The Forum > Article Comments > Planning for peak oil - what it will mean > Comments
Planning for peak oil - what it will mean : Comments
By Sandra Kanck, published 21/2/2008Can the existing population be sustained at current levels of affluence or will peak oil mean lower standards of living?
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Posted by Gargoil, Thursday, 21 February 2008 10:26:26 PM
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Western Australia just finished a doubling of their electrified commuter rail system (an efficient means of converting electricity into transportation).
All new WA buses will be powered by compressed natural gas, which WA has in abundance. Not enough, true, but a step in the right direction. Bringing back trams to Perth and Fremantle would be a good next step. My own plan for reducing USA oil use by 10% in ten to twelve years, much of which could be adapted to Australia. http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=168&Itemid=91 Best Hopes, Alan Drake Posted by AlanfromBigEasy, Friday, 22 February 2008 5:42:15 AM
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There are two scenarios of how peak oil will affect us.
The first is a sudden loss of supplies and the second is a gradual tightening of supply. I believe the second is more likely, but it has to be modified by the reality of the structure of our oil companies. They may well not be allowed to compete in the market against their overseas principles. I think the gradual tightening of supply will be seen as a longer period between tanker arrivals at our refineries, causing shortages for some service stations. Did you notice how a refinery problem led to a shortage of premium petrol ? That led to some shortages of unleaded petrol and even for one service station running right out of everything. That is how I see it affecting us, not an instant collapse but higher prices and more frequent shortages. This will be aggravated by the oil companies having difficulty placing orders for crude oil. It looks increasingly like ethanol will be abandoned as a fuel due to the food diversion problem and the recent realisation that it is not as efficient as previously thought. The government will have no choice but to introduce rationing. The new Access card that will replace the Medicare card with its smart chip will be the solution. Each owner is issued a ration for the year and when you buy petrol you swipe the card and the litres are deducted from your ration. You can sell part of your ration via the system. Electric cars, yes a problem for the grid network, but could be offset to some extent by solar recharging. New designs of solar cells now cost $1 per watt. Still if you drive to work the sun has set by the time you get home. Public transport is the only real solution. Trolley buses to heavy rail stations being the best and cheapest solution. Interstate rail should immediately be duplicated and electrified. It is probably the most important infrastructure project need in Australia. Posted by Bazz, Friday, 22 February 2008 8:17:22 AM
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They say that history repeats its self, anyone seeing the horse and cart making a comeback! I can see it now! The GT racing cart, with twin overhead gee,gee,s and with pin stripping down the sides.
As population grows, the life we all take for granted, is going to hit the wall hard! When oil runs out, the pressure of it all will lead to the next big war! Remember the ten rats in the box! get ready! We need 3 billion to disappear right now, and this will give the rest time to find and perfect the appropriate technologies. Don't jump to conclusions! I don't like it any more than you do, but the facts are staring you in the face! 6 billion people, running out of resources, and it goes on and on. I am starting to think that the people running this world have lead us a-stray.........Thanks alot! Posted by evolution, Friday, 22 February 2008 2:00:33 PM
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They say that history repeats its self, anyone seeing the horse and cart making a comeback! I can see it now! The GT racing cart, with twin overhead gee,gee,s and with pin stripping down the sides
Posted by evolution, Friday, 22 February 2008 2:01:40 PM
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Gargoil-what are your thoughts on electricity from other sources than hydrocarbon?-that is from hydropower, solar furnaces, nuclear, tidal, wave and wind, coupled with energy efficiency programmes to reduce waste of energy. Also on storing in power in fuel cells and pumping water for hydro-power back up hill at non-peak load times?
Granted there is no free lunch in power generation, but, as easy oil is going to run out and we must cut carbon emissions, sooner rather than later we are going to have to move from a hydrocarbon-powered civilisation to an alternative source of transportable energy for travel. Posted by HenryVIII, Friday, 22 February 2008 10:32:53 PM
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If the vehicle is fully electric, it must be plugged in to charge it, and instituting any policy that encourages its that could be catastrophic for any country. Many seem to fail to understand that the electricity going into such a car had to come from somewhere...
... 9 out of 10 times, it's coming from a power plant burning fossil fuels. There is a 30% loss of energy converting chemical to electrical energy – 10% lost pushing it through the power lines – 30% lost converting it back to chemical energy to store in a battery and more lost on the way out again as electricity – another 10% lost through the windings of the motor…
… consuming nearly double the oil and producing nearly double the emissions - at the power plant.