Sadly the Australian govt (past and probably present) has dropped the ball on this. I think Peak Oil is as great a threat to civilsation as climate change. In fact, Peak Oil, by bringing about the literal end of life as we know it will probably save the planet from climate change. A silver lining in every cloud eh?

Imagine no trucks arriving at your nearest supermarket with fresh food deliveries. The result? Starvation on a mass scale in the cities as people run out of food. Mass exodus to the countryside of people looking for food. The break down of law and order, work and social life. Really it is just too dark to even comprehend. Fuel (petrol) is an essential part of every aspect of our way of life, we are a society founded upon hydrocarbons.

When it runs out (and it is soon) we better have comoe up with some solution or we are all in serious trouble.

"Really it is just too dark to even comprehend" - I believe that's why most people, especially those in power, don't want to comprehend it. I commonly hear responses to Peak Oil along either one or both of the following lines:-

"They've been saying for years that oil would run out, and it hasn't yet". Two problems with this. Who are "they"? And where are these erroneous forecasts? Are "they" the same people who are telling us there's a real problem on our doorstep now?

"Even if we run out of oil, they'll find a new source of energy, such as <insert technomiracle solution here>". Again its the anonymous "they", but this time they'll be our saviours, coming up with a solution while we keep living our lives as usual. We've built our civilisation on oil. There are no other abundant, concentrated liquid fuel supplies to replace it.

As a community we either deride the people who bring us uncomfortable news, or trust in someone else to save us while we go about business as usual. Politicians may individually realise how scary PO is, but those in power just don't have the guts to show any real leadership & start preparing us for a softer transition to a low energy future.

Every day we spend doing nothing is a step towards a darker future reality.

For more interesting reading on this subject: http://www.theupsideofdown.com/

Good read. :)

There is plenty of coal and oil-shale to keep our cars on the road. It will just get more expensive, that's all. If we can afford beer at $15 per litre as it is in many pubs now, who cares if petrol goes up in price? We just drink less beer and smoke fewer cigarettes, and maybe buy a bicycle, and grow vegies in our back garden and sell them to our neigbours on the other side of our razor wire fence. Life will certainly get tougher and the haves will do anything to maintain their priviliged position. But eventually Nature will sort us out.

The tradgedy is that viable alternatives are emerging NOW. Electric bikes and trikes are selling exponentially in Asia. Australia could be world leaders...but we don't support new tech, just old tech like coal and old models such as central power generation.
Electric is superiour in many ways except power density and storage efficiency. That is changing fast and with a little vision we could be world leaders. Alas, we all know that Australia chews up and spits out real technical leadership, and protects the old assets at any cost. Bloody crooks are running Victoria...

Regarding this article and several of the comments, the only real solution to the Peak Oil crisis is conservation. There are no real alternatives to oil and natural gas. Coal is peaking globally and oil shale consumes as much energy as it delivers. Solar and wind only yield electric power, which is not very useful for transportation, planting and harvesting, and fertilizer/pesticides etc. See a comprehensive report on this at: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

Also see the 5 articles by Chris Shaw posted on ONLINEOPINION.COM at: http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=3837

100 years or so ago, people coped quite well without oil.
They'd have a quarter acre block, grew some veggies and fruit
trees, kept a few chooks, worked and socialised locally.

If and when oil gets too expensive, going back to that kind
of lifestyle makes perfect sense and is not the end of the
world.

Yabby, tell me how you expect the 80% of the world's population who live in cities to do that?

Hi yabby

Nice thought but i dont see it happening so easily. What this really means for us is decades of more war as we attempt to wrest control from the oil nations. US et al has already chosen war over diplomacy and conservation, why expect anything less? Thats whats scary, that the "peak oil? what peak oil?" myth will be perpetuated by 1st world nations as we continue to reign terror upon less militarised nations in the name of "terrorism". True democracy may fix this, but we are mentally so far from wanting to take back our power right now i cant see it happening for a while.

In the (much) longer term it means:

1. smaller engine capacities, say 2-3 cylinder cars, for non-commercial vehicles
2. higher taxes to discourage car ownership and use, such as large up front registration fees where say 10yrs of rego at $5-10kpa are paid... in advance
3. no cars in cbd radius of say 2kms or heavy tolls for access
4. on/off days for drivers, like water restrictions
5. more public transport
6. (much) higher property values for anything in proximity to city and town centres
7. development of satellite type cities, townships, suburbs.
8. and of course alternative fuels (which have their downsides like driving up grain prices in the case of ethanol production).

Ooh, Countryboy, AFAIK most large cities have urban sprawl around
them, where quarter acre plus blocks are pretty common. I certainly
don't believe in the chardonay set mantra that more high density
living, closer to cities, will solve everything. I'll let other
suckers believe that stuff.

You would actually be amazed, what a small bit of dirt can produce,
using such simple technology like permaculture. So methinks that
people with a bit of dirt will be far better off then those
living in the human zoo.

As far as transport goes, if everyone is so concerned about their
future wheels, why don't they build a pipeline for NW Shelf gas
to the East? We are chilling the stuff to -160deg to export it
cheaply. We could use it ourselves in Australia. Convenience
is still why people prefer oil to gas.

I think that the market will solve most of the issues that Sandra
raises. People will learn quick, once they feel a bit of pain.

Getting energy always involves consuming energy. If anyone cares to think of the energy used in looking for oil, drilling for oil, refining the oil, shipping the oil in supertankers and pipelines that, like offshore drilling platforms, have to be built, and then transporting it and selling it, it is a miracle that petrol is so cheap.

Despite assertions to the contrary, hydrogen surely must have a role to play for the future. Australia is surrounded by an electrolyte called the sea, which will bubble off hydrogen when electrolysed. Electricity can be generated in many ways, none of which singly would produce enough but if combined could surely provide plenty. And energy efficiency would release an excess of unused electricity.

Anyway, once again the Australian Democrats have proved that they think ahead of the larger political parties and also the Australian electorate, which is why the Australian Democrats don't get elected. They are too intelligent for this country.

I am an independent energy consultant and I urge your people to give very serious consideration any time someone wishes to buy and use a fully electric vehicle - whether for private or public transportation.

If the vehicle is fully electric, it must be plugged in to charge it, and instituting any policy that encourages its that could be catastrophic for any country. Many seem to fail to understand that the electricity going into such a car had to come from somewhere...

... 9 out of 10 times, it's coming from a power plant burning fossil fuels. There is a 30% loss of energy converting chemical to electrical energy – 10% lost pushing it through the power lines – 30% lost converting it back to chemical energy to store in a battery and more lost on the way out again as electricity – another 10% lost through the windings of the motor…

… consuming nearly double the oil and producing nearly double the emissions - at the power plant.

Western Australia just finished a doubling of their electrified commuter rail system (an efficient means of converting electricity into transportation).

All new WA buses will be powered by compressed natural gas, which WA has in abundance.

Not enough, true, but a step in the right direction. Bringing back trams to Perth and Fremantle would be a good next step.

My own plan for reducing USA oil use by 10% in ten to twelve years, much of which could be adapted to Australia.

http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=168&Itemid=91

Best Hopes,

Alan Drake

There are two scenarios of how peak oil will affect us.
The first is a sudden loss of supplies and the second is a gradual tightening of supply.
I believe the second is more likely, but it has to be modified by the
reality of the structure of our oil companies.
They may well not be allowed to compete in the market against their
overseas principles.

I think the gradual tightening of supply will be seen as a longer period
between tanker arrivals at our refineries, causing shortages for some
service stations.
Did you notice how a refinery problem led to a shortage of premium petrol ?
That led to some shortages of unleaded petrol and even for
one service station running right out of everything.

That is how I see it affecting us, not an instant collapse but higher
prices and more frequent shortages. This will be aggravated by the
oil companies having difficulty placing orders for crude oil.

It looks increasingly like ethanol will be abandoned as a fuel due
to the food diversion problem and the recent realisation that it is
not as efficient as previously thought.

The government will have no choice but to introduce rationing.
The new Access card that will replace the Medicare card with its
smart chip will be the solution. Each owner is issued a ration for
the year and when you buy petrol you swipe the card and the litres
are deducted from your ration. You can sell part of your ration via the system.

Electric cars, yes a problem for the grid network, but could be offset
to some extent by solar recharging. New designs of solar cells now
cost $1 per watt. Still if you drive to work the sun has set by the
time you get home.
Public transport is the only real solution.
Trolley buses to heavy rail stations being the best and cheapest solution.

Interstate rail should immediately be duplicated and electrified.
It is probably the most important infrastructure project need in Australia.

They say that history repeats its self, anyone seeing the horse and cart making a comeback! I can see it now! The GT racing cart, with twin overhead gee,gee,s and with pin stripping down the sides.

As population grows, the life we all take for granted, is going to hit the wall hard! When oil runs out, the pressure of it all will lead to the next big war! Remember the ten rats in the box! get ready!

We need 3 billion to disappear right now, and this will give the rest time to find and perfect the appropriate technologies.

Don't jump to conclusions! I don't like it any more than you do, but the facts are staring you in the face! 6 billion people, running out of resources, and it goes on and on. I am starting to think that the people running this world have lead us a-stray.........Thanks alot!

They say that history repeats its self, anyone seeing the horse and cart making a comeback! I can see it now! The GT racing cart, with twin overhead gee,gee,s and with pin stripping down the sides

Gargoil-what are your thoughts on electricity from other sources than hydrocarbon?-that is from hydropower, solar furnaces, nuclear, tidal, wave and wind, coupled with energy efficiency programmes to reduce waste of energy. Also on storing in power in fuel cells and pumping water for hydro-power back up hill at non-peak load times?

Granted there is no free lunch in power generation, but, as easy oil is going to run out and we must cut carbon emissions, sooner rather than later we are going to have to move from a hydrocarbon-powered civilisation to an alternative source of transportable energy for travel.

Henry VIII;
I think fuel cells have too many losses and there are a lot of problem with lifetime and expense.
I think geothermal and solar thermal with heat storage for night load
are the most hopeful prospects.
Peak uranium will occur in 40 years so that is not a long term solution.
Tide and wind can contribute, but contribute is the operative word.

Thats fine for electricity, even though we have a lot of coal, however
as we are flogging it off overseas it will not last long past peak
coal around 2035 or so.

For vehicles, it will either be gas provided we stop flogging it off
to China and Japan, or electric cars in some form.
A pipeline from the NW shelf will be needed.

Grid connected cars are being researched.
One suggestion is main roads with power pickup and batteries to reach
the main road.
However a system such as this will require perhaps doubling the number
of power stations.

In the longer term a more practical suggestion is bicycles to public transport.

I apologise for linking to an external site, but this article (http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/3657#more) is extremely relevant.

If you think the threat of Peak Oil to Australia is overrated or far enough in the future that we've got time to come up with alternatives, think again.

The only thing we can be sure of if we accept peak oil is upon us, is that if alternatives and solutions are not arrived at soon enough, the peak will force us to change our lifestyle drastically whether prepared or not. Humans have generally been pretty good in adapting to their environment and no reason to think this new challenge is beyond us.

Someone mentioned we can power an electric vehicle using solar and this would help with shorter distances but not really a solution for truck haulage. But a good idea if we have to move to a more locally focussed existence. I read somewhere about a fellow in Victoria (near Castlemaine I think) who could get about 100km with each solar charge up.

There is no doubt that we will have to start living locally - growing, eating and working - maybe back to a cottage industry approach in some cases. Any fuel we can conserve can be used for the larger manufacturing and mass production for goods that are deemd essential.

Again I harp back to the issue of sustainable populations, a factor that has to be considerd in the long term so we can adapt to these challenges.

It would be easier to start again with a clean slate and design better towns to fit in with these new variables, but obviously we can't. There is no reason why a city like Sydney could not produce most of its food on the outer farmlands instead of putting it under housing. Perhaps people might be encouraged to move to smaller centres to decentralise some of the larger urban areas.

Nuclear is only a short term solution, we need to look long term and be willing to make changes (maybe even drastic ones).

Dead right Pelican,
Everything will be local.
The days of the long distance truck are finished.
It is absolutely imperative that we reestablish the rail network and
electrify it.

Did you look at the link suggested by commuter ?
Here it is again;

(http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/3657#more)

Anyone discussing this subject should read it and digest.
Frankly it scared me when I read it. We simply cannot do all that is
necessary in the short time available. I doubt we can link the gas
pipelines in WA to the pipeline in SA in the time.
It will take that long to do the environmental study etc.
I will bet that environmental studies will be removed from the legislation.

Here is my plan for a energy short Australia.
Immediate cancellation of contracts to sell overseas Coal & Gas.
Cessation of all road funding.
Duplication and electrification of rail lines.
Reopen a significant number of branch lines.
Ban truck transport where rail or shipping exists.
Ban interstate truck transport except for very wide loads.
In cities build very large car parking at railway stations.
Restrict CBD car parks to service vehicles.
Introduce shift work in city offices to spread peak commuting.
Introduce a star system of city development and have market gardens
between the arms of the stars with rail and feeder trolley buses along the arms of the stars.
Possible in parts of western Sydney.

To be realistic the politicians would be too frightened to do this
until it was too late.

How about your suggestions ?

What a fantastic thing it is to havbe embraced one of these so-called "soft technologies"! A few months ago I followed up an advertisement in The Courier-Mail weekend shopper for an electric bicycle. The one I purchased was not top of the range, but it was a solid machine with gears to ease the pedal-powered aspect of each journey and a battery which has proven certainly adequate on journeys of approximately 25km round trip. I pedal and get fitness, but have electric-assist when I have to go up hill and several of my routine weekly journeys are now made by electric bicycle rather than car with reduction in fuel bill, increased health and fitness, and the option of bicycle journeys that are enticing, even on a somewhat hot Queensland summer day, rather than off-putting because of the thought of having to make this middle-aged body peddle up those steeper inclines that inevitably punctuate journeys otherwise comprised of gently undulating terrain. This technology i have spent a small investment on has paid for itself in no time in saved fuel bills and helped me lose weight as well. I urge others to explore embracing these soft technologies mentioned in this article, even if they are still "daggy"!

Bazz I did read that article thanks and I imagine you are right - not many politicians courageous enough to make the hard decisions. Posted below a couple of interesting sites on this issue after a Google search. The first link presents some interesting ideas.

http://www.communitysolution.org/
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Dunc, I like the sound of your bike. I might have to get one as I live on the top of a very steep hill (well my middle aged body thinks it is steep!)

*To be realistic the politicians would be too frightened to do this
until it was too late.*

Well luckily they are, or we'd have more politicians peeing huge
amounts of money up against walls, on hairbrain schemes at taxpayers
expense. We've always had all these people who think that they
can predict the future, the law of unitended consequences comes
to play and the whole thing lands up in one big mess. Best to
just let the market sort it out.

Bazz, I don't think you understand how Woodside operate. They
are busy spending 12 billion$ on expanding their facilities.
Now go down to your local bank branch and ask them what kind of
guarantees you need, for them to lend you 12 billion. I can
assure you that you won't get the money, unless you have some
customers signed up for 30 years or so. Woodside are no different.

If ES customers want that gas, they are free to sign on the dotted
line with one of the oilers developing the NW shelf and commit
to buying large volumes of gas for the next 30 years. Otherwise
that gas will be sold to those who will sign, or those fields will
never be developed. Thats the reality.

WEll Yabby,
Read the article ?
The arithmetic is quite simple so you can check the effect on supply
yourself. All the input numbers are available.
>We've always had all these people who think that they
>can predict the future, the law of unitended consequences comes
>to play and the whole thing lands up in one big mess.

No doubt there will be unintended consequences, but the market works
fine while there is a production response to higher prices.
Why is it with a four times increase in price there is no more
production and prices still climbing ?
The market mechanism can only work when production can be increased.

No one really knows how long it will take to transition to an alternative energy regime.
So doesn't it make sense to husband the resources we have
rather than wait till they are depleting. After all the Chinese said
they will burn all their coal and then burn ours !

The oil majors are spending increased amounts of money in search and
yet the finds are getting smaller. On the record Australia has been
very poor in oil search results.
We are using many times the amount of oil we find.
When we come up against the world shortage of crude oil then we will
develop the gas fields for our own use.

BTW, have you noticed that service stations now have especially made
labels to put on pumps that are empty ? Previously they just used to
turn the pump off and stick a piece of paper on the pump.
I only buy petrol about once a fortnight but every time I have been in
the last few months there are always several pumps with the yellow labels on them.
They say it is because of a refinery problem with premium petrol.
This has been going on for months and one service station in Sydney
ran right out of everything a week or so ago.
Am I being paranoid ?
Or is this as we have been told, one of the symptoms of tightening supply ? Hmmmm.

Bazz, yes I read the article and you overlook many factors, which change
the whole state of play and outcome.

What we have at present is a shortage of oil, based on nationalism.
Russia, Venezuela, Iran and a host of others, basically got rid of the
Oil majors and their technology and nationalised their oil industries.

How much oil remains to be discovered in these countries, we just don’t
know. I note that there have been some good finds in Brazil recently.

Who supplies us now is basically irrelevant. What the whole thing
will come down to is price. If we can afford to buy 200-300$ oil and
other nations can’t, then we will get the oil.

At those sorts of prices, consumers might finally get serious about
consuming less. 100$ oil seems to be having little effect, so its still
too cheap. There are still people buying V8s, people are flying more
then ever before, oil wastage is still absolutaly enormous. In America,
people still drive to their Starbucks for a coffee, seemingly too lazy
to make their own.

Just look around you, we still waste huge amounts of energy every
day, that includes oil and coal. Only higher prices will change that,
but higher prices will also bring in new technologies.

I gather that something like 60% of households still have electric hot
water systems, despite Govt subsidies and despite solar water heaters
working like a charm. Perhaps if power is 2-3 times more expensive
people will rethink.

The market will work far better then all your taxpayer funded rules
and regulations that you have dreamed up.

Subsidies for solar and other energy efficiencies will go a long way in helping us to change habits of a lifetime but there is a risk that those who can least afford to make the changeover will incur the higher power costs down the track, despite the will they may not have the way.

I watched, for the first time the other day a film called 'Who Killed the Electric Car'. Very interesting insight into the recalling and destruction by GM of all the leased EV1 prototypes. This corresponded with the turnabout by California to aim for zero emissions policy in relation to transport. The electric car was working and some of the backroom deals are a bit of a worry.

How are we to make the necessary changes if business interests once again influence the hard choices that will have to be made for a sustainable future and a future without oil?

Anyway see the DVD if you can it is interesting stuff.

*'Who Killed the Electric Car'. Very interesting insight into the recalling and destruction by GM of all the leased EV1 prototypes.*

So who killed GM? I don't know if you are aware of it, but they
are not far short of being technically bankrupt, whilst Toyota,
with their hybrid cars, are booming and even being offered
500 million $ by the Aus Govt to build them in Australia.

Even large companies like GM cannot ignore consumers, who hold
all the cards today.

Yabby wrote;

How much oil remains to be discovered in these countries, we just don’t
know. I note that there have been some good finds in Brazil recently.

Well, they do have a very good idea how much is likely to be discovered.
What you do not seem to have taken into account is that no super giants
are being discovered since the 1970s, all that gets discovered now are
midrange fields at best.
One recent discovery would if developed instantly be able to supply the
whole world for six hours. It is the rate of depletion that is going on
and the rate of discovery that does not match.
Currently we are hanging on because the higher price is cutting back
in some of the poorer countries.
Production has been flat for four years now, but how long before we
run out of poorer countries ?

Electric hot water heaters ? We have a liquid fuels problem not
an electricity problem.
However I am sure we will flog off our gas for the holy dollar
without a thought for the future.
The politicians are simply too lily livered to do something that
unpopular. I note that Peter Garrett ignored the topic in a recent
TV program, they simply don't want to hear the words peak oil.

Suggestd reading, Twilight in the Desert, Matthew Simmons and
Beyond Oil by Kenneth Deffeyes.
The first is pretty heavy going but the second is an easier read.

A quote from Deffeyes book;
Anyone who believes that expotential growth can go on forever in a
finite world is either a madman or an economist.

I can see Yabby that you are neither but you show all signs of being
a politician, hi !

"Anyone who believes that expotential growth can go on forever in a
finite world is either a madman or an economist."

That is one of the best quotes I've seen Bazz. In a few words it says it all.

*Anyone who believes that expotential growth can go on forever in a
finite world is either a madman or an economist.*

Oh I know that, I just don’t stress or panic about it, thats all.

If the world even now can't solve the problem of an ever increasing
population, then all the rest is pissing in the breeze. Nature
will sort it out in the end, usually with a crash. We’ll get back
to population levels that are sustainable.

Expecting the rest of the world, including China and India, to
all start consuming like we are, then the wheels will fall off
the cart somewhere along the line. So be it.

I don't think the Govt needs to do much, the market will sort it
out. Yup, it will be those who can afford oil who get to use it.
The problem is that this whole story could well bankrupt the West
and make the Middle East, Russia etc, amazingly rich. We are
already seeing signs of that.

As for Australia, well we are in a very fortunate position really,
compared to most.

When oil hits 2-300$, we might start to take notice. We could
go gas, or gas to oil, or coal to oil, so plenty of options. Look
around you, people could halve their fuel consumption if they
tried, or if it was expensive enough. At the moment its clearly
not yet an issue.

Personally I have enough land to grow enough canola to keep
all my wheels turning for the rest of my lifetime. I’m not
doing it yet, as the numbers don’t stack up, but when they do,
That’s what I’ll do.

The point is, 100 years ago, people lived quite comfortably
on a local village basis, without huge oil consumption.

If needbe, that is what we can go back to. Its those stuck
in the middle of large cities, that will have a problem, for
without energy, they are basically knackered. Even their
sewerage systems will collapse, let alone their food supply etc.