The Forum > Article Comments > Heaven, Earth and science fiction > Comments
Heaven, Earth and science fiction : Comments
By Mike Pope, published 11/6/2009To avoid following the polar bear to extinction, 'homo sapiens' would do well to reject the science fiction espoused by Professor Ian Plimer.
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Continental drift occurs over MILLIONS of years, I think we’ll have time to adapt. Super-volcanoes cannot be controlled. Where we get our source of energy can!
You understand the power of exponential growth? 1% annual growth over one human lifetime of 70 years = a doubling of resource use. 2% growth is 4 times, 3% growth is 8 times the resource being used. Basically, when reading reports that claim coal reserves will last 132 years “At current rates” you should scream at the report “THERE HAS NEVER BEEN SUCH A THING AS 'CURRENT RATES' SINCE THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION YOU MORONS!”
Coal is running out!
As the wiki says:
“However, the rate of coal consumption is annually increasing at 2-3% per year and, setting the growth rate to 2.5% yields an exponential depletion time of 56 years (in 2065).[46]”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal#World_coal_reserves
But that ignores the concept of a resource “peaking”. Resource extraction does not follow a clear increasing line of resource and then suddenly STOP! Mineral resources follow a bell curve of extraction, where all the good, easy to use stuff is used first and all the hard, less economical stuff to extract occurs later. We move from a world of cheap coal to expensive coal only a year or 2 after it peaks, and prices will skyrocket! This will damage any economy addicted to coal.
I’m convinced peak coal is around 2025 to 2030 ish.
Check this SMH article claiming NSW coal will RUN OUT by 2042, let alone it peaking beforehand.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/reserves-to-dry-up-as-clean-coal-becomes-viable/2007/04/09/1175971023057.html

More on peak coal.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_coal
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/052504_coal_peak.html
http://globalpublicmedia.com/heinberg_coals_future_in_doubt
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/files/Coal_English.pdf
You’re big on adapting? So let’s adapt! Panic will only happen in the unprepared denialist regimes. Adaptation means cleaner, trendier, more beautiful cities, energy security, “enough” resources for all and more community spirit. It’s all good.