*To be realistic the politicians would be too frightened to do this
until it was too late.*

Well luckily they are, or we'd have more politicians peeing huge
amounts of money up against walls, on hairbrain schemes at taxpayers
expense. We've always had all these people who think that they
can predict the future, the law of unitended consequences comes
to play and the whole thing lands up in one big mess. Best to
just let the market sort it out.

Bazz, I don't think you understand how Woodside operate. They
are busy spending 12 billion$ on expanding their facilities.
Now go down to your local bank branch and ask them what kind of
guarantees you need, for them to lend you 12 billion. I can
assure you that you won't get the money, unless you have some
customers signed up for 30 years or so. Woodside are no different.

If ES customers want that gas, they are free to sign on the dotted
line with one of the oilers developing the NW shelf and commit
to buying large volumes of gas for the next 30 years. Otherwise
that gas will be sold to those who will sign, or those fields will
never be developed. Thats the reality.

WEll Yabby,
Read the article ?
The arithmetic is quite simple so you can check the effect on supply
yourself. All the input numbers are available.
>We've always had all these people who think that they
>can predict the future, the law of unitended consequences comes
>to play and the whole thing lands up in one big mess.

No doubt there will be unintended consequences, but the market works
fine while there is a production response to higher prices.
Why is it with a four times increase in price there is no more
production and prices still climbing ?
The market mechanism can only work when production can be increased.

No one really knows how long it will take to transition to an alternative energy regime.
So doesn't it make sense to husband the resources we have
rather than wait till they are depleting. After all the Chinese said
they will burn all their coal and then burn ours !

The oil majors are spending increased amounts of money in search and
yet the finds are getting smaller. On the record Australia has been
very poor in oil search results.
We are using many times the amount of oil we find.
When we come up against the world shortage of crude oil then we will
develop the gas fields for our own use.

BTW, have you noticed that service stations now have especially made
labels to put on pumps that are empty ? Previously they just used to
turn the pump off and stick a piece of paper on the pump.
I only buy petrol about once a fortnight but every time I have been in
the last few months there are always several pumps with the yellow labels on them.
They say it is because of a refinery problem with premium petrol.
This has been going on for months and one service station in Sydney
ran right out of everything a week or so ago.
Am I being paranoid ?
Or is this as we have been told, one of the symptoms of tightening supply ? Hmmmm.

Bazz, yes I read the article and you overlook many factors, which change
the whole state of play and outcome.

What we have at present is a shortage of oil, based on nationalism.
Russia, Venezuela, Iran and a host of others, basically got rid of the
Oil majors and their technology and nationalised their oil industries.

How much oil remains to be discovered in these countries, we just don’t
know. I note that there have been some good finds in Brazil recently.

Who supplies us now is basically irrelevant. What the whole thing
will come down to is price. If we can afford to buy 200-300$ oil and
other nations can’t, then we will get the oil.

At those sorts of prices, consumers might finally get serious about
consuming less. 100$ oil seems to be having little effect, so its still
too cheap. There are still people buying V8s, people are flying more
then ever before, oil wastage is still absolutaly enormous. In America,
people still drive to their Starbucks for a coffee, seemingly too lazy
to make their own.

Just look around you, we still waste huge amounts of energy every
day, that includes oil and coal. Only higher prices will change that,
but higher prices will also bring in new technologies.

I gather that something like 60% of households still have electric hot
water systems, despite Govt subsidies and despite solar water heaters
working like a charm. Perhaps if power is 2-3 times more expensive
people will rethink.

The market will work far better then all your taxpayer funded rules
and regulations that you have dreamed up.

Subsidies for solar and other energy efficiencies will go a long way in helping us to change habits of a lifetime but there is a risk that those who can least afford to make the changeover will incur the higher power costs down the track, despite the will they may not have the way.

I watched, for the first time the other day a film called 'Who Killed the Electric Car'. Very interesting insight into the recalling and destruction by GM of all the leased EV1 prototypes. This corresponded with the turnabout by California to aim for zero emissions policy in relation to transport. The electric car was working and some of the backroom deals are a bit of a worry.

How are we to make the necessary changes if business interests once again influence the hard choices that will have to be made for a sustainable future and a future without oil?

Anyway see the DVD if you can it is interesting stuff.

*'Who Killed the Electric Car'. Very interesting insight into the recalling and destruction by GM of all the leased EV1 prototypes.*

So who killed GM? I don't know if you are aware of it, but they
are not far short of being technically bankrupt, whilst Toyota,
with their hybrid cars, are booming and even being offered
500 million $ by the Aus Govt to build them in Australia.

Even large companies like GM cannot ignore consumers, who hold
all the cards today.

Yabby wrote;

How much oil remains to be discovered in these countries, we just don’t
know. I note that there have been some good finds in Brazil recently.

Well, they do have a very good idea how much is likely to be discovered.
What you do not seem to have taken into account is that no super giants
are being discovered since the 1970s, all that gets discovered now are
midrange fields at best.
One recent discovery would if developed instantly be able to supply the
whole world for six hours. It is the rate of depletion that is going on
and the rate of discovery that does not match.
Currently we are hanging on because the higher price is cutting back
in some of the poorer countries.
Production has been flat for four years now, but how long before we
run out of poorer countries ?

Electric hot water heaters ? We have a liquid fuels problem not
an electricity problem.
However I am sure we will flog off our gas for the holy dollar
without a thought for the future.
The politicians are simply too lily livered to do something that
unpopular. I note that Peter Garrett ignored the topic in a recent
TV program, they simply don't want to hear the words peak oil.

Suggestd reading, Twilight in the Desert, Matthew Simmons and
Beyond Oil by Kenneth Deffeyes.
The first is pretty heavy going but the second is an easier read.

A quote from Deffeyes book;
Anyone who believes that expotential growth can go on forever in a
finite world is either a madman or an economist.

I can see Yabby that you are neither but you show all signs of being
a politician, hi !