Okay there will be the loss of a place in which to practice Australia-New Zealand’s Colonialism, but Mr Downer’s petulance may wain with benefit to his heart. Some people will drown a number will suffer but we say who will come here and we have said no.
Groups of good character and empathetic concern will establish. Like the efforts against our migration policy so maybe children will accepted , on transit visas, though the Israeli’s claim even children can be terrorists. Useful though a medal or two in the honours may be indicative to the people of Governemnt concern. More thought is needed particularly the electoral appeal, after all a Tongan child or any Pacific Islander is an appealing sight and the sympathy vote might be large. Care. No I mean not care, caution.
After all in this neo conservative world all must compete and have forward vision. The Pacific people should have made plans years ago not depend on the charity of others after all no one expects Governments to look after the broods of others.
If they sink think of the home effort needed. The real estate loss on the foreshores of Sydney harbour not to forget Melbourne, Yarra spillage. The Brisbane River large and more. No we have our own concerns. In the immediate an election no time to be committing many $ for out of Australia effort and we have already reduced our foreign aid in real terms, as we should. Can’t worry about everyone.

Our good friend Andrew Bartlett has the answer to this problem. It might even be termed the "Bartlett Solution". Mr Bartlett, when offering solutions to assist our farmers, said that if our farmers became unsustainable we should abandon. Let's apply the "Bartlett Solution" to Tuvalu: if it is now unsustainable let's abandon it.

Perhaps the Tuvaluvans might gain some comfort from the opinions of the following experts:

About a week and a half ago, this excellent report was published by the Canadian newspaper National Post. It focuses on a number of highly distinguished scholars/experts who have made various strong disputes regarding the IPCC findings.

I will list them here with links to the respective parts of the report that discusses their disputes:

1. Edward Wegman, Ph.D. degree in mathematical statistics, University of Iowa. Has served as editor or associate editor of numerous prestigious journals and has published more than 160 papers and eight books.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=22003a0d-37cc-4399-8bcc-39cd20bed2f6&k=0

2. Christopher Landsea doctor in atmospheric science from Colorado State University. Leading hurricane expert whose conclusions were ignored by the IPCC.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=ae9b984d-4a1c-45c0-af24-031a1380121a&k=0

3. Duncan Wingham PhD. in Physics, Bath and Leeds. He is a director of the NERC Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling and principal scientist of the European Space Agency CryoSat Satellite Mission.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=b228f4b0-a869-4f85-ba08-902b95c45dcf&k=0

4. Richard Lindzen PhD in applied mathematics, Harvard University. A professor of meteorology in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, he is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and a member of the National Research Council Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. He is also a consultant to the Global Modeling and Simulation Group at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, and a Distinguished Visiting Scientist at California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Prof. Lindzen is a recipient of the AMS's Meisinger, and Charney Awards, and AGU's Macelwane Medal. He is author or coauthor of over 200 scholarly papers and books.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=63ab844f-8c55-4059-9ad8-89de085af353&k=0

(continued below)

5. Henrik Svensmark is director of the Centre for Sun-Climate Research at the Danish Space Research Institute (DSRI). Previously, Dr. Svensmark was head of the sunclimate group at DSRI. He has held post doctoral positions in physics at University California Berkeley, Nordic Institute of Theoretical Physics, and the Niels Bohr Institute. In 1997, Dr Svensmark received the Knud Hojgaard Anniversary Research Prize and in 2001 the Energy-E2 Research Prize.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=fee9a01f-3627-4b01-9222-bf60aa332f1f&k=0

6. Nigel Weiss, professor emeritus of mathematical astrophysics in the University of Cambridge. Recipient of a Royal Society Citation, he is a past President of the Royal Astronomical Society, and a past Chairman of Cambridge's School of Physical Sciences.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=17fad0e2-6f6b-41f3-bdd8-8e9eeb015777&k=0

7. Prof. Henk Tennekes
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=9bc9a7c6-2729-4d07-9629-807f1dee479f&k=0

8. Habibullo Abdussamatov,physicist and a mathematician, head of the space research laboratory of the Russian Academies of Sciences' Pulkovo Observatory and of the International Space Station's Astrometry project, a long-term joint scientific research project of the Russian and Ukranian space agencies.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0

9. Astrophysicist Dr. Nir Shariv -
"Like many others, I was personally sure that CO2 is the bad culprit in the story of global warming. But after carefully digging into the evidence, I realized that things are far more complicated than the story sold to us by many climate scientists or the stories regurgitated by the media. In fact, there is much more than meets the eye."
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=069cb5b2-7d81-4a8e-825d-56e0f112aeb5&k=0

nice sceptic cut and paste job EV. and from such broad sources - all from the one website, and from the section called 'the deniers series' - all the same old fiddling with the fringe arguments, bamboozling figures (that might convince someone lazy without a science degree) and non-peer reviewed junk science.
i think the final quote of part x sums it up perfectly when he pins his hopes on about fusion reactors - a technology as yet non existent, seemingly only 'decades away' (theyve been saying that for decades) if ever.

your post didnt actually contribute anything to the text of the article,
thanks for trying

julatron;
Don't be so sure of your self;
What makes you think that it is decades away?

And why would you not accept that all the proliferation of Proletariat lies and deception and as well as your attempted reverse inference as to counter an argument be seen other than a boiled up hack job of Dialectis.

It has been well known for our time; 150 years of the Cycle of Cosmology and Astrophysics. It has also been know for many thousands of years via Civilizations that predate ours.

Until that Useless Idiot Ideology is crushed , it well may be in the Interest of Earth to keep such Knowledge away from the Looter / Witch doctor axiom for obvious reasons.

You do not want to know other than what you wish to fantasize about; (Thus Fanatics)
Perhaps a new definition of your science is needed if reality and fact does not suffice.

And OOO yes, Pacific Island deluge?

Has anyone else read how it is the Western Worlds responsibility for this occurrence and: FINSCAL responsibility lay there; so Give Me your Loot; or else.

Now, where else have I heard that?
What Dialectical Witchdoctor can conjure up such Hacked up Science to fit like a glove if Looting was not the intention?

There was a Nuremberg trial once to determine who is responsible

"your post didnt actually contribute anything to the text of the article,
thanks for trying
Posted by julatron, Friday, 16 February 2007 3:02:25 PM"

Except that everyone of them has to do with gullible warming, Co2 and the purported rise in sea levels.The Tuvuluans have been playing this little number of we are doomed for some years now, as a way to get more funds and attention. Pity about it being a beat up vis a vis AGW being the main cause.

And who cares if the one source referenced by EV compiles these reports together in a readily usable list. Only a dimwit would infer that that somehow diminishes what the respective authors have to say.

I would suggest that bigmal actually go to Funafuti Atoll, earn the trust of locals - they're sick and tired of parachute journalists and others descending on them to "tell their story", usually badly - listen respectfully, observe, ask highly informed, sceptical but polite questions, research the hard, rigorously peer-reviewed scientific literature to do with the many obvious changes to the local environment - some self-inflicted to be sure but others amplified by global warming's many and insidious effects - and then start commenting in an informed way about the plight of Tuvalu and other, similarly afflicted, countries.

As for the Canadian newspaper series, interesting, but sceptical readers should research that newspaper's editorial position on global warming generally. Arch-sceptics like Andrew Bolt and Christopher Pearson here should have their columns syndicated to that newspaper with no difficulties, except it's not a News Corp-owned outlet.

Is it *absolutely necessary* for major world polluters to inflict our environmental damage on peoples such as Tuvaluans and i-Kiribati?

Yes bigmal, those crafty Tuvaluans have the gullible completely sucked in, though I would doubt whether you or other denialists would care to stand in their wellies.

As for EV's links, ideally I would prefer the denialists to present evidence which has been tested and agrees with the data, and new hypotheses would also be welcome. It is much like serving up sausages in a breadroll and tom sauce, or with gravy, mashed spuds and fried onion: The intention is to suggest something new, when in truth the basic food is the same. Why is it that the denialists will stress that it is the underlying science which is of importance, then make posts which emphsise only the eminence of the scientists and not their arguments?

I like this link which shows the folly of placing the eminence of the scientist above the merit of the argument.

http://www.chsourcebook.com/articles/evidence.html

I'm not a climate change sceptic (nor 'realist'). I accept the phenomenon. However I'm less accepting that the plight these people find themselves in is due to CC. My understanding is that others looking at the problem blame the residents for excess ground water extraction, land use methods and the destruction of outlying reefs, allowing waves in. Then, separately, tectonic movements also impact the islands.

The article seems to imply that, given the author was up to his knees in water whereas before he would have been on dry land, the local sea level has risen 1m (at a guess) or more. This puzzles me. Can someone explain this to me: How can there be a tidal 'bump' in the ocean surface? These are ocean islands, not Venice. Sorry but water temperature rises and El Nino (which covers half the globe) don't cut it for me as explanations yet. But yes, we (the global community) will need to help these people whatever the cause of their plight.

PeterJH writes -

"I'm not a climate change sceptic (nor 'realist'). [snip] My understanding is that others looking at the problem blame the residents for excess ground water extraction, land use methods and the destruction of outlying reefs, allowing waves in."

Very briefly, WWII excavations & related works seriously damaged Funafuti - the 'borrow pits' (Taisala), reef channel blastings, port works, etc. - shattering the freshwater lens beneath the atoll, interrupting tidal flows bringing sand to beaches, etc. Plus population pressures, 'urban drift' from the Outer Islands to Funafuti, and a serious solid waste problem they're trying to fix now.

"Then, separately, tectonic movements also impact the islands."

Negligible and not relevant to Funafuti, which is perched on an ancient volcanic peak aeons extinct. Extremely geologically stable.

"The article seems to imply that, given the author was up to his knees in water whereas before he would have been on dry land, the local sea level has risen 1m (at a guess) or more. This puzzles me."

Local sea water seepage flooding happens every year at extreme high tide times. Had last Feb's tides been accompanied by local severe storms, it could have been much worse. Parts of Funafuti are reclaimed swamps, using WWII technologies & then known hydrology. The whole mix is being amplified by the effects of global warming.

"[snip] How can there be a tidal 'bump' in the ocean surface? These are ocean islands, not Venice. Sorry but water temperature rises and El Nino (which covers half the globe) don't cut it for me as explanations yet."

Go look up reliable hydrology, climatology, and related 'sea sciences' on how and why sea level rises and falls seem to defy basic logic. Tonga's had the highest recorded sea level rises over 13 years according to the SEAFRAME monitors. Could this be, in part, because Tonga's close to undersea volcanoes and an active tectonic plate?

"But yes, we (the global community) will need to help these people whatever the cause of their plight."

Agree entirely.

tsk tsk, Ev. This is the thread today where you've put this. Do you have an opinion of your own for OLO?

Put some perspective into the argument,
One way would be to study the Islands history; after all, it has a genesis.
Secondly the same argument could be said in the case for N Z, one day you could be standing up to your knees in water , but now you are looking across a rock terrain with the water line 200 meters in front of you.

NZ is being pushed up, so in any given tectonic plate principle a gap will appear somewhere else that will sink.

Case and E.g.;
The Gulf of Santorin; 1783, it has sunk by 1200 feet. Not the Ice Melting.
Port of Sindree Indus. 1819,
Volcanic Eruption Vesuvius 1737.

Greenland; Islands appearing after earth quake; disappearing back to the depths in 4 days. Not magic.

Here is a quote:
The Gulf of Santorin, in the Grecian Archipelago, has been for two thousand years a scene of active volcanic operations. Pliny informs us that in the year 186 B.C. the island of "Old Kaimeni," or the Sacred Isle, was lifted up from the sea; and in A.D. 19 the island of "Thia" (the Divine) made its appearance. In A.D. 1573 another island was created, called "the small sunburnt island." In 1848 a volcanic convulsion of three months' duration created a great shoal; an earthquake destroyed many houses in Thera, and the sulphur and hydrogen issuing from the sea killed 50 persons and 1000 domestic animals. A recent examination of these islands shows that the whole mass of Santorin has sunk, since its projection from the sea, over 1200 feet.
T B C.

Fester,

Your reference to a document entitled "Evidence versus Nonesense ; The Scientific Method" is actually spot on. All it needs is the data and analysis to support the particular contention is being made.

Pity that the evidence for Tuvalu going under as a direct result of gullible warming alone, is not that strong.

Bigmal

I think that col rouge and others pointing out the association with population growth are on the money, but as this is the truth that dare not be spoken, what else is the media to do? The Solomon Islands are certainly a basket case with their 2.61% (2006 est) population growth rate,

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/bp.html

but I suspect that any sensible journo would feel safer dragging a wooden cross to the Kaaba than stating the bleeding obvious. Even the sceptical Baliunas and Soon didn't seem interested in stating the bleeding obvious.

www.tuvaluislands.com/news/archived/2002/2002-02-01.htm

Cont Quote:
In 1783 Iceland was visited by convulsions more tremendous than any recorded in the modern annals of that country. About a month previous to the eruption on the main-land a submarine volcano burst forth in the sea, at a distance of thirty miles from the shore. It ejected so much pumice that the sea was covered with it for a distance of 150 miles, and ships were considerably impeded in their course. A new island was thrown up, consisting of high cliffs, which was claimed by his Danish Majesty, and named "Nyöe," or the New Island; but before a year had elapsed it sunk beneath the sea, leaving a reef of rocks thirty fathoms under water.
The earthquake of 1783 in Iceland destroyed 9000 people out of a population of 50,000; twenty villages were consumed by fire or inundated by water, and a mass of lava thrown out "greater than the entire bulk of Mont Blanc."

In 1831 a new island was born in the Mediterranean, near the coast of Sicily. It was called Graham's Island. It came up with an earthquake, and "a water-spout sixty feet high and eight hundred yards in circumference rising from the sea." In about a month the island was two hundred feet high and three miles in circumference; it soon, however, stink beneath the sea.
End of Quote;

There many hundreds of these events, and to state otherwise is silly and naive.

The one difference in our time is Communications; a dastardly deed thanks to Western Technology;
But at least when ever it hits the fan, aid can be sent, unlike in historical times, everyone just perished; and some still wallow in maintaining the Ignorance. Or upholding the guilt undeserved.
But when a corrupt discipline of a Monologist/ Paleontologist, becomes a Vocal point in all matters pertaining to Physics in all categories and can’t add up 1+1 and get a true answer; other than the art of science fiction.
Then Proletariat Lobotomized fits quite well as a description. And be no longer heard.

Bennie said, "tsk tsk, Ev. This is the thread today where you've put this. Do you have an opinion of your own for OLO?"

I placed those set of links here within ten minutes of posting them on the other thread actually, not on different days as you suggest. For over a year I've been posting on this OLO forum - and yes, what I post states or develops my opinions. And for the record, in over a year of posting that's the first time I've placed the same post on two different threads.

Maleko said: "As for the Canadian newspaper series, interesting, but sceptical readers should research that newspaper's editorial position on global warming generally. Arch-sceptics like Andrew Bolt and Christopher Pearson here should have their columns syndicated to that newspaper with no difficulties, except it's not a News Corp-owned outlet."

However the Canadian National Post says: "Lawrence Solomon, whose column appears every Wednesday in the Financial Post, is one of Canada's leading environmentalists. His book, The Conserver Solution (Doubleday), which popularized the Conserver Society concept in the late 1970s, became the manual for those interested in incorporating environmental factors into economic life. An advisor to President Carter's Task Force on the Global Environment (the Global 2000 Report) in the late 1970's, he has since been at the forefront of movements to reform foreign aid, stop nuclear power expansion and toll roads. Mr. Solomon is a founder and managing director of Energy Probe Research Foundation and the executive director of its Urban Renaissance Institute and Consumer Policy Institute divisions. He has been a columnist for the Globe and Mail, a contributor to the Wall Street Journal, the editor and publisher of the award-winning The Next City magazine, and the author or co-author of several books."

oh Ev, it should've read 'this is the second thread today where you've put this'. Given the flood of articles on this topic it'd be easy to carpetbomb the lot.

But I don't foresee the same joy arising from G.W. that you do. "If it was suddenly announced Germany will be an average of 5 degrees hotter every year from now on there would be celebrations in the streets.." Nosiree. I reckon there would be a lot of problems once the snow melts, the lakes flow during winter, and centuries of culture evaporates.

A friend of mine worked on Tuvalu in the 80s and married a Tuvuluan, whose family then joined her in Australia. Even at that time, none of the land was more than about 3 metres above sea-level. I think the resident population is about 10,000, with most of their income coming from relatives working overseas. Pacific islands have been coming and going for millenia, humans and their ancestors have been migrating since time immemorial in response to changing conditions, I don't think that global climate policy should be determined by possible loss of habitat for 10,000 Tuvuluans, however nice they are.

I think Queen Victoria had more compassion than some of you. Some of you self rightious mealie mouthed grumps are shuffling around for evidence fabricating some story that the Islanders are just tattle tailing.

Even after the mutiny of the Bounty, and the population on Pitcairn Island were stranded there nearly starving and thirsting to death, did the English authorities under Queen Victoria treat them like criminals?

No!

Queen Victoria moved them compassionately to Norfolk Island: a larger more sustainable Island with water and food.

It is interesting that Canada NZ and Australia are taking an interest in this. Again, this is more evidence that my other thread that discusses the need of a Pacific Economic Union between Canada, Australia and New Zealand is in the best interest of us all.

10,000 people of this Island may seem too much for Australia. You assume they all want to come here. Some may prefer to go to Canada or NZ. There has to be a positive solution and a gradual evacuation plan between Pacific countries.

The Island is sinking and they are crying for help. So, then, brain surgeons, what is the responsible and civilised thing to do?

Some curious inconsistenciesby the author. The latest IPCC "report" is nothing more than a 30 page brochure which will hardly weigh 2 kg or whatever. The real report won't be out for 6 months.

Also if the highest point on the island is 3.7m then it is 3.7m above median tide height, not median high tide. And if a 3.4 metre tide came in then it is only likely to be less than 2m above the mid-tide mark. And that would still leave about 1.7m spare, not just "socks and sandles" from the highest point.

Ergo, the man has a penchant for not letting facts get in the way of a good story.

Moreover, if sea levels do rise significantly, it will be none other than the IPCC that has driven the nails in their national coffin. That is because the IPCC refuses to grant any credits for the volume of CO2 that is absorbed by territorial oceans. Tuvalu has 1.3 million Km2 of exclusive territorial waters which absorb 5.54 tonnes of carbon or 20t CO2/km2 each year. So all up this tiny nation is absorbing 26 million tonnes of CO2 that someone else has emitted.

So the IPCC is deliberately excluding Tuvalu from the carbon credits market that would, at $40/tonne of carbon, earn them $288 million a year. And with that sort of money they could dredge the mine tailings out of the Fly river in PNG and raise the whole 2600ha of the country by an extra metre and have oodles of change left over.

Look at the numbers. 2600 hectares x 10,000 m3 = 26 million m3 @ $50/m3 = $1.3 billion or only 4.5 years worth of carbon credits.

But are the sea levels at Tuvalu and Kiribati rising?

Prof John Connell, head of Geosciences at the University of Sydney, who has monitored this for decades, is on record in 2006 saying the sea around Tuvalu has not risen.

He said in 2006 that the actual evidence of environmental changes in many Pacific Islands is scant, there is no common pattern to environmental change across a wider region, and sea level rise cannot be the culprit in such diverse and scattered places.

More information at www.usyd.edu.au/news/84.html?newsstoryid=847

Good points Cafog and Bigmal.

I also seem to recall a story about certain scientists shifting the sea level measuring gear because it wasn't showing the amount of increase they wanted.

One must suspect that Tuvaluan sea level rise is right up there with the Samoan teenagers sex stories that Margaret Meade was so keen to publish, so keen to bask in the limelight over, but so reluctant to admit that she had been taken in, hook, line and sinker.