"Despite the criticisms levelled at Paul Bremer, his decisions to dissolve the Iraqi army and ban the Ba’ath political Party were both right"

I absolutely disagree with this assessment. Disbanding the Iraqi army removed the onl realistic apparatus to maintaining some form of stability and border control in Iraq.

Abruptly turning hundreds of thousands of trained soldiers onto the street, depriving them of there only income and insulting what professional pride they had left simply created a huge reservoir of angry young men trained to kill.

This, more than anything else, created the backbone of the insurgency. It was an incredible mistake by Bremer. The army could and should have been retained and merely re trained for its new role.

For America, it cannot be allowed to become another Vietnam and throw in the hatred shown towards Iran & Syria, what do you get a war based on religion sweeping across the Islamic World. Take a close look at these countries, Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan and in the Gaza & West Bank and tell me that we don't have wars based on religion.

Since the Second World War, most wars involving the United States and its allies have been based on two facts, Political Beliefs and Religion.

Why is Iraq another failure in the making for the West. Simple, Israel with Americas support fail to create a Palestinian State because they did not want to deal with Arafat. Now you have Hamas on one side and Fatah on the other, never shall the two live in peace.

Todays quick quiz....how long did it take after the american revolution to create a constitution and unite the country?

The history told us, Iraq did not work; Iraq was failed state due to the cost of millions of lives. I am not supporting the USA occupation, but I fully support the new suggestion to divide Iraq to 3 Part, may be free Kurdistan, Sunni region and Shiite territory.

Kurds suffered enough under the totalitarian regime, Kurds faced genocide ( anfal ) , and they deserve to create their own country on their own land . supporting Freedom Kurdistan is a moral , rational and humanitarian obligation to all people wherever they live in this world.

The best way and the quickest way to withdraw coalition forces in Iraq, is to let Iraqi people to live free without interference from outside.

International community must stop the intervention of Turkey, Saudi Arabia , Syria and Iran, and let people choose what they want. No doubt the Kurds and Shiite want to establish their own countries not just federalism in Iraq.
Iraq is a myth country. It’s not a holy doctrine to keep Iraq in any cost… enough pan-Arabism, enough totalitarianism , its time for the largest nation on earth ( Kurds) to live in their own country.

Sasha

Khatab,

"The more you dig the less likely you listen to someone telling you you are digging in the wrong place"

First, destroying the Baathist regime and dismantling the Iraqi army was among strategic errors why we are where we are today and why Iran became so powerful overnight.

Splitting Iraq into 3 nations as per your scenario means the following:

- A Kurdish independant state: means that soon south of Turkey will be declared as 'occupied territory of North Kurdistan'
- A shiite state means an 'Iranian Iraq'. a guaranteed extension of the Shiaa crescent into the Arabian gulf.
- A sunni state will be interesting to its western neighbour (Jordan) and most of all southern (Kuwait) since they used to be one of the same. How exactly is that 'stabilising' the GCC?

Where are you taking us?

As Khatab Sabir basically says, there never was or is an "iraq". It is a Western creation for people the West feel are not capable of looking after themselves.

There are three basic groups today and we all know what they are. And all three hate the other two.

To continue the fiction that they can unite is like asking Australians to create a country with New Zealand (acceptable, except for sport, as most of them live in Bondi anyway) and Indonesia (not acceptable in any way).

Why do any of us expect these people to accept it?

To Southerner. Haven't you been listening, watching or reading? It is and has been a copy of Vietnam even before they went there. History tells us that.

If you don't think so pleae tell us what country has the USA ever occupied and then left. If they did leave did they "win". Did the people there "win".

It's too late mate. A civil war is simply one part of the population attacking another all day every day. Bitter enemies to the death. Can you say that isn't the case in what we call Iraq?

I'll have a go Grey. No idea how long to create the constituion but I'll say never (it's still changing I believe) and it has never been united and never will. Except if you count words on paper. Even today we still have the South vs the North and never the twain shall meet. Score my answer please?

Pegasus
History will tell you that the west has never won any war in the Middle East. They supported Dictators like S H because the Iranians over threw the Shah of Iran who was the lap dog of the United States.

Than they had no option but to remove S H, because the man was becoming a threat to their interest. They should have engage the Arab League of Nations in his removal. Why not, OIL.

As to the future of Iraq, it will simply become another Iran dominated by the Shia.

To answer your question, Iraq only became another Vietnam for the Amercians because they want the country to adopt western values. Oil is the driving force behind their decision.

FINE FOR THE SHIITES AND KURDS

I'd hazaard a guess that the author is Shiite or Kurdish judging by his lack of concern for the position of minority (oil poor) Sunnis in his proposed Iraqi Federation.

Basically the Shiites are sitting on most of the proven oil areas in Iraq and the Kurds are on most of the other oil areas. With no viable tourism or agricultural industries in occupied Iraq the Sunnis would be left with little to do except practice Palestinian camp style terrorism.

So the Sunnis miss out - one reason why they are fighting the US/Shiite dominateed status quo so much.

The author mentions Yugoslavia in passing as though it is a model. He forgets that Yugoslavia was united by Stalinist communists (including the Red Army in 1945) in a process more severe than the Baathist takeover. The later religious based genocidal civil war amongst the fragment states of Yugoslavia should concentrate the author's mind a bit.

So the author's suggestion is a recipe for continuing civil war from which Shiites and Kurds might temporarily benefit however it will probably be the US, UK, Turkey and (maybe) Iran who will ultimately win the oil prizes of Iraq.

Pete
http://spyingbadthings.blogspot.com/2006/06/oil-unspeakable-foreign-policy-factor.html

and a supplementary to Grey's question; how long after the French Revolution did it take for democracy(sorry Demos) to win out in France?

Southerner. History also shows that the USA has only won two wars. One against itself. Their Civil war. And you could call the Atom bombing a win I guess. So two max.

I am quite aware of most of the dictators the US has supported and if you must follow the "USA had to remove Hussein" then why haven't they removed all dictators that work against their interests?

I'm rather confused about your Vietnam response mate. Initially you said Iraq cannot be allowed to become another Vietnam and now you concede it has become so. I only disagree about when it started. You seem to be of both opinions that it is and isn't. Which is your actual opinion?

I'd also point out I didn't ask why it became a Civil War. I stated that in my first post. 3 groups that hate each other. Not sure why you wrote this to me as I didn't ask such a question. If you want the reason for the war against Iraq of course oil has much to do with it. But it doesn't explain the timing as nothing has changed regarding oil. It was always there and only since the Shah went on long term holiday (terminal now) has access been a problem. So this invasion could have been any time. They just needed a reason people would believe. I also think Bush has given the real reason as to the timig. First of course 9/11 which allowed him to attack anyone he cared to name. But mainly because of this statement which he made seriously early on : "Saddam tried to kill my Dad". Seems petty but do look up the video of that staement. He was deadly serious.

The future of Iraq is that there will be 3 countries, or States if we compare with us. They cannot and will not ever work and live together. Like Victorians and NSW men. Jest, before you jump out of your trees.

The dream of Islam of ever regaining its self-respect or imposing their political and military might ruling the rest of the world is gradually fading away.

Islam had a real window of opportunity post 9/11. It was really a chance for a final showdown: “us against them” – Islam against the great Satan: the West.

But alas the true colours of Islam won the day. The world watched an angry dragon… without a head.

A ruined empire divided against itself.

Destruction for the sake of destruction is the new motto of Islamists…and the game now continues in “overtime”.

Islam cannot accept defeat.

Islam will never be a united front, one house, one nation, because of the hatred, fears, and insecurities that run in their blood.

Sectarian wars, terrorism, and political assassinations has always been part of Islam.

Especially with the concentration of Shiat in relation to Sunnis in that region, no borders will be strong enough to ever keep them from killing each other.

What about the Iraqi Christians who could not escape this mess?

Who is going to guarantee their protection in a divided Iraq?

The Christians are the sitting ducks waiting for their final slaughter.

The greatest mistake Bush made was to act irrationally (on his emotions) and fall into the trap laid by Islamists.

He made things worse by overstaying his welcome in Iraq thinking he could get the job done. Except he did not have a clue what he was getting himself into…

Islam is a sure recipe for disaster - a cancer that needs to be eradicated, or to be radically modified to fit with the rest of the civilised world.

And since Islam thinks the same about the civilised world, we have not a chance for peace, until Jesus returns.

Of course it is an impossible dream. The Iraqi's simply can't get over their tribalism, inherent racism, to build a society.

But why did we think they could?

Arabs have no understanding of liberal society, they are all dictatorships in some form or other.

Geez, I hope the idiots on the far left understand now why the west deals with brutal dictators, since democracy isn't possible for those with such backward values.

Until those in al-Sadr town care about those who aren't in al-Sadr town, and truly care about others, nothing will work.

The US shouldn't be attacked for trying though, as they are fellow humans after all - savagely brainwashed to hate the 'westerner' mabye, but human nonetheless.

The west can never win against cultures that don't respect human rights. Our principals make it so we can't fire back when a terrorist fires at our troops from a crowded marketplace or mosque, and they know this - which is why they do it.

If we destroyed the mosque when this happened, and shot back in the marketplace, propaganda would go their way still because they're people are largely racist intolerant filth.

This isn't their fault, they have all been brainwashed, but it is true.

So, yes an impossible dream as long as we stick to our human rights in dealing with the situation. We should do what Russia does, get all the cameras out of Chechnya, and go and do what one has to in war.

As unfortunate as that may be. I don't know why we should even care anyway, I mean, they should just bomb from the sky any factory or place they suspect of having weapons of mass destruction - like they will likely do in Iran soon.

Let them work it all out, as long as they can't fire western developed missiles at us.

Cowards.

They hate us but want our technology.

Why we allowed ourselves to think instead of the Iraqi people , why as a western people , we think we are knowing the interest of Iraqi people more than them. Why we continuing to give them valuable lectures. More than 80% of Iraqi people hated former Iraqi regime and Iraqi army. They were criminals, they conducted genocide against Kurds and Shiites. They used Chemical weapon against civilians Kurds and Shiites.

Nir Rosen does not want to acknowledge what are the realities in Iraq. He is pro Sunnis and pro Arabic regimes. How he could deny the Anfal Genocide against Kurds. He is supporting the ideology of Al-Qaeda and Baathiest . he is absolutely not talking for the Iraqi people.

If USA not allowed another Vietnam come to view , the best way to settle the Iraq is to divide Iraq to 3 parts. Not make more mess in the region

The idea of Fellow_human it not worth one cent among the majority of Iraqis.
Why he is denying the right of 20 million of Kurds in Turkey, what is wrong if they get their own autonomy, or even independency . Why the Shiites in Iraq not deserve to create their own state. Stop this unproductive theory. Iraqis don’t want the history repeated itself. Turkey just like Iraq, its not normal country, its another sample of unsuccessful country .Turkey or late Ottoman , has launched Genocide against Armenian people and cost 1.5 million. What a shame we cry for the untied Turkey and beloved untied Iraq.

Enough, stop lamentation for Sunnis, for Pan-Arabism, for Extremism and fundamentalism. If we hate USA, if we are against USA hegemony , why we practice our detestation in the cost of Iraqi people ( mainly Kurds and Shiites ).

As freedom people and liberated human being, we must support the Kurdish state, which they banned from it over the history. They are more than 45 millions ,and its time for them to separate from the myth of Iraq , for ever and ever

David Alberto

my master plan for the pacification of the middle east is nearly ready for publication. while i put a few finishing touches, all residents of iran, iraq, lebanon, syria, palestine, and kuwait are instructed to walk in an orderly fashion to the negev desert, and await redistribution instructions.

after i paint new national and ethnic boundaries, they may return to the designated areas by followeng the color-coded arrows and begin living peaceful and productive lives.

i have anticipated the gratitude of the world by having a number of statues of myself ready to be placed in all the main squares of the new capital cities. no further expressions of gratitude are necessary, but if each person will send me a few dollars in a plain brown envelope to defray my expenses, it seems only fair.

the israel question is separate, but steps are underway to move all zionist jews to long island, where their ethnic group is already a majority and long island sound and the east river offer defensible boundaries when they secede from the usa. if indeed they wish to secede.

What is meant, that Iraq is another Vietnam is the day is fast approach when the US, the British, Australia etc will run like a momgrel dog with their tails between their legs.

That Islam is dying, is the dream of fools. Why, it is the fastest growing Religion, particularly in Australia.

Last but not least, it is clear to me that racism is alive and well in this country.

By the way I am a Christian and a supporter of the Palestinian People and their right to live in the State of Palestine with East Jerusalem as their Capital.

Demos, while your post was kind of tongue_in_cheek, there was a lot of wisdom in those words_of_'jest'.

The point is, all the people groups you mention are 'tribal'. They are held together by common history,religion and kinship.

The simple fact is, tribal societies only get along where they don't feel threatened by others. In the middle east this has always involved treaties, alliances and power balances. Even a cursory reading of the intrigues and goings on in early Islamic Arabia, will show this, but it's more than apparent also from the Old Testament.

Every single person in such societies is linked by blood to the rest or is a foreigner/alien, known to the others.

Any idea of Western democracy or 'human rights' does not even flicker on the horizon, except possibly with some western educated young people who have no clout at the end of the day. (except in Israel it appears)

It's difficult even to speak of 'solutions' in such areas, because they will always be interpreted by the tribal/clan filter in terms of tribal interest.

When it comes to "Solutions" the most important question is -solution to 'what'?
In reality, when we speak of solutions, we MEAN that which suits OUR interests, be they oil, and/or economic security.

REAL SOLUTION.....
The real "solution" does not exist except on a personal level. We are allied with forces bigger than our individual selves, by geography,culture and history. Whether we like it or not, at some time, we will be faced with the sombre decision of to what degree we will participate in those factors, against others who share a different value/cultural/religious system, (even if that 'religion' is the lack of one)-who are a threat to us.

For me,

1Therefore, I urge you, brothers, in view of God's mercy, to offer your bodies as living sacrifices, holy and pleasing to God—...Do not conform any longer to the pattern of this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind. Then you will be able to test and approve what God's will is—his good, pleasing and perfect will. (Romans 12:1-2)

Dear David_Alberto.

There is nothing 'wrong' in principle with Kurdish Independance.

The problems are with alliances and international relations, and with the interests of other countries who 'feel' they would be effected by such a split up.

To me personally, I think it's the best solution. But lets say "Ok.. we divide the country". Lets explore some possible outcomes.

1/ SUNNI's who are oil poor geographically, but who enjoyed power and wealth under Sadaam, will feel 'they stole our oil' and quite probably seek to re-establish the old style regime. WAR.

2/ KURDS are given independance.
a) Turkey feels immediately threatened by the possibility of a 'greater kurdistan' and again WAR.

3/ SHIITES given independance. They ally themselves with Iran, and together (or, a newly armed and trained by Iran)the Shiite population seeks 'payback' or.. they are duped into a proxy war by Iran. WAR.

The next factor which comes into play is. 'How might this effect US'?
(not the USA, but you and me as well as the UK, USA, RUSSIA, etc etc)

So, while I'm quite open to the idea of Kurds 'going for it' and seeking to carve out a place in the sun for themselves, they must realize that they have to either go it alone, (and take the consequences) or..form an alliance with a 'great and powerful friend' (which could even be Russia)
Apart from that..'nothing ever happens'.. and such arrangements ALWAYS involve the "what's in it for us" factor. Which has the consequence of other non allied 'great and powerful nations' asking "Hmm..if Russia and the Kurds get together, this could be BAD for us.. so.. we will support the XYZ group against them". This explains the USA support for Afghan Mujahideen (against Russia) and now their own war with them. (would it surprise you if Russia now helped the Taliban ?:)

...annnnnnnd.. so it goes on. Full circle, same old same old.
Who is the 'good guy' and who is the 'bad guy' ? well.. no one really. People and countries are just looking out for themselves. Gee..I never saw that coming :)

Dear all

I read this article carefully and your comments too. Something is new for me. And that’s, recently realized Iraq can not last long . And if the willing to do, it will cost more and more life…

What is the solution:

According to international law and international institutions Kurds were victim of old policy and they have been in very bad situation. Including Genocide and ethnic cleansing (particularly in the city of Kirkuk ). They entitled to obtain their freedom on their occupied land.

EU and USA put more pressure on Turkey to not interfere in Iraq, and do more reforms for its population of Kurds ( more than 20 million )
Regarding Sunnis, they are never look forward in general, always look at their past. The Kurds and Shiite , can give the share of their oil for 20-30 years until they can managing themselves or even can join with Jordan.

Shiite , its not become an Iranian state, they can even become Secular country if International community supporting them in some way. They are not fanatic, and not so religious , except a teenage like Muqtada as Sadr.. the majority of Shiite are listing to Sistani than nayone else

Yes I support the idea, Iraq split to 3 or more part. The most important, Kurds and Turkmen and Christians , must live in a peace in Kurdistan. I know there is one Million Kurds live in Baghdad , but now most of them forced to come to Kurdistan by extremists , mainly Al-Qaeda and Sunnis group

I know Kurdish people been killed (in thousands ) just because they are Kurds. Shiite and Sunnis been killed ( in tens thousand ) probably in hundred thousands just because they are different faction. This situation can not be continue.
Let’s help Iraqi people to settle down

We have to choose one of two
Either to stop violence and stop killing millions more of people
Or continue the bloodshed in Iraq because of the Sake of the interest of ( Turkey, Russia, Iran, Suadia Arabia and so o

THERE IS ONLY THREE TRUE AND REAL WAYS TO STOP GLOBAL WARMING.

ONE, is to put back what we have take from the ground were it was taken from, because the real problem is displacement of the planet.

TWO, is to use plants within industry which can make 99.9 percent of human needs without polluting.

THREE, is to stop the people letting this happen by your so called representatives, to do this
you shall need to represent yourself by this,

The Individual Majority vote Self Government.

Citizens must take control of their future by a non corrupted government system to stop most of the issues involving the homeless, poverty, starvation, slavery, child abuse, corruption, wars and the further destruction of this planet.
This Individual Majority Vote Self Government system of governing shall give citizens full control of their government departments, lives and their future, no governing system under a democracy or communism has ever given citizens anything just taken from them to support the private sector.
This Individual Majority Vote Self Government has been created for citizens as a whole to govern individually all aspects of their government departments within all countries as well as controlling what happens within their country, this means your country will not need the services of your so called representatives.

All individual citizens of a country can submit local and national issues of concern to government departments. Government departments shall then be entered within a debate in alphabetical order to solve issues of concern put forward by the citizens and the private sector. Citizens within a debate will put forward three proposals that may solve a issue of concern. Citizens shall then vote on one proposal they think may solve the issue of concern. This Individual Majority Vote Self government has been created because of the high level of corrupt undemocratic political system we have today.

If citizen do not take control now there will be no future for anyone or anything time to wake up and stop being sheep for time is not on our side anymore,change or perish, your call.

W.C.Realph.
www.selfgovernment.t

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie. We believe that people who run to another country to hide are guttless dogs for not fighting for their people, culture and country. To kill innocent people and children and use their children to kill others Shows how Guttless they really are. Also to run from your country is a disgrace to your culture and people and to try to change the culture within the country that let you in is a disgrace too. Australian men are the best fighters in the world because they care about each other and dont back stab or use others to hide behind. If you wish to kill someone please try to have the gutt's to kill the people that are killing you and the people in government that have cause your problems, but by looking from what has already happen they can kill the innocent. Reality is your your own god and your your own the devil ,all religions have been to be proven fact, so dont blame a book for your wrongs. Bill. www.selfgovernment.tk

David Alberto,

"The idea of Fellow_human it not worth one cent among the majority of Iraqis"

The biggest problem is ideology: that the Arab and Muslim world are looking for the future of democratising Iraq. If the 'democratisation' process will end up being separatism, chaos and civil wars, we will all end up in a worse position.
Drop the ego and be a realist, if you lived for 3 decades in this culture you will understand a lot more of its dynamics.

Inside Iraq, many of the Sunnis and Shiites co-exist and even intermarry. the friction is in the extreme nut cases. On the sunni side, many of the friction is imported from Saudi, yemen, etc.. Just talk to Iraqis as i do.

As for Iraq's future as you want to be, here is the ugly crystal ball/ trickle effect:

Pick up scenario one:
1. Kurds have their own country/ independance.
Step 2: A new conflict erupts with Turkey, Syria, etc.. to create a new country. (for now I will ignore the rise of separatism in central and eastern europe since we now have a precedent)
Step 3: Shiite state in Iraq (oil rich, pro-Iranian).
Step 4: exporting Iranian revolution to the gulf states.
Step 5: Iraqi oil to be re-exploited but Iranian oil companies and entities.
Step 5: a petro Euro market gets established.
Step 6: rise of pro-Iranian movements in most Arab countries.
Step 7: Iran is a now pressuring other weak arab regimes (now that democracy meant separatism, Iranians will be marketing their 'better answer').

I will stop there but step 8 through 12 are ugly as sin.
I did not factor in orchestration by russians and chinese.
I am not a pessimist rather a realist, if you lived there for decades, you can just see the future of every stupid and clever move.
Right now, all moves look to be 'dum and dumer' like the movie.

Peace my friend,

Dear Fellow_Human

I just come back to this article, coincidently , thought for while , about your human and moral Thinking
you are so much contradict even against your principles of Humanity

Human Right Watch ,and many other organization , mentioned with thousand of documents , that the Kurds faced GENOCIDE by Arabic Regime in Iraq…

Hundred of Mass graves been found, still you are digging around your point , which is the HOLLY OF IRAQ.

I think you are not western, or at least you are not free to think freely… might be you are one of Sunnis extremist , or someone do not listen to anyone…

I have been in Iraq for 18 times, each time between 2-8 weeks , depend. I reached the point Iraq can not last long like this, they got different culture, different thinking and different idea.

Stop lecturing us, with precious tutorials… why do u cry for Iraq and Turkey and this much you are against Iran, are you Sunnis or ?

Stop lecturing people with international relations and Russia stand.
You must understand 7 million Kurds ( 99.9% of them ) want to separate form Iraq peacefully, Mr. Human body. Are u Sunnis, you were benefited from Iraq Regime

Yes your mess ideas , not equal half of the Cent…

Sasha,

Kurds can have autonomy and human rights under a united Iraq.
I can see your resorted to the infamous "99.9%" because you belong to the separatism agenda.
We can agree to disagree. As usual, only history will prove what 'worth a cent' and what's not.

Peace,