Develop a plan to obtain and analyze new data. (3) Collect and analyze the data, this may even require new technology not previously available. (4) Determine if the hypothesis is correct, needs refinement, or is wrong. Either way, new data is available for other researchers. (5) Submit results, including data, for peer review and publication.

The output of the computer models run out nearly 90 years forward is considered to be data, but it is not a measurement of a physical phenomenon. Also, there is no way to analyze this so called data to determine if any or which of the hypotheses in the models are correct, need refinement, or are wrong. This method cannot indicate if other new hypotheses need to be generated and incorporated into the models.

NucEngineer says 'There has been atmospheric cooling the last 8 years, and no new high global annual temperatures in the last 11 years.'

So why was the last 10 years the hottest on record? and significantly hotter than the previous 10 years according to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, with 2005 being the highest on record.

The NYMEX has light sweet crude futures at $79 in Dec 2014. Doesn't look like peak oil, anytime soon?

Timely post Michael, given the recent BOM report on the
drying of SE Australia
summarised on bravenewclimate.com. I'm not quite so depressed
about the net import of fruit and veg. This is a dollar net
figure, not one based on something like calories. I'm guessing
if you looked at tonnage or calories the answer would
be different. e.g., We are a huge net
exporter of fish based on dollars, but on tonnage we are usually
a net importer, this is because we export the expensive stuff
(tuna to Japan) and import
the cheap stuff. Your other figure on food exports deserves full
attention.

Global warming vs local non-warming. Peak Oil vs oil price falls. Both could be prime examples of non-linear short term behaviour which we dismiss at out peril. The underlying trend could catch up on us like a ton of bricks. In as little as five years time there could be simultaneous shortages of food, fuel and water. If so it seems rather short sighted to prop up the retail and finance industries when we should be investing in alternative energy and alternative food production models.

Despite short term signals consider the evidence. The sea level is rising steadily. Murray-Darling inflows are declining. Oil production has not returned to its plateau of 2005-2008 and appears to be in 3-5% annual decline. Food production needs not only abundant water but ten kilojoules of diesel and nitrogen fertiliser for every kilojoule we eat. While crude oil is now over 50% depleted concentrated phosphate is 70% depleted. To cap it off we are returning to El Nino conditions. Keep up that optimism.

OC617,

Your confidence in the ability of the market to predict prices is amazing, and nothing if not consistent:

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=8040#125827
http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=7981#124984
http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=7213#110938

This consistency is bemusing considering last year the markets have shown they could not forecast the price of the money they control in the next month, let alone the price of a house in a year.

Anyway, I see the price of crude has increased 50% in the last 6 months. At that rate next year is should match its 2008 highs. No doubt you will still be beating the same drum then.

Speaking of drums, I see the CEO one last industry "peak oil" holdout, Shell, has grudging acknowledged its reality:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3548

This brings him into line with the rest of the industry. There was no detectable reaction in the price of long term futures of oil, of course.