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The Forum > Article Comments > Planning for peak oil - what it will mean > Comments

Planning for peak oil - what it will mean : Comments

By Sandra Kanck, published 21/2/2008

Can the existing population be sustained at current levels of affluence or will peak oil mean lower standards of living?

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Henry VIII;
I think fuel cells have too many losses and there are a lot of problem with lifetime and expense.
I think geothermal and solar thermal with heat storage for night load
are the most hopeful prospects.
Peak uranium will occur in 40 years so that is not a long term solution.
Tide and wind can contribute, but contribute is the operative word.

Thats fine for electricity, even though we have a lot of coal, however
as we are flogging it off overseas it will not last long past peak
coal around 2035 or so.

For vehicles, it will either be gas provided we stop flogging it off
to China and Japan, or electric cars in some form.
A pipeline from the NW shelf will be needed.

Grid connected cars are being researched.
One suggestion is main roads with power pickup and batteries to reach
the main road.
However a system such as this will require perhaps doubling the number
of power stations.

In the longer term a more practical suggestion is bicycles to public transport.
Posted by Bazz, Saturday, 23 February 2008 12:31:37 PM
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I apologise for linking to an external site, but this article (http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/3657#more) is extremely relevant.

If you think the threat of Peak Oil to Australia is overrated or far enough in the future that we've got time to come up with alternatives, think again.
Posted by commuter, Monday, 25 February 2008 8:39:31 AM
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The only thing we can be sure of if we accept peak oil is upon us, is that if alternatives and solutions are not arrived at soon enough, the peak will force us to change our lifestyle drastically whether prepared or not. Humans have generally been pretty good in adapting to their environment and no reason to think this new challenge is beyond us.

Someone mentioned we can power an electric vehicle using solar and this would help with shorter distances but not really a solution for truck haulage. But a good idea if we have to move to a more locally focussed existence. I read somewhere about a fellow in Victoria (near Castlemaine I think) who could get about 100km with each solar charge up.

There is no doubt that we will have to start living locally - growing, eating and working - maybe back to a cottage industry approach in some cases. Any fuel we can conserve can be used for the larger manufacturing and mass production for goods that are deemd essential.

Again I harp back to the issue of sustainable populations, a factor that has to be considerd in the long term so we can adapt to these challenges.

It would be easier to start again with a clean slate and design better towns to fit in with these new variables, but obviously we can't. There is no reason why a city like Sydney could not produce most of its food on the outer farmlands instead of putting it under housing. Perhaps people might be encouraged to move to smaller centres to decentralise some of the larger urban areas.

Nuclear is only a short term solution, we need to look long term and be willing to make changes (maybe even drastic ones).
Posted by pelican, Monday, 25 February 2008 10:25:47 AM
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Dead right Pelican,
Everything will be local.
The days of the long distance truck are finished.
It is absolutely imperative that we reestablish the rail network and
electrify it.

Did you look at the link suggested by commuter ?
Here it is again;

(http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/3657#more)

Anyone discussing this subject should read it and digest.
Frankly it scared me when I read it. We simply cannot do all that is
necessary in the short time available. I doubt we can link the gas
pipelines in WA to the pipeline in SA in the time.
It will take that long to do the environmental study etc.
I will bet that environmental studies will be removed from the legislation.

Here is my plan for a energy short Australia.
Immediate cancellation of contracts to sell overseas Coal & Gas.
Cessation of all road funding.
Duplication and electrification of rail lines.
Reopen a significant number of branch lines.
Ban truck transport where rail or shipping exists.
Ban interstate truck transport except for very wide loads.
In cities build very large car parking at railway stations.
Restrict CBD car parks to service vehicles.
Introduce shift work in city offices to spread peak commuting.
Introduce a star system of city development and have market gardens
between the arms of the stars with rail and feeder trolley buses along the arms of the stars.
Possible in parts of western Sydney.

To be realistic the politicians would be too frightened to do this
until it was too late.

How about your suggestions ?
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 25 February 2008 3:42:52 PM
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What a fantastic thing it is to havbe embraced one of these so-called "soft technologies"! A few months ago I followed up an advertisement in The Courier-Mail weekend shopper for an electric bicycle. The one I purchased was not top of the range, but it was a solid machine with gears to ease the pedal-powered aspect of each journey and a battery which has proven certainly adequate on journeys of approximately 25km round trip. I pedal and get fitness, but have electric-assist when I have to go up hill and several of my routine weekly journeys are now made by electric bicycle rather than car with reduction in fuel bill, increased health and fitness, and the option of bicycle journeys that are enticing, even on a somewhat hot Queensland summer day, rather than off-putting because of the thought of having to make this middle-aged body peddle up those steeper inclines that inevitably punctuate journeys otherwise comprised of gently undulating terrain. This technology i have spent a small investment on has paid for itself in no time in saved fuel bills and helped me lose weight as well. I urge others to explore embracing these soft technologies mentioned in this article, even if they are still "daggy"!
Posted by Dunc, Monday, 25 February 2008 7:15:52 PM
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Bazz I did read that article thanks and I imagine you are right - not many politicians courageous enough to make the hard decisions. Posted below a couple of interesting sites on this issue after a Google search. The first link presents some interesting ideas.

http://www.communitysolution.org/
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Dunc, I like the sound of your bike. I might have to get one as I live on the top of a very steep hill (well my middle aged body thinks it is steep!)
Posted by pelican, Monday, 25 February 2008 8:31:35 PM
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