Agree with the argument, but there have been some who argue that Russia's demographic position, or decline, is even worse than stated.

Many Russians would be living more or less permanently in EU etc., but still registered at their Russian address, hence still counted into the population while there is no functioning NOM or net migration mechanism (same for EU Schengen nations too). This leads to the suggestion that the population may be overestimated by 10%?

Further, as mentioned, decline in fertility amongst ethnic Russians but other minorities may have higher fertility rates?

Meanwhile, working age cohort passed the demographic sweet spot and a precipitous decline started pre Covid, see graph below, since then war and emigration of working age https://data.oecd.org/chart/70Ps

Andras,

Russia has trashed its economy. The sanctions are really biting, about $1T of foreign investment has fled and is unlikely to come back for decades. Its airlines are stuffed and will probably never recover as no one will ever lease planes to Russia again. Russia has lost about 200 000 men killed or permanently injured. Its army has been badly hurt and will take decades to recover. Roughly 2/3 of Russia's T72 variants have been lost and Russia is sending T62s and BT 50s into battle, both from the 1960s.

I see that there are warrants being issued for Russian war criminals. Russia has become the pariah of the world both politically and economically. No businessman would touch Russia with a barge pole.

If I was a Russian I would want to see Putin in front of a firing squad.

Shadowminister,

Russia still has a very large army in Ukraine. It is far from being a pushover. What is hurting the Russians most currently is a shortage of ammunition. Western countries need to keep up the flow of weapons to Ukraine. A counteroffensive will need a lot of weapons and good planning.

Russia still has a large army in Ukraine, but much of its fighting capability has been destroyed. In particular, Ukraine has focused on destroying its tanks, BMPs, artillery and supply networks.

For example, Russia started with about 3300 reasonably modern tanks and now has about 1500 left including several hundred upgraded T62s from the 1960s. Most of its originally trained troops have been killed or seriously wounded. The advances they have made have occurred have used waves of untrained mobilised troops with resultant horrific casualties.

Near Andrivka in the last day a big attack with 20 odd tanks was launched by the Russians but stopped after 10 tanks were destroyed and many soldiers.

Russia's economy is in serious trouble and cannot make enough equipment or ammunition to even replace 1/5th of what is used or destroyed.

Russia will lose the war and I guess that Silovik will hand over Putin for trial.