A Liberal rout will require a measure of courage that has been wanting in the electorate for some time.

Somehow, Mr Howard has convinced many people that there is a connection between himself and sound economic governance. He convinced a few voters that there was a connection between 9-11 and Iraq. He convinced a few voters that there was a connection between terr'rism and refugees. He convinced a few voters that we should join the war-for-profit gang:

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18261.htm

Now that the facts are in, you would think that the moral outrage would wipe the incumbents like a dirty arse. Ah, but Mr Howard seems to have convinced many voters that there is a connection between mendacity and good economic governance. Only the best liars make the best CEOs of Australia Inc.

Makes sense!

Do you think there is any Anzac spirit left? Do you wonder if it was ever there in the first place?

Last evening I was driving home, listening to ABC's PM programme, with the lead story Mr Rudd daring JH to call the election immediately. Anyhow, in conjunction with this, the female reporter from Darwin (where JH was yesterday) had this to say. "If the reception Mr Howard received during his visit to a Darwin Shopping Centre is anything to go by, he won't be calling the election anytime soon" or words to that effect. At that point we heard JH being stridently abused by some bloke, and a little later by another, and some time later by a small chorus of "protestors".

This surprised me as only the night before we'd seen JH being mobbed by welcoming crowds of aboriginal people at Hermannsburg Community outside Alice. An Aside; Hermannsburg is TWO Communities; one is for bludgers, the other for workers. They were in Ntaria, the workers one. Still, it seemed "possible" that a number of white activists may have ambushed him in Darwin, so I really didn't think too much about the PM story.

An hour later, watching SBS TV news there was also a report on the PM in Darwin. At the same shopping centre, but very different. As at H'Burg, he was being mobbed, his hand shaken, Aborigines and non-aborigines rushing to have their photos taken; even a guy looking like your standard skateboarder (!) went up and bear-hugged Howard. (I kid you not). It was a bit like rock-star stuff. The lone loudmouth from the ABC report was there of course, and another as JH left, but the totally false impression the ABC had tried to present was clearly destroyed.

This has made it oh so clear. The shrill Howard-haters are far outnumbered by those who respect the bloke. Whether this respect will translate to votes is not certain, but I'd say it's very likely.

Any betting person should be taking the very generous odds on a Coalition Victory...NOW! Cheers.

I mostly concur with the author.

While Rudd is ahead by 9.5 points at the moment all that is required is a 4.25 point turn around. This phoney campaign so far has only targetted the fringes.

I do not agree Rudd is cautious in the area of Policy. Why?
Remember the faux pas on withdrawal from Iraq?
Remember his confusion on the meaning of productivity?

While these things in themselves are probably meaningless in terms of changing peoples votes they do indicate a fairly loose understanding of his Party Policy Position and indeed of economics generally. They indicate sloppiness not caution.

Foreign Affairs is a policy void for Rudd. He has only ever stated a position on Iraq. Nothing on Afghanistan, the Middle East, the US, our near Asian neighbours, Japan, China and Korea nor Europe. He hasn't indicated any position on the UN or whether he will follow a bilateral or multilateral approach.

His Health Policy has all the appearance of being made on the run and in essence is demonstratebly ineffective. He is merely throwing an extra $2 Billion at the states 75 hospitals over 3 years. While Howard has targeted one hospital Rudd's policy is seen as a mere political counter, hoping to capitalise on Howard's seeming preferential treatment of one marginal electorate.


As for the grubby little episode in NY. That will bite over a longer period. How? Who forgets Malcolm's trousers or Alexanders's fishnets or Bob's womanising. While the media have largely glossed over the events in the lap dancing club...I reckon just a mention of Rudd and New York in the same sentence, people will automatically make the connection and smirk in a fashion reminiscent of many faces of Benny Hill. It will be Rudd's lasting legacy regardless of whether he's PM on not. Unkind ... I know ... but such is the lot of hypocrisy.

Though as a retired cockie who was mostly his own boss, as a bush sportsman also learnt a bit about fair play.

There is also a bush term about a boss holding the big end of the stick. That is why it is so surprising to an old bush thinker that workers have let the growing corporate culture have both strong hands on the fair-go stick.

Also these days we never hear a word about arbitration, at one time a major part of the fairplay system.

Have faith in us, is now the swansong of the Howard government. But as one who has listened to grizzles from workers and shearers in country bars - it makes one wonder about the long term future?

The television shots of John Howard in shopping malls are telling, the believers are given very short views while the screaming ferals are starred.However much he is tested, John Howard keeps his dignity.
It is the difference between the sides,on Liberal sides the quietness is there but the quiet ones will vote for Howard's party.On Labor's sides the screamers are loud but secretly ,will they put Rudd in?
The more the polls favour Kevin Rudd, the more he struts and flirts and flutters his eyelashes at the everpresent camera.
Are the public taken in by this Labor cabaret? If so ,they deserve what they get.

Let our biases run free! mine are well known but I believe what I post.
Rudd looks to be unbeatable, Howard has tried most of his tricks and failed but what if?
God forbid but what if APEC is targeted?
Gee please no but what if it is?
Some, unwise in my view unions are already throwing mud at Rudd.
I am not totally convinced in a watered down IR policy's but not workchoices next stage surely?
Who will lead us in the next 12 months as America leaves Iraq?
They will, task not achieved ,how will we handle it.
It will be Kevin Rudd, sure it could implode but who truly thinks it will ?
Howard is gone truly even if he won he is gone age and this hard fight has ended conservatives lack of future planning he can not beat time and it is his time to go.