Hi AC,

Consider these two scenarios.

Scenario one. Russia leaves Ukraine and all hostilities stop between the two nations.

Scenario two. The US and Israel stop their siege of Iran. Iran holds traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to ransom for safe passage. Iran maintains the control and abuse of its citizens, including having school children chant "death to America, death to Israel" as part of their school days. Iran maintains its role as an international sponsor of terrorism, which has included acts against Australia, although the US and Israel have always been the main targets. Iran continues its development of nuclear weapons. Iran will do all these things with the support of Russia and China.

The Victory Parade in Red Square should be quite a spectacle this year.

Hi Fester,
I did see your comment to me.
I haven't been keeping as good tabs on Russia and Ukraine for the last month or so, and I had been getting the feeling that Russias war in Ukraine seemed to be slipping or making little progress.

I don't know all the reasons for it and haven't been watching daily battle map updates to watch the daily progress.
I did read that Ukraine has lost 150500 killed and wounded from the 1st January till yesterday...

I've considered your scenarios.
Scenario 1 is unrealistic. Russia will not give up territory its holds which is already considered Russian in their constitution without force.

Scenario 2 is more complicated and I think there's a number of misconceptions there.

'Iran holds traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to ransom for safe passage.'
- It's not being held to ransom, it's a change of management policies.
Certain nations that supported sanctions and regime change and helped facilitate a plan to 'destroy their civilisation' must now pay reparations / reconstruction costs for an illegal war of aggression made against them, via tolls.

"Iran maintains the control and abuse of its citizens, including having school children chant 'death to America, death to Israel" as part of their school days."
- I don't think its as bad as you make it out to be, and I don't have much of a problem with what they say if there's merit behind it, they're words not actions.
Gaza isn't words it's a deliberate choice.
'Iran maintains its role as an international sponsor of terrorism'
I don't necessarily consider defending people from invasion and occupation / as equating to terrorism.
I don't support Israels genocide and ethnic cleansing for land theft.
I don't accept the Australian and Israeli Mossad claims that the synogogue door attack was Iranian state sponsored terrorism.
I'm not certain Iran were developing nuclear weapons, (US intelligence agencies say they weren't) or whether they wanted a bargaining chip to get sanctions removed, but if they weren't maybe they should've been.

Hi AC,

The point of the scenarios was to suggest that Russia can get out of Ukraine more easily than the US and Israel can get out of Iran.

As far as Ukraine is concerned, the advantage has gone one way and another. Currently it seems to be with Ukraine. There seems to be a more effective array of drones and missiles, with much increased range, employed with effective strategies. Jamming technologies are making Russia's weapons much less accurate. Russia is also losing troops faster than they can be replaced, so another mobilisation might be needed. Things will probably change, but how much advantage might Ukraine gain before they do?